Conflicts across the world have resurged and intensified, causing massive protection issues, and driving unprecedented levels of vulnerability and human suffering. The long-term trends on the intensity of conflict, the impact on civilians, the safety and security of aid workers and the effect on children all point to a grim picture – and although 2023 year-end figures were not available at the time of writing, the current situation in contexts such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Occupied Palestinian Territory (OPT), the Sahel and Sudan, indicates that conflict, violations of international humanitarian law and international human rights law, will continue to be the most significant driver of humanitarian need in the near future, causing major suffering, bringing about waves of displacement and impacting livelihoods.
Highly violent conflicts with severe humanitarian implications persist. About 60 per cent of conflicts worldwide were fought violently in 2022 (216 out of 363 – compared to 204 out of 355 in the year prior). Sub-Saharan Africa remained the region with the highest number of conflicts classed as full-scale wars.The intensity of conflicts has increased over time, with more were more battle-related deaths in 2022 than in any year since 1984, an increase in conflict between States and civil conflict becoming more internationalized.
Aid worker security incidents (2010–2022)
The number of recorded civilian deaths due to armed conflicts has risen dramatically. In 2022, the United Nations recorded at least 16,988 civilian deaths across 12 armed conflicts, a 53 per cent increase compared with 2021. And those with specific needs – older persons, persons with disabilities, minority groups, children, among others – suffered the most. In Ukraine, in 2022, the United Nations recorded 7,957 civilians killed and 12,560 injured, although actual figures are likely higher. This was nearly half of the total number of civilians killed in conflict worldwide in that year! And the current situation in OPT points to an even deadlier 2023: in seven weeks of fighting, between 7 October 2023 and 27 November 2023, more than 14,800 Palestinians were reported killed and over 36,000 injured . This figure is equivalent to nearly 90 per cent of the total global figure of civilians reported killed for the whole of 2022, which was itself already the deadliest year since the Rwandan genocide in 1994.
In contrast, in contexts where political truces were reached, casualties declined: in Yemen, a six-month truce in 2022 resulted in a 60 per cent reduction in civilian casualties.
Coming together to protect civilians
The Political Declaration on Strengthening the Protection of Civilians from the Humanitarian Consequences Arising from the Use of Explosive Weapons in Populated Areas was adopted and endorsed by 83 States in November 2022, a milestone achievement to help lessen harm to civilians. In the document, States declared that they would ensure their armed forces adopt and implement policies and practices to avoid civilian harm, such as restricting or refraining from the use of explosive weapons in populated areas, noting that the risks to civilians increase depending on a weapon’s explosive power, its accuracy, and the use of multiple munitions. The States concerned also declared that they would ensure their armed forces take into account the direct and indirect effects of their operations on civilians and civilian infrastructure, and they would ensure assistance to victims. Implementing the Declaration must mark a departure from the ‘business-as-usual’ approach and contribute towards further reducing harm to civilians – but the success of such an initiative will only be as strong as the active implementation of the provisions within the declaration.
The use of explosive weapons in populated areas is having devastating effects well beyond their intended targets. Incidents involving the use of explosive weapons were recorded 2,399 times across 17 countries and territories affected by conflict in 2022. These incidents killed 18,163 people, and nearly 94 per cent were civilians. And the situation in OPT shows that the trend is unfortunately continuing: as of 8 November 2023, the UN estimates that more than 41,000 housing units have been destroyed in Gaza.
Ukraine – those who are already the most vulnerable are also the most affected by hostilities
In Ukraine, explosive weapons, designed to affect wide areas, were responsible for 92.5 per cent of all civilian casualties recorded by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights. The majority of these were used in populated areas. The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) recorded 592 civilian casualties (221 killed and 371 injured) from mines and explosive remnants of war (ERW) in 2022. By October 2023, these figures stood at 460 civilian casualties (108 killed and 352 injured). The high number of civilian casualties has created a new dimension of need by increasing the number of persons with disabilities.
Older persons have also been particularly affected by the conflict and often constitute the majority of those remaining in conflict affected areas. Mines and ERW pose a significant threat to the lives of older persons, especially in areas where hostilities have been intense. Despite representing only 25 per cent of the population, people over 60 years of age made up a third of civilians killed between February 2022 and February 2023.
