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Current People in Need3.9 million
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Current People Targeted1.9 million
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Current Requirements (US$)$214.7 million
Analysis of the context, crisis and needs
The Grand Sud of Madagascar was rocked by consecutive droughts during the 2019/2020 and 2020/2021 rainy seasons and is now faced with the prospect of a late start to the 2022/2023 rainy season. Following a massive scale-up in humanitarian assistance from January to May 2022, food insecurity and malnutrition improved in the Grand Sud, and no district has been in Emergency phase (IPC 4) since May 2022.
However, the situation has remained fragile. The planting of crops in 2022 was delayed by a poor start to the season and, although crops were eventually planted following the rains brought by cyclones and storms, the heavy rains also contributed to a resurgence of migratory locusts and good conditions for fall armyworm. As a result, more than 1.2 million people were projected to be in Crisis (IPC phase 3) and above from September to November 2022.
Grand Sud, Madagascar
Sand covers many plantations in the Grand Sud of Madagascar, but people try to plant anyway. Sandstorms have transformed arable land into wasteland across wide areas in the region.
OCHA/Viviane RakotoarivonyCyclone-affected areas in the Grand Sud-Est are still recovering from the devastation caused by two consecutive cyclones in 2022, which left people facing Crisis (IPC phase 3) levels of food insecurity for the first time and caused production losses and damages estimated at more than US$160 million, including livelihoods, housing and school infrastructure.
Mananjary, Madagascar
People displaced by Cyclone Batsirai receive hot meals at an elementary school.
OCHA/Viviane RakotoarivonyProjected situation in 2023 and beyond
Looking ahead to 2023, the situation in the Grand Sud is expected to deteriorate once again. Rainfall during the beginning of the 2022/2023 rainy season is forecasted to be less than average, coinciding with the start of the agriculture season. Households in the region are already facing significant limitations in access to food due to the absence of any meaningful cassava and sweet potato harvests, rising food prices, and well below-average income-generating opportunities, according to FEWSNET. The war in Ukraine has also caused a significant increase in oil and food prices in Madagascar.
In the hardest-hit areas, humanitarian assistance has been the primary reason why families have been able to stave off Emergency and/or Catastrophe food insecurity. However, funding is not secured for 2023, and needs are expected to rise throughout the lean season, which will peak from January to April. The risk of displacement remains high, especially during the hunger gap season, as it is one of the most common coping mechanisms for drought-affected families. Should the 2022/2023 harvests fail, needs will also increase over the course of the year and rise precipitously at the onset of the next lean season in the fourth quarter.
The on-going cyclone season, which will last until April 2023, may also drive additional needs as two out of every three people in Madagascar live in areas prone to cyclones and floods. Although the forecast indicates that this cyclone season is likely to be close to, or below, the annual average, the national contingency plan for 2022-2023 predicts the passage of two climate events, affecting about 800,000 people in the country.
Grand Sud, Madagascar
A family searches for drinking water in Amboasary District.
OCHA/Viviane RakotoarivonyResponse priorities in 2023
Given the scale, duration and severity of the drought in the Grand Sud of Madagascar, humanitarian assistance has been—and remains—critical. Partners scaled up their responses significantly in 2021 and 2022, averting the worst outcomes and avoiding a return to IPC phase 5 (Catastrophic) level needs. In 2022, humanitarian partners responded to both the devastating drought in the Grand Sud of Madagascar, as well as to the destruction and needs caused by cyclones which impacted the Grand Sud-Est of the country. From January to September, 1.75 million people were reached with vital assistance, including more than 1.5 million who received food assistance, more than 668,300 who received cash transfers, and nearly 225,000 people provided with improved access to clean water. Women and girls were the focus of targeted interventions, with 164,600 people reached with awareness-raising efforts to prevent gender-based violence and promote reproductive health, at least 15,200 survivors of violence and sexual abuse received psychosocial, legal, and medical support and more than 9,300 pregnant women receiving four antenatal care visits. Likewise, children were a specific focus in the response, with 24,730 children vaccinated against preventable disease and 98,000 children receiving school kits.
Madagascar FA
In 2023, the focus of the response will remain on saving lives and alleviating suffering due to the drought and cyclone crises, with a focus on food security, nutrition, health and WASH. At the same time, partners will ensure the centrality of protection—particularly given the consequences of the drought for women and girls’ safety—and education, with schools providing both a safe haven for drought-affected children and a vital entry point for referrals to other programmes, including nutrition and child protection.