-
Current Requirements (US$)$2.57 billion
Analysis of the context, crisis, and needs
The military coup on 25 October 2021 has reversed the achievements on a path to democratic transition and put Sudan on a precarious track. Efforts to resolve the political crisis are yet to yield tangible results. International development support has been significantly reduced, limiting the capacity of Government institutions and development partners to provide basic social services. Consequently, communities’ resilience has been undermined, pushing more people into a state of humanitarian vulnerability. In the past few years, the economy has fluctuated between deep contraction and stagnation, with economic growth rates too modest to have a real impact.
The protracted crises continue to aggravate the hardship experienced by resident communities, and people affected by conflict and displacement. 2022 has witnessed an increase in the number and intensity of violent incidents throughout the country, with Darfur and the Two Areas becoming increasingly prone to conflict. As of the end of October this year, 265,000 people were displaced due to conflict. A total of 3.7 million people are internally displaced (according to the latest tracking from December 2021 – January 2022). With 926,000 refugees, most of whom are from South Sudan, Sudan is one of the top 10 refugee-hosting countries. Meanwhile, humanitarian access is becoming progressively more challenging due to a combination of lack of physical access due to floods and poor infrastructure, and bureaucratic- and security-related impediments.
North Darfur, Sudan
Health workers conduct door-to-door nutrition screenings for children in Abushock IDP camp.
UNICEF/Mustafa AbdalrasolSudan continues to witness outbreaks of endemic waterborne and vector borne diseases. In 2022, floods and heavy rain affected more than 348,000 people across the country. The number of acutely food insecure people continued to increase for the third consecutive year, reaching a record 11.7 million people. This was further exacerbated by the conflict in Ukraine, as Sudan relies on wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine. The reported malaria cases in September 2022 crossed the epidemic threshold in 14 states, with a more-than twofold increase compared to last year. A total of 185 suspected cases of monkeypox were reported by 15 October in 12 states, and 18 cases were confirmed, including the death of a 27-day-old baby in West Darfur.
Projected situation in 2023 and beyond
About 15.8 million people — a third of the population — will require humanitarian assistance across Sudan in 2023. The estimated need was informed by a nationwide multisectoral needs assessment of more than 21,000 households – 6,850 more than in 2021 – from the refugee, displaced, returnee and non-displaced communities across Sudan. This is an increase of 1.5 million households compared to 2022 and the highest since 2011. Vulnerable residents are the largest population group — some 11.4 million people — accounting for 72 per cent of the overall number. There are also 2.5 million IDPs, 0.9 million refugees and 0.9 million returnees.
For 2023, the four most significant risks identified were conflict, disasters associated with natural hazards, disease outbreaks and economic deterioration. The crises’ drivers and underlying root causes will continue to generate new and more severe humanitarian needs, while rendering vulnerable communities less resilient. Forced displacements and violence are likely to increase in 2023. Over the next few years, extreme climate events, such as floods and droughts, are expected to increase in frequency and severity and reoccur in areas that already faced similar shocks over the past years. The most vulnerable people will be unable to meet their basic needs, as commodity prices and costs for essential services continue to rise. Disease outbreaks, such as malaria, are expected to be an acute and widespread risk for pregnant women. Those outbreaks will continue to create additional health needs, stretching the capacity of the available health-care system.
A new approach is needed in Sudan to address these recurrent, protracted and growing multidimensional needs, and to ensure greater aid effectiveness. This will be done by enabling efficiency in the response through synergies across the different aid streams and a greater emphasis on resilience-based activities to address humanitarian needs.
South Darfur, Sudan
Collapsed houses and destroyed crops following heavy rains and floods in Kalma IDP camp.
UNICEF/Ahmed Amin Ahmed Mohamed OsmanResponse priorities in 2023
Considering the needs are multisectoral across Sudan, localities (second administrative level and affected population categories therein) with the highest intersectoral levels of severity are estimated as people in need. Within these categories, clusters target the most vulnerable people in need, with gender sensitivity, to the maximum of a cluster’s collective capacity to deliver, and considering the humanitarian access constraints. The prioritization of the most critical interventions further refines the planned response, taking full advantage of the cluster’s detailed activity-level planning.
To focus interventions on more intersectoral planning, the 2023 Humanitarian Response Plan will aim to respond to the most immediate needs of 12.5 million people. It will primarily focus on multisectoral life-saving assistance with an emphasis on the most acute humanitarian needs and people in the most life-threatening situations. It will also describe and cost the essential interventions that build the resilience of people in need to reduce their vulnerability and to ultimately reduce the number of people in need year on year.
Sudan HRP
The response aims to operationalize the centrality of protection across the humanitarian response through protection mainstreaming and accountability to affected populations.
In 2023, US$1.7 billion is required to support the core humanitarian response as part of a package of interventions that aim to support an effective combination of immediate humanitarian response and resilience-enabling activities towards reducing humanitarian needs over time, building synergies with complementary sustainable development activities in Sudan.
References
- This is a provisional financial estimate