Analysis of the context, crisis and needs
Honduras faces increasing multidimensional and overlapping risks in a context of extreme fragility, with political and social conflicts, the effects of climate change, forced displacement and migration.
In this context, humanitarian needs are driven by factors including high rates of poverty and extreme poverty, recurrent climate shocks, chronic violence, alarming rates of gender-based violence (GBV), limited access to basic services and the impacts of mixed movements. These sustained needs have formed a complex web of vulnerabilities that humanitarian action has sought to address with cross-sectoral approaches for several years.
At least 59 per cent of the population (4.9 million people), including women, live in poverty. Around 500,000 children (20 per cent of the total) are stunted amid growing food insecurity and high levels of inequality and violence that disproportionately affect women, girls, LGBTIQ+ populations, and people living in suburban or rural areas.
Some 4.6 million people continue to struggle to recover from the combined impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and Hurricanes Eta and Iota in 2020. This is reflected in the country’s decrease in the Human Development Index; Honduras dropped from 132 out of 191 countries in 2020 to 137 in 2022, the second lowest (after Haiti) in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Rising inflation, especially on food prices, has strained the purchasing power of low‑income households, limiting their access to staple foods. In June 2022, the price of white maize jumped by 70 per cent, fertilizer by 88 per cent and energy by 30 per cent due to the global ramifications of the war in Ukraine. The growing cost-of-living crisis threatens to exacerbate an already dire food insecurity situation. Between June and August 2022, 2.6 million people faced Crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) – nearly triple the 962,000 people in IPC Phase 3 or above in February 2020 – including 353,000 people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). A heavier-than-usual rainy season and tropical storms caused floods and landslides in already soiled terrain in Honduras, displacing thousands of people and increasing the vulnerability of tens of thousands more.
As per November 2022, irregular migration flows have skyrocketed compared to previous years. The surge in returnees continues unabated, with an average of around 8,000 migrants returned to Honduras every month in 2022, already surpassing the number of returnees in 2021. The situation at the south-eastern border, where women, girls and LGBTIQ+ people face growing GBV risks, has overwhelmed the country's response capacities.
In 2021, the homicide rate stood at 38.6 per 100,000 inhabitants, more than double the regional average, placing Honduras behind only Jamaica and Venezuela as the most violent country in Latin America and the Caribbean. The femicide rate of 6.79 per 100,000 inhabitants is the highest across the region and nearly triple the global rate of 2.3 per 100,000, with physical, sexual and economic violence disproportionally affecting women and girls.
Projected situation in 2023 and beyond
About 32 per cent of the population is in humanitarian need, and there is a strong possibility of further deterioration. Most of the remaining population requires restoration and sustainability of services to avoid falling into a humanitarian crisis.
Of the 3.2 million people in need, at least 1.6 million were identified with acute needs (severity level 4) and in a critical situation. Their risks are associated with morbidity and mortality, either due to the impacts of violence or lack of access to essential goods to cover their basic needs, and who require urgent attention in the short and medium term to avoid loss of life or deterioration.
More than 3.2 million people are expected to face crisis or worsening levels of acute food insecurity (IPC 3 or higher) from October 2022 to June 2023 – a sharp increase of 0.5 million compared to the same period last year. In contexts of emergencies, such as droughts, storms and the human mobility and displacement crisis, these situations can be exacerbated and impact the nutritional status of children under age 5, and pregnant and breastfeeding women.
Response priorities in 2023
The Humanitarian Country Team (HCT) in Honduras will seek to respond to the needs of 2.1 million people, requiring US$280.4 million. The Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) is based on the collectively identified shocks that lead to humanitarian needs, namely climate change, violence, human mobility and food insecurity. The activities will provide an intersectoral response to these shocks and their humanitarian consequences, focusing on the most vulnerable people. The response activities are designed to ensure complementarity with the development projects in-country and complement the ongoing efforts of the Government.
The increase in requirements for the 2023 HRP is explained by the funding gap for the previous HRP (2021-2022); the conflict in Ukraine and its economic consequences, which impact the cost of aid delivery; and the increase of the population in need – from 2.8 million to 3.2 million.