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Current People in Need1.4 million
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Current People Targeted1.1 million
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Current Requirements ($)84.2 million
Analysis of the context, crisis and needs
The Eastern Migration Route accounts for 40 per cent of all migratory movements worldwide. It encompasses the movements of people travelling across the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States via Yemen. Migrants typically transit through coastal countries, either Djibouti or Somalia, to reach Yemen via boats through the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden. In the first half of 2022, over 140,000 movements along the Eastern Route were recorded, with Ethiopian and Somali nationals comprising 89 per cent and 11 per cent of arrivals in Yemen, respectively. In terms of the reasons for leaving their country of origin, 78 per cent of surveyed migrants indicated economic reasons, while 8 per cent mentioned climatic and environmental reasons.

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Migrant returnees register at the Government reception centre.
IOM/Safa MsehliIn 2022, arrivals to Yemen have nearly tripled compared to the same period in 2021, with over 47,000 people arriving by boat. As of August 2022, an estimated 43,000 migrants were stranded in Yemen, 950 in Djibouti and 172 in Somalia. Furthermore, from March to the end of August 2022, 71,500 migrants had been forcibly returned to Ethiopia (an average of almost 3,000 migrants per week) from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Roughly 17 per cent of forcibly returned migrants in 2022 intended to return to Tigray, and nearly 3,000 forcibly returned migrants are stranded in Addis Ababa, unable to return to their place of origin. Continued forced returns from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to Ethiopia are anticipated by the Migrant Response Plan (MRP), but it is unclear when operations will resume. In addition, the announcement by Ethiopia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs to repatriate 12,000 Ethiopians from 12 countries, including Yemen and Djibouti, will worsen the overstretched services receiving returning migrants in Addis Ababa. MRP partners recorded 5,400 forced returns from Djibouti at the Dewele point of entry in northern Ethiopia from the beginning of the year to the end of September 2022.
Throughout their journey along the Eastern Route, migrants face several life-threatening situations, and they are at grave risk of exploitation and abuse. Most migrants travel long distances on the Eastern Route by foot through extreme heat, resulting in dehydration and exhaustion. Additionally, migrants are often apprehended by smugglers, border guards or militias, who often utilize violent practices. They also fall prey to migrant smugglers, who expose them to risky journeys, including kidnapping. This endangers their lives, with women and children – 32 per cent of the migrant population along the Eastern Route – being the most vulnerable to these risks and abuses. In 2022, MRP partners recorded 79 missing or dead migrants along the Eastern Route.

Obock, Djibouti
Migrants walk in the desert towards Obock. With worn out sandals and only a few belongings, they walk for days without food and water. Many migrants die along the journey due to dehydration and starvation
IOM/Alexander BeeProjected situation in 2023 and beyond
In 2023, considering 2022 migration trends, migration flows along the Eastern Route are anticipated to return to or even exceed pre-COVID-19 levels. In 2023, the number of people who need humanitarian assistance is projected to reach 1,428,234. This figure includes 458,605 migrants and 969,629 host-community members across the four countries that conform to the MRP: Djibouti, Ethiopia, Somalia and Yemen. In addition, the ongoing drought in the Horn of Africa, the most severe in the last four decades, has already affected over 35 million people in the region, and future rainy seasons are anticipated to bring far lower than usual rainfall. While further research is required, the MRP foresees the drought impacting migration, particularly on host communities, who frequently interact with and support migrants along the Eastern Route. The drought is anticipated to continually deplete host communities’ resources, limiting their ability to support migrants along the Eastern Route. Moreover, the drought’s impacts on livelihoods and food security potentially drive migration in countries of origin and transit. According to OCHA, the drought is affecting 24.1 million people in Ethiopia and 7.8 million in Somalia, with 3.5 million livestock dying in Ethiopia and over 3 million dying in Somalia, severely reducing the main source of sustenance and livelihoods for people in the region.

Hargeisa, Somalia
A young Ethiopian migrant near her home in an informal settlement.
IOM/Tobin JonesWhile displacement due to drought is mostly internal, the MRP has recorded cross border movements originating from drought-affected areas across the region, which could be explained by the exacerbated challenges in the economic environment. Furthermore, between January 2021 and September 2022, 46 per cent of returnees from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia were reported to originate from drought-affected areas of Ethiopia. Although the conflict in Ethiopia is expected to end following the peace agreement reached between the warring parties, the life-saving and protection needs for returnees originating from the conflict-affected areas, who have been stranded in Addis Ababa and unable to go home, will remain high as the communities move towards transition and recovery. Lastly, the continued flow of forced returns from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and from Djibouti to Ethiopia is anticipated for 2023, further worsening the humanitarian situation in the overcrowded shelters. Returns in 2022 were facilitated through a formal agreement signed between the two countries and scheduled to conclude at the end of the year. A subsequent extension is anticipated.
Response priorities in 2023
The 2023 MRP targets 1,045,832 people, including 403,295 migrants and 642,537 host-community members. In 2023, 19 MRP partners will prioritize life-saving assistance, protection, community-based reintegration and social-cohesion programming. MRP partners will also continue to build evidence, partnerships and coordination to enhance the response to humanitarian needs along the Eastern Route. In addition to responding to migrants’ immediate needs, addressing the root causes of migration in hotspots of migration and areas of return is also key to the response. This will include the engagement of host communities through community-based reintegration projects, social-inclusion initiatives, programmes focused on supporting mothers (community-based protection mechanisms and capacity-building), access to livelihood opportunities, hotlines for national referral mechanisms, alternatives for migration and safety nets. To ensure that informed, coordinated and comprehensive assistance and protection services are provided to migrants and host communities along the Eastern Route, the MRP will prioritize the collection, analysis and sharing of migration data on mobility patterns, root causes and routes, as well as migrants’ protection needs, risks and vulnerabilities. In 2023, MRP partners will also focus on capacity-building and advocacy with key Government and non-Government institutions to respond comprehensively to migrants’ needs and support long-term reintegration and community stabilization.