In an era of escalating crises and resource constraints, acting ahead of predictable disasters offers a powerful source of hope. Anticipatory action (AA) is about impact and optimism about the future. It empowers vulnerable communities to mitigate imminent disasters, saves lives, preserves dignity, and safeguardes development gains. It leverages data and technology to capture efficiencies, delivering tangible results for people, finances, and systems.
Consider for instance Shaheda’s story from Bangladesh. Last July, she received a silo drum before predicted floods from a Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF)-funded project carried out by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). This allowed her to protect livestock feed, seeds and other valuables. With her livestock surviving and her seeds intact, she was able to replant her crops and secure her family’s recovery after the waters receded. In the same part of Bangladesh, Renubala used cash aid provided before the floods to buy food and materials to build a raft to protect her family and essential belongings. She was able to stay and ensured her two children’s education was uninterrupted.
Anticipatory action is not only lifesaving but also cost-efficient. By acting ahead of disasters, humanitarian efforts can minimize long-term recovery costs, protect livelihoods, and reduce logistical expenses. Small, strategic actions, like providing drought-resistant seeds or reinforcing shelters, boost resilience to future shocks and reduce aid dependency.
Pre-arranged financing and pre-planned activities ensure that resources are allocated efficiently and at the right time. Once anticipatory actions are underway, humanitarians can focus on saving and protecting lives, spending less time on bureaucracy.
Scaling up and mainstreaming
To reap these benefits, anticipatory action is expanding rapidly. By 2023, the humanitarian community counted 107 projects across 47 countries.
Between 2020 and the end of 2024, CERF cumulatively committed $224 million as pre-arranged funding for 22 anticipatory action frameworks in 20 countries and disbursed $109 million for AA framework activations.
Last year, investments to embed anticipatory action through risk-informed humanitarian response planning has also gained momentum. Some Humanitarian Response Plans (HRP) now include anticipatory action provisions, including Nigeria, Somalia, Afghanistan, Chad, Burkina Faso and Mozambique, among others. Global clusters are drafting guidance and regional and national anticipatory action working groups are being set up, often as part of existing UN-coordinated structures.
Financing anticipatory action
As anticipatory action gains traction, the next challenge is ensuring sustainable and flexible funding. And while progress has been made, with financing tripling over the past three years, the full potential remains untapped, with anticipatory action representing less than one per cent of humanitarian funding currently invested. Pre-arranged financing through mechanisms like CERF and pooled funds must be expanded.
CERF currently pre-arranges some $128 million for anticipatory action frameworks and in 2024 released almost $37 million ahead of floods in Bangladesh, Chad, Nepal and Niger, and droughts in Ethiopia, Somalia and Timor Leste. While CERF is key, other humanitarian pooled funds increasingly support anticipatory action, for example, the OCHA-managed Country-Based Pooled Funds (CBPF) (for example in Afghanistan and Nigeria), as well as the newly established regional pooled funds.
To meet the scale of future challenges, more flexible funding is needed. Contributions to OCHA-managed pooled funds, including CERF, the CERF Climate Action Account, the Regional Humanitarian Pooled Funds, and CBPFs, are essential to ensure resources are pre-arranged and accessible when they are most needed. Read more on Anticipatory action | OCHA.
Grand Bargain
Institutionalizing anticipatory action also requires systemic changes in the way humanitarian funding is allocated. Recognizing this, a Grand Bargain Caucus bringing together donors, UN Agencies and NGOs agreed to work together to substantially increase funding for anticipatory action; to track the funding; and to improve coordination. The work begins now to turn these commitments into deliverables.
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