Conflict is displacing people around the globe at an unprecedented level. By the end of 2022, 108.5 million people had been forcibly displaced due to conflict and by September 2023, this figure was estimated to have risen to over 114 million people. Most people displaced by conflict and violence remained in their own country: conflict and violence caused 28.3 million internal displacements in 2022 – this is the highest figure ever recorded, nearly doubling from the previous year and three times higher than the annual average of the last ten years causing major protection concerns and impacting particularly vulnerable groups. In Ukraine, the war triggered 16.9 million displacements – equivalent to nearly 60 per cent of the global total in 2022. As of December 2022, 74 per cent of IDPs in Ukraine thought that returning to their places of origin would offer the best prospect of a long-term solution. Such intentions were unfeasible for many due to ongoing conflict, insecurity, the presence of explosive remnants of war, absence of services and livelihood opportunities – all common elements that hinder durable solutions in conflict settings. The current estimates for Sudan – 6.3 million people displaced in 2023 since the conflict that began in April 2023 – have resulted in the largest displacement crisis globally.
Sexual violence increases as conflict increases
Sexual violence – in all its forms – continues to be used as a tactic of war, with women and girls constituting the majority of victims and survivors. In 2022, in several countries including the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Haiti, Mali, Myanmar and Sudan, conflict-related sexual violence was perpetrated as a form of retaliation against individuals and communities for their perceived or actual affiliation with rival armed groups or as an instrument of intimidation and oppression, amongst other reasons.
In July 2023, within three months of the heavy fighting that broke out in Sudan, the number of women and girls at risk of gender-based violence (GBV), including sexual exploitation and abuse, and intimate partner violence, increased by a staggering 40 per cent, from 3 million prior to the conflict to 4.2 million women and girls. Reports of sexual violence increased in the aftermath of the conflict, with some attacks taking place along transit routes of people fleeing the heavy fighting. The survivors included girls and, in some cases, multiple rape victims in the same attack.
Levels of GBV, including sexual violence, are alarming. Yet, GBV prevention, mitigation and response programming is chronically underfunded, and conflict makes the need for such programming even more critical.
Conflict severely impacts humanitarian operations. Both humanitarian workers and their assets (i.e., supplies, vehicles and buildings) face the consequences of violence and insecurity. Humanitarian access constraints persist while bureaucratic impediments, counterterrorism and sanctions measures hamper operations and drive up operational costs. Violence against medical personnel and facilities persists, leaving thousands without care. According to data in 17 countries and territories in 2022, 174 health care workers were killed, 301 injured, 220 kidnapped, and 55 assaulted. The largest numbers of injured health care workers were in Afghanistan, OPT and Ukraine. The kidnapping of medical personnel was most prevalent in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Nigeria. Preliminary figures for 2023 indicate that the trend will continue, with the situation in OPT likely driving an overall increase in figures. As of 12 November 2023, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported 137 attacks on health-care facilities in Gaza alone, resulting in 16 health workers killed on duty, 38 health-care workers injured, and 39 health facilities damaged.
A more dangerous world for aid workers
Twenty years have passed since the attack on the UN headquarters at the Canal Hotel in Baghdad, Iraq. On 19 August 2003, a bomb killed 22 people, including the UN Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Iraq, Sergio Vieira de Mello. Five years later, the 19 August was designated as World Humanitarian Day. The deadly attack led to a marked increase in security measures and standard procedures around UN humanitarian operations in conflict and insecure environments. Despite these measures, casualties have risen over the past two decades due to the persistence of conflict-driven humanitarian crises, lessening respect for international humanitarian law and the growing number of aid workers responding to crises.
