These young girls and their families were displaced by violence to the Tajikan IDP site, near Kandahar City. Most people taking refuge here fled violence in Zabul and some have been displaced for more than six years. They are relieved to be safe, but urgent needs include shelter, farming supplies, water, sanitation and hygiene. One woman said: “Where we came from, we had beautiful green gardens, we had a good life until the conflict." Another said: “You can find malnourished children in every second and third home." This photo was taken November 2019. OCHA/Charlotte Cans
In Eastern Africa, conflict and violence continued to force people to flee their homes in 2021, including around 9.6 million internally displaced people and 4.7 million refugees and asylum seekers. Every country in the region is either in conflict or neighbouring a country in conflict. In 2021, the crisis in Ethiopia drove millions of people from their homes, causing a spike in displacement in a region where the crises in Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan had already forced millions of people to flee in recent years. The Horn of Africa also remains a major route for mixed movements to and from the Arabian Peninsula and to Europe.
Grave violations against civilians continued to be committed in the region, including conflict-related sexual violence. The conflict in Ethiopia saw reports of widespread use of rape as a tactic of war, including in Tigray by Eritrean and Government forces and in Amhara by Tigrayan forces. In South Sudan, gender-based violence is deliberately used to humiliate women and girls; over 65 per cent of South Sudanese women have experienced sexual or physical violence—double the global average.
The region is experiencing a major food insecurity crisis, with more than 100,000 people in South Sudan and 400,000 people in Ethiopia facing Catastrophic food insecurity (IPC Phase 5), according to the latest IPC analysis. At least 33.8 million people are severely food insecure, and an estimated 12.8 million children are acutely malnourished, across the region. Despite significant progress, the severe desert locust upsurge continues to threaten livelihoods and food security in Somalia, Ethiopia and, to a lesser extent, Kenya. At the same time, multiple areas of the region have been impacted by back-to-back below-average rainy seasons and are likely to see drought conditions increase in the period ahead.
Core health services, including immunization, sexual and reproductive health care and long-term and palliative care, have been jeopardized during COVID-19 and as a result of ongoing conflict in many areas. Meanwhile, COVID-19 containment measures have compounded the challenges faced by children, especially girls, whose risk of child marriage has increased by 25 per cent due to school closures. COVID-19 has also sparked a precipitous rise in gender-based violence.
In Southern Africa, communities are on the coal face of the global climate crisis. During the 2020-2021 cyclone season in the South-West Indian Ocean, tropical weather systems affected at least 681,000 people and brought heavy rainfall to Southern Africa, including in Botswana, Eswatini, Madagascar, Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe, causing death, displacement, flooding, landslides and damage to homes, infrastructure and livelihoods.
In December 2020, at least 96,000 people across the region were affected by Tropical Storm Chalane, which hit Madagascar (139 people affected), Mozambique (73,254) and Zimbabwe (22,683). In January 2021, Tropical Cyclone Eloise, swept through large parts of the region, bringing heavy rainfall and strong winds, including in Madagascar, Mozambique and South Africa. Eloise killed at least 12 people (one in Madagascar and 11 in Mozambique) and affected more than 467,000 people across the region, including 2,800 in Madagascar, 441,690 in Mozambique, 3,200 in South Africa and 20,270 in Zimbabwe. Mozambique’s central provinces, which were still recovering from the devastation wrought by Cyclone Idai in 2019, were hardest-hit by Tropical Cyclone Eloise. The heavy rains also exacerbated the African Migratory Locust (AML) outbreak in Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
Beira, Mozambique
A child shelters from rising water in the Praia Nova neighbourhood in Beira, Mozambique. The country had to face Cyclone Eloise while still recovering from the devastation caused by category 4 Cyclone Idai in March 2019, which claimed hundreds of lives and affected 3 million people across Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe.
