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Analysis of the context, crisis and needs
Following the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan and the establishment of governance by the de facto authorities (DfA) in August 2021, there has been a major, broad-based deterioration of the humanitarian situation across the country, with both rural and urban areas in crisis. While conflict levels have dropped significantly, security incidents and attacks by non-State armed groups continue, and the human rights situation, particularly for women and girls, has continued to deteriorate under the policies of the DfA. The legacy of decades of war continues to impact the population; Afghanistan now has some of the world’s highest levels of disability and contamination from unexploded ordnance.
Afghanistan is also in the grips of a climate change-induced crisis. The continuation of drought has drastically undermined rural livelihoods, while the loss of jobs in cities means there are no safe havens for displaced people. Unseasonal flooding during the summer and a major earthquake in June have compounded needs and damaged infrastructure further. Finally, the economic crisis has continued, with high levels of unemployment and severe inflation of commodity prices. As a result, the proportion of income that people spend on food increased from 65 per cent to 73 per cent over the year, indicating protracted reduced expenditures on other basic needs.
Despite the major scale up of assistance in 2022, levels of aid have been sufficient to prevent catastrophe but not to move people out of crisis or into stability. The percentage of households that report having received humanitarian assistance has approximately tripled since last year, while 12 per cent of women and female-headed households report that humanitarian assistance is their main source of income.

Lashkar Gah, Afghanistan
Children walk past an area marked for demining
OCHA/Pierre PeronProjected situation in 2023 and beyond
A staggering two thirds of Afghanistan’s population will need humanitarian assistance in 2023. The country will enter its third consecutive year of drought-like conditions and its second year of crippling economic decline, all while people have been unable to recover from the devastating impact of the recent earthquake and floods, and decades of conflict-driven vulnerability. It is estimated that a record 28.3 million people will need humanitarian and protection assistance in 2023, up from 24.4 million in 2022 and 18.4 million at the beginning of 2021.
Overall, 32 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces are in extreme severity levels of need, up from 30 provinces last year. The spread of the crisis to urban areas is particularly notable, with 27 out of 34 major urban areas/provincial capitals in extreme severity of need, including urban Kabul, which has malnutrition rates higher than the World Health Organization’s emergency threshold.
The main drivers of the increase are the continuing climate change-induced drought, with 30 out of 34 provinces in severe or extreme indicators for water quality. As per the latest available forecasts, a third consecutive La Niña has been declared (the first of the 21st Century) as well as the first consecutive years of negative Indian Ocean Dipoles, creating a compound effect that is predicted to create lower than average precipitation over the critical winter period. The other major driver of need has been the worsening of the protection situation, particularly the restrictions on women’s and girls’ participation in society, including the exclusion of most secondary-school girls and women from education. At the same time, the food security and malnutrition situation remains one of the worst in the world, with the forecast for the lean season being 20 million people in IPC 3+ (crisis), with over 6 million people in IPC 4 (emergency).

Pul-i-charkhi-kabul, Afghanistan
Girls attend classes
OCHA/Sayed Habib BedillResponse priorities in 2023
To improve efficiency and effectiveness, the humanitarian response will focus on several areas. First, an increased focus on seasonal packages to reflect changing needs and allow for response efficiency. For example, there will be integrated packages for winter, with increased support for heating, shelter, food pre-positioning etc. Food rations will be adjusted with increased support during the lean season and offset by reductions in the number of people targeted for food during the harvest time. Three regular seasonal plans under the Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) will allow humanitarian partners to respond in real time vis-à-vis emerging trends and events. Second, the response will focus on multisectoral packages and underserved areas to address specific challenges, including an integrated WASH-Health response to cholera, an integrated approach to addressing malnutrition, and other areas.
Afghanistan HRP
Despite the continuing declines in the availability of basic services, the HRP remains focused on core humanitarian programming. However, emergency repairs to core infrastructure and support to core enabling functions, such as primary health care, are still required until basic service delivery is stabilized.
Despite challenges, humanitarian partners stayed and delivered during 2022. The significant decrease in military operations and kinetic activities since September 2021 has enabled partners to reach previously inaccessible areas. However, other forms of access impediments have increased, including meaningful access to women and girls in need due to movement restrictions imposed on female humanitarian staff.
Fundamentally, the only sustainable way to address the intertwined climactic, economic and political crises in Afghanistan causing the humanitarian emergency is through greater investments by the DfA and the wider development system in services addressing basic needs and critical infrastructure.
Analysing needs across Afghanistan

As conflict has reduced in Afghanistan, humanitarian partners are now able to reach previously inaccessible areas. In 2022, the humanitarian community improved and scaled up its assessments and monitoring approaches. This enabled the first truly national analysis of needs in Afghanistan in many years. Two Whole of Afghanistan assessments reached every province and a proportional level of female-headed households. For the first time in seven years, a National SMART nutrition survey was completed and humanitarian assessments were expanded, covering urban and rural areas. All these actions have allowed a comprehensive multisectoral analysis, despite the challenges of working under the de facto authorities and their restrictions on women.
The analysis has led to a more granular understanding of the changing needs in Afghanistan and an increased understanding of the situation in areas not previously reached. It also revealed the severe impacts of climate change-induced drought, including food insecurity and the worsening protection situation, particularly for women and girls.