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Current Requirements (US$)$1.09 billion
Analysis of the context, crisis and needs
Somalia’s prolonged humanitarian crisis is characterized by ongoing conflicts, climate shocks including floods and drought, communicable disease outbreaks and weak social protection. Since the beginning of 2020, two additional shocks have contributed to a deterioration of humanitarian conditions: the desert locust infestation and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Flooding displaced 840,000 people in the first 10 months of 2020 and destroyed infrastructure, property, and 144,000 hectares of agricultural land. Somalia also experienced the worst desert locust invasion in 25 years; tens of thousands of hectares of cropland and pasture were damaged, with potentially severe consequences for agriculture and pastoral-based livelihoods.
Barderee, Somalia
Women queue for food supplies at a Mother Child Health and Nutrition centre in Barderee, Gedo region. The programme aims to treat moderately malnourished children and women. WFP carried out a pre-drought assessment to better understand the situation on the ground, and works with partners and authorities in Somalia to provide food assistance to vulnerable households.
WFP/Kevin OumaCommunities living in conflict areas were severely impacted by armed violence. Civilians bore the brunt through death and injury, property destruction, taxation of communities (including through forced child recruitment), land grabbing, destruction of livelihoods, limited freedom of movement, and limited access to services and humanitarian assistance.
COVID-19 directly impacted the lives of Somalis, worsening patterns of vulnerability. This came on top of ongoing disease outbreaks such as cholera, measles and, recently, vaccine-derived poliovirus. Health-care providers have faced increased burdens and costs, forced to alter the way care is provided. Restrictions also disrupted the face-to-face delivery of humanitarian assistance, impacting assessments, targeting and the quality of the response. However, partners successfully scaled up mobile money transfers and transitioned to assessments via mobile phones.
The number of people in need has consistently increased over the last three years, from 4.2 million in 2019 to 5.2 million in 2020 and 5.9 million in 2021. This is further reflected in the number of displaced people in 2020: 1.2 million. This is the highest number over the past three years, with 884,000 in 2018 and 770,000 in 2019. Other factors, such as gender, age and disability, add to the level of vulnerability, risks and barriers faced. As such, they need to be considered in the humanitarian response.
Projected situation in 2021 and beyond
Based on the risk analysis, it is highly likely that climate shocks will continue to affect the most vulnerable people in Somalia in 2021. Drought conditions are expected in early 2021 as La Niña is likely to cause decreased rainfall in the Deyr rainy season (October-December), affecting crop production. Given the fragility of food security in the country, this will likely have a devastating impact well beyond the beginning of 2021. Further, despite ongoing control measures, there is a high likelihood that conditions will remain favorable for locusts to continue breeding and developing, increasing food insecurity and the effects on livelihoods.
Recent climate events show that even during drought conditions, heavy and localized rains are likely to cause damage and displacement. Flooding is expected to occur again during the 2021 Gu rainy season (April-June). However, it may not be as severe as in 2020. The number of people affected by flooding has increased significantly in recent years, with 840,000 displaced in 2020, 416,000 in 2019 and 281,000 in 2018.
Evolution of needs and requirements (2016 - 2021)
The COVID-19 pandemic, along with other communicable diseases and an ongoing outbreak of cholera, will continue to affect the most vulnerable Somalis and strain the already weak health system. According to a WHO global estimate, 20 per cent of Somalia’s population will suffer from the direct and indirect impacts of the pandemic in 2021.
Armed conflict and insecurity are expected to continue to drive needs and cause displacement while simultaneously impeding effective humanitarian operations and access to vulnerable or marginalized communities. Due to the security situation in Yemen and sporadic instabilities in Ethiopia, it is expected that Somalia will continue to receive refugees and asylum seekers. Over 28,000 refugees and asylum seekers are projected to require assistance and support in 2021.
Response priorities in 2021
Despite operational and access challenges, humanitarian partners reached over 2.3 million people out of 3 million targeted in 2020. For 2021, humanitarian partners anticipate an increase in the number of people in need, driven by climate shocks, conflict and increased vulnerability. The aim, therefore, is to assist 4 million people, including IDPs, refugees and returnees, with access to basic services and livelihoods support, while providing life-saving food assistance to 3.1 million IDPs and non-IDPs in crisis and emergency phases of food insecurity.
Operationalizing humanitarian-development-peace collaboration
Significant strides were made in 2020 to operationalize the humanitarian-development-peace nexus in Somalia. Led by the Integrated Office of the DSRSG/RC/HC and OCHA under the guidance of the RC/HC, a high-level Nexus Steering Committee is being established informally alongside the Somalia Aid Architecture. The committee will provide advice and direction for the successful implementation of the nexus. On the ground, humanitarian and development actors are making progress on coordinating flood response, mitigation and preparedness measures. Devastating floods are becoming more intense and frequent in Somalia, exacerbated by climate change and causing recurring displacement, income loss and property damage. The response led by the Government, local authorities and the international community addresses the most urgent needs. However, more focus is needed on root causes and longer-term development to enable a sustainable solution. A Water and Flood Task Force was formed, bringing together humanitarian and development actors, including Government officials and donors, to develop a road map on flood response. It aims to improve humanitarian-development coordination, assess future flood response priorities, and identify best practice opportunities on flood mitigation and river management. This will include a coordinated approach to determine whether activities sit under the HRP or the UN Cooperation Framework.
A key response priority is to ensure that 2.8 million people receive critical, life-saving assistance so their health, nutrition and short-term capacity to survive are not compromised. Children under 5 years of age, vulnerable women and persons with disabilities are among the most vulnerable in IDP and non-IDP populations.
The lack of protection from violence, abuse and neglect remains an important consequence of the current humanitarian crisis for up to 4 million people. The centrality of protection is therefore a key priority across the humanitarian response, including strengthening the overall protection environment for all affected populations via protection mainstreaming, accountability to affected populations, human rights and eviction monitoring.
Further reading
Source: OCHA
Source: Humanitarian Insight
Source: Financial Tracking Service