UNICEF/Ricardo FrancoIn some parts of the region—especially southern Madagascar and southern Angola—erratic and uneven rainfall has caused severe drought. The Grand Sud of Madagascar is experiencing its most severe drought in more than 40 years, leaving an estimated 1.3 million people severely food insecure—more than double the number in the same period of 2020—of whom at least 28,000 are facing Catastrophic (IPC Phase 5) food insecurity, according to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis. In a worst-case scenario, Ambovombe-Androy District will be at risk of famine from October, according to an IPC analysis carried out in June 2021. In Angola, hunger is on the rise as the country experiences its worst drought in decades, with below average rainfall in Cuanza Sul, Benguela, Huambo, Namibe and Huíla provinces driving rising needs in the western-southern part of the country.
COVID-19 has had major consequences for Southern Africa. South Africa has had the highest number of recorded COVID-19 cases and deaths on the African continent, while COVID-19 containment measures have caused protection concerns and hampered access to basic healthcare, including for sexual and reproductive health.
Meanwhile, the conflict in Mozambique continues to cause a large-scale humanitarian crisis, with potential regional ramifications. Despite the recent intervention by SADC and Rwandan forces, the situation is expected to remain highly volatile in the coming months, and more than 745,000 people remain displaced by insecurity and violence. At the same time, other countries in Southern Africa are facing challenging domestic situations, especially Eswatini, which has faced significant civil unrest since May 2020.
Projected situation in 2022 and beyond
In Eastern Africa, needs are likely to rise in 2022 due to conflict, political fragility and economic challenges. The conflict in Ethiopia is likely to have major repercussions, with displacement and needs expected to rise unless a negotiated settlement is realized. In Sudan, the situation is precarious following the military coup in October 2021, and needs were already increasing due to conflict, climatic events and the economic crisis. In Somalia, heightened political tensions and the continued military offensive against Al-Shabaab in central and southern areas, continue to drive displacement, while Kenya is approaching highly contested elections and the continued threat of Al-Shabaab. In South Sudan, despite the ongoing implementation of the 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict on the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS), conflict continues to impact communities in multiple parts of the country.
At the same time, the climate crisis is expected to have devastating consequences for communities in Eastern Africa in the year ahead. Four countries in the Horn of Africa (Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan) are among the most vulnerable 10 per cent to climate change, according to ND-GAIN. In South Sudan, historical floods—which have inundated large swathes of the country for the third time running—have impacted an estimated 623,000 people in 21 counties since May 2021, with the hardest-hit states including Jonglei, Unity and Northern Bahr el Ghazal. In some areas, the 2021 rains arrived even before the 2020 floods had fully receded. Elsewhere, in parts of Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia, communities have already experienced two below-average rainy seasons and are likely to endure a third in the coming months, heightening the possibility of a dramatically deepening drought and a return to the levels of need seen during 2016 and 2017.
Jur River County, South Sudan
A young girl grinds flour from sorghum to make food for her family displaced by intercommunal conflict in South Sudan’s Jur River County.
OCHA/Anthony BurkeIn Southern Africa, the 2021-2022 cyclone season is expected to see the development of 8 to 12 weather systems (tropical storms and cyclones), of which 4 to 6 could become tropical cyclones. Recent years have highlighted the possibility of cyclones forming in the south-west Indian Ocean that are stronger, carry more rain, and take different paths than has historically been the case. Madagascar and Mozambique are at greatest risk for cyclonic activity, given their locations. However, as the 2020-2021 season proved, other countries may be impacted and, with a weak La Niña predicted to persist from December 2021 to February 2022, the risk of tropical storms and flash flooding is heightened, especially in parts of Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Eswatini and Malawi.
While above-average rainfall is predicted across much of the region—which should lead to favourable maize harvests in multiple countries—southern Madagascar and southern Angola are expected to continue to face drought. In both of these locations, there is a high probability of humanitarian needs increasing significantly as the countries enter the peak hunger gap from January to April in 2022, and potentially beyond, should the next harvest be below average or fail.
Meanwhile, humanitarian needs are likely to remain high in northern Mozambique, where the conflict situation is still volatile, despite the recapturing of territory by the Government and allied foreign forces in the second half of 2021. At the same time, political challenges are expected to persist in several countries in the region, especially in Eswatini, where people’s access to essential services has been hampered by civil unrest.
Source: OCHA
