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Current Requirements (US$)$886.7 million
Analysis of the context, crisis and needs
The people of Myanmar continue to face an unprecedented political, human rights and humanitarian crisis that is posing grave protection risks to civilians, limiting access to vital services including health and education, and driving deep food insecurity. Humanitarian needs have worsened across the country as conflict continues to rage, causing displacement, destruction of property and explosive ordnance contamination, especially in the Northwest and Southeast, creating protection risks for civilians. Forced recruitment – including of children – is increasingly reported. The use of heavy weapons, including air strikes and artillery fire, continues to claim lives and pose risks to the safety and security of civilians. Raids, random searches and arrests are of grave concern.
The spread of conflict has driven unprecedented displacement, with the number of IDPs steeply increasing to 1.4 million as of 24 October 2022. This is nearly 1 million more IDPs than at the same time last year. The destruction of civilian properties, particularly homes, combined with the protracted fighting, is also prolonging the displacement of existing IDPs and further degrading people’s fragile living conditions. The monsoon in the second and third quarter of 2022 has been a miserable time for the hundreds of thousands of displaced people living in informal sites and in the jungle or forest without proper shelter.
Rakhine State, Myanmar
Humanitarian partners provide relief items to displaced families living in temporary shelters.
DRCDespite the dire humanitarian situation facing affected people, including IDPs, the de facto authorities continue to control and limit the transportation of rice, medicine and fuel, as well as humanitarian actors’ access to people in need throughout many parts of the country, but particularly in the Northwest.
A combination of gross underfunding of the response, inflation, access restrictions and interruptions to services has resulted in many needs going unaddressed and worsening over time. Since the military takeover, many children are still not attending school. More than 4 million children — half of Myanmar’s school-aged children — have not accessed formal education for two full academic years. While efforts are under way to support alternative education solutions, this is currently reaching only a fraction of children. This situation places children at much higher risk of negative coping mechanisms, such as child labour, trafficking and early marriage, and the longer it goes on, it increases the likelihood of permanent disengagement from education. The health sector is facing similar strain, with interruptions due to conflict, attacks on health structures and staff, poor funding, lack of availability of medical supplies and social pressure on people not to use public services. This is contributing to the worsening of maternal and child health outcomes, missed routine immunizations and poor emergency care for pregnant women. Ethnic and community health organizations and alternative private services are working to cover gaps, but the response capacity is not commensurate with needs. Private providers are also too expensive for many people amid the current economic distress.
Southern Shan, Myanmar
IDPs receive relief items during an inter-agency distribution mission.
OCHAProjected situation in 2023 and beyond
Conflict dynamics are expected to remain at the same level or worsen in 2023, especially in the Northwest and Southeast. There will be continued protection risks leading to higher vulnerability and needs in the hard-to-reach conflict areas. As a result, the rate of new displacement is expected to continue at similar or higher levels compared to 2022. Due to limited access and support, conditions in protracted IDP sites will likely worsen. While some opportunities for safe return may be seen, these are likely to remain modest, geographically limited, and hampered by landmines, explosive remnants of war and property destruction in places of origin. The possibility of forced premature returns is a serious concern.
The operational space is expected to contract further, amid continued bureaucratic constraints and increased scrutiny of all actors. Looming national elections in 2023 could be a major trigger for increased unrest, violence and additional displacement.
The economic situation remains fragile and has been further undermined by inflation. Livelihoods and coping mechanisms will continue to be severely strained as prices for basic goods continue to outstrip incomes. Continued interruptions to people accessing public health and education services due to the civil disobedience movement, and a lack of funding for public service provision are anticipated. The overall food security outlook is grim, especially given the surge in inflation, the reduction in food production, ongoing access constraints and the high level of unmet needs from 2022. Households are reporting having no food to eat, particularly IDPs in hard-to-reach areas and non-displaced stateless households. The main shocks to food insecurity include higher food and fuel prices, conflict and lower-than-normal rainfall. Mental health care remains a critical need in conflict areas. WASH needs are high among stateless people and IDPs, who are enduring undignified living conditions. Shelter needs will remain high, with more than half of IDPs lacking proper shelter and items. Protection needs are also expected to remain severe: 40 per cent of IDP households have been affected by explosive ordnance in the last year.
Ayeyarwady Region, Myanmar
A mother holds her 8-month-old baby while his middle-upper-arm circumference is measured to assess for malnutrition.
UNICEF/Minzayar OoResponse priorities in 2023
In 2023, humanitarian partners will work towards the following strategic objectives:
- Protection risks and needs are identified, monitored, mitigated and met for 2.1 million people, while the centrality of protection is upheld across the humanitarian response including through promotion of respect for human rights, international humanitarian law and humanitarian principles.
- Suffering, morbidity and mortality is reduced and prevented among 3.1 million displaced, returned, stateless and other crisis-affected people experiencing or at risk of food insecurity, malnutrition and health threats.
- At least 2 million displaced, returned, stateless and other crisis-affected people have safe, tailored, timely and dignified access to essential services and support to ensure their survival and prevent deterioration of their humanitarian needs.
Myanmar HRP
The HRP target has been tightened from 6.2 million people in 2022 to 4.5 million in 2023, based on a realistic analysis of possible responses within a challenging access and funding environment, as well as the restarting of some development activities. The 2023 response will focus more strictly on life-saving activities in conflict-affected areas. Most resilience needs have been moved outside the plan and will now be addressed via nexus and development activities. This recalibration includes moving the bulk of the peri-urban response under the UN Socio-Economic Resilience Response Plan as part of a strengthened nexus response. At the end of 2022, many development partners are restarting paused programmes, which allows humanitarian partners to shift their focus back to core life-saving responses, especially in rural areas. While nearly all clusters have reduced their target number to a small degree, the Health Cluster has expanded its target significantly from 1.4 million people to 2.3 million. The health response is more ambitious in 2023 given the disintegration of the public health system and the reality that alternate modalities of delivery are scaling up.
While there have been modest access openings in 2022, these were very localized. The overall access environment is expected to remain heavily constrained, requiring a strong reliance on and risk sharing with low-profile local responders. The humanitarian operating space is under increasing threat from bureaucratic blockages imposed by the de facto authorities around registration, travel, banking and visas. Continued advocacy will be required around the impacts of these constraints on the humanitarian operation. Humanitarians will continue to engage with all parties in a bid to secure access, promote principled responses that are based on needs and raise civilian protection issues.