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Current Requirements (US$)$344 million
Analysis of the context, crisis and needs
Heavy rains and a combination of riverine, urban and flash flooding led to an unprecedented climate-induced disaster in Pakistan that started in June 2022, causing widespread fatalities, killing livestock, and damaging and destroying public and private infrastructure across the country. Rain-induced landslides and floods also damaged agricultural land and forests, impacting local ecosystems. The heavy rains and floods affected around 33 million people, including at least 7.9 million people who have been displaced.
More than 2 million houses have been affected, comprising over 767,000 houses destroyed and nearly 1.3 million houses damaged. Eighty-nine per cent of this is in Sindh Province, where more than 683,000 houses were destroyed, and more than 1.1 million houses were damaged. As of early October, some 598,000 people were living in informal sites, relief camps or tent cities, often with limited access to services. Since then, people have been gradually returning to their places of origin, but often finding their homes, farmland and assets destroyed. The impact on farmland and agriculture has been immense, with more than 1.1 million livestock reportedly killed. The Food and Agriculture Organization assesses that some 9.4 million acres of crop area in Pakistan were potentially flooded in August 2022.
Sindh Province, Pakistan
A community devastated by heavy rains and floods in Khairpur District.
OCHA/Pierre PeronVulnerability is likely to heighten as a direct result of the floods. The Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) report released in late October 2022 indicates that the national poverty rates will increase from 3.7 to 4.0 percentage points, potentially pushing between 8.4 million and 9.1 million more people below the poverty line. Even before the floods, Pakistan was already facing macroeconomic pressures and low economic growth due to challenging global economic conditions. According to the PDNA, the immediate impact on people’s lives and livelihoods will come through the loss of household income and assets, shortages of food and loss of human capital due to the ongoing public health situation. Women are especially vulnerable to poverty, with only 22.6 per cent of women in Pakistan active in the labour market, and the income of an average woman in Pakistan around 16 per cent of that of an average man.
Despite its very low carbon footprint, Pakistan is globally one of the 10 countries most affected by extreme weather events, according to the Global Climate Risk Index 2021 and Climate Watch. As highlighted in Pakistan’s National Climate Change Policy issued in 2021, the effects of global climate change in Pakistan are already evident through the melting and receding glaciers; increased frequency of droughts, flooding and erratic weather behaviour; changes in agricultural patterns; reduction in fresh water supply; loss of biodiversity; and increase in the formation and outbursts of glacial lakes. August 2022 was the wettest August in Pakistan since records began, with the national rainfall more than 243 per cent above average.
Out of the US$816 million requirement for the flood response plan, only $130 million (about 16 per cent) is funded as of the end of October 2022. This leaves significant response gaps across all sectors.
Projected situation in 2023 and beyond
An estimated 20.6 million people will continue to need humanitarian assistance in 2023, largely driven by a lack of access to clean water and health services, and increased food insecurity and malnutrition rates.
Widespread standing floodwaters and damaged water, sanitation and hygiene facilities will continue to pose heightened public health risks to communities in flood-affected areas. Cases of malaria, dengue, acute watery diarrhoea and cholera will continue to be common among flood-affected communities, posing a particular threat in areas where floodwaters will remain the longest. Damage to drinking water supply systems and to more than 1,460 public health facilities and their contents have already reduced access to safe and clean water. This will continue to inhibit the provision of health services at a time of increased need.
Sindh Province, Pakistan
A man and his grandson at a site for people displaced by floods in Larkana District.
OCHA/Pierre PeronThe widespread loss of livestock, crops, livelihoods and income, as well as the damage to critical transport infrastructure for supplying agricultural outputs to markets that has occurred, is expected to exacerbate the already frail food security situation and drive even more people into crisis and emergency levels of food insecurity. This is compounded by ongoing price increases in Pakistan coinciding with a surge in global inflation, which is further contributing to increasing the unaffordability of food and other commodities in the market. Preliminary results from updated IPC analysis after the flooding indicate that around 8.62 million people were food insecure (in IPC Phases 3 and 4) from September to December 2022, of whom 6.02 million are estimated to be in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and 2.59 million in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency).
The onset of winter, typically lasting from November to March in Pakistan, brings new challenges for flood-affected people, particularly those who have been displaced and who are living in camps and informal settlements, and people who may have moved back into damaged houses that are exposed to the cold. The impact of floods has also eroded the coping capacity of communities in flood-affected areas, further increasing their vulnerability.
Pakistan will continue to be vulnerable to climate-related emergencies, including floods and drought, beyond 2023. Humanitarian response and recovery efforts need to build in preparedness and risk reduction measures to increase communities’ resilience to these emergencies.
Sindh Province, Pakistan
Children at a school destroyed by heavy rains and flooding near Mohenjo Daro, Larkana District.
OCHA/Pierre PeronResponse priorities in 2023
Until May 2023, humanitarian partners plan to reach 9.5 million people, with a total requirement of $816 million. The focus of the response is on the 34 most affected districts in Balochistan, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab. The prioritization of the districts was based on the number of houses damaged and destroyed, available projections of water-level changes, and the number of displaced people in the districts. The focus of the response is on the provision of urgent and life-saving humanitarian assistance and protection. Limited Early Recovery components are integrated, especially livelihoods and agriculture support, as those are considered being critical to prevent the further erosion of positive coping strategies, and to enable the affected population to regain self-sufficiency more swiftly. Urgent life-saving efforts were particularly prioritized for the first six months of the plan, while limited Early Recovery activities are foreseen for the entire nine-month period of the plan.
The PDNA that was completed in October 2022 provides a basis for a national recovery strategy/plan. The PDNA estimates total flood damage at $14.9 billion, total loss at $15.2 billion and total recovery needs at $16.3 billion. Implementation and financing of this plan will likely only come later in 2023. Therefore, humanitarian support will still be critical in the larger part of 2023.