Data from 2000 – 2022 confirms that the numbers of attacks on humanitarian workers increased over time, with the number of victims increasing nearly fivefold in that time period (from 91 victims to 444 victims). The rise has been driven by deteriorating security in specific country contexts at particular points in time and, desolately, the majority of victims have been national staff of both international and national organizations who, on average, constituted 86 per cent of attack victims. In 2022, a total of 444 aid workers were victims of violence in 235 separate attacks, 116 individuals were killed, 143 injured, and 185 kidnapped. Partial figures for 2023 (as of October 2023) indicate a continuing trend of deteriorating safety and security for aid workers: overall, attacks against aid workers were marginally lower in 2022 compared to the previous year, but there was a significant surge in kidnappings – increasing by 58 per cent in a single year (from 117 kidnappings in 2021 to 185 in 2022). Preliminary global data for 2023 (as of October 2023) indicated that South Sudan would remain the most dangerous operational context for humanitarian workers, followed by Sudan and Ukraine in terms of the countries with the highest number of incidents against humanitarian aid workers. The situation in Palestine, however, is bringing about an unprecedented threat to humanitarian workers with the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) alone reporting that 103 staff have been killed in five weeks (7 October – 15 November 2023): “More United Nations aid workers have been killed [in Gaza] than in any comparable period in the history of our organization” (Guterres, 2023).
Children remain particularly vulnerable to conflict. About 1 child in every 5 around the world is now living in or fleeing from conflict zones. In 2022, the United Nations verified 27,180 grave violations against children – nearly 3,000 more than compared to 2021 – affecting nearly 19,000 children. Almost 3,000 children were killed and 5,655 maimed as a result of conflict and violence in 2022. Violations include killing and maiming, recruitment and use of children by parties to a conflict, sexual violence and abductions, as well as attacks on schools and hospitals. Recruitment and use of children by parties to a conflict continued with 7,622 reported as recruited and almost 4,000 children were abducted. Gender norms shaped the distribution of grave violations: while boys continued to be more affected by recruitment and use, killing and maiming, and abduction, girls were disproportionately affected by conflict-related sexual violence. Attacks on schools more than doubled in 2022 with well over a thousand schools targeted, particularly in Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, OPT, Myanmar, Mali and Ukraine.
Number of countries with humanitarian access constraints (2018 - July 2023)
Conflict and violence continue to have a significant and debilitating effect on the world economy. The global economic impact of violence was $17.5 trillion in 2022, the equivalent to 12.9 per cent of global GDP, and a 6.6 per cent increase from the previous year. Countries experiencing violence bear a far greater financial burden to those that do not. For the ten countries most affected by violence, the economic cost of violence averaged 34 per cent of the 2022 GDP, compared to just 2.9 per cent for the ten least affected countries. Afghanistan, Sudan and Ukraine incurred the largest proportional economic cost of violence in 2022, equivalent to approximately 63, 40 and 47 per cent of GDP, respectively.
References
- Political conflict is classified according to its intensity into low, medium or high. Low intensity political conflict is non-violent; it includes political disputes and non-violent crises. Medium and high intensity political conflict includes the use of violence. For full definitions on methodology, please see Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research, Conflict Barometer 2022, p. 17
- Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research, Conflict Barometer 2022, p. 17
- Obermeier and Rustad (2023); Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 1946–2022, Peace Research Institute Oslo
- Report of the UN Secretary-General on the Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict,
- OCHA OPT, Data retrieved 16 November 2023. Numbers reflect figures reported by the Ministry of Health, Gaza.
- Based on numbers of deaths from 1994, estimated by the Uppsala Conflict Data Programme, https://ucdp.uu.se/exploratory
- Report of the UN Secretary-General on the Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict,
- Report of the UN Secretary-General on the Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict, , p.2 The highest numbers of civilian victims of explosive weapons in populated areas were reported in Ukraine, followed by Afghanistan, Somalia and the Syrian Arab Republic.
- OCHA OPT, Data retrieved 16 November 2023.
- Report of the UN Secretary-General on the Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict, S/2023/345, p.2
- Data provided by OHCHR and HRMMU
- UNHCR, Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2022; UNHCR, 2023 Mid-year trends report, published October 2023. Figure includes refugees under UNRWA and UNHCR mandate; internally displaced persons, million asylum seekers and other people in need of international protection. For more details see article on Forced Displacement within the GHO 2024.
- IDMC, Global Report on Internal Displacement (GRID) 2023, p. 14
- IDMC, Global Report on Internal Displacement (GRID) 2023
- IDMC, Global Report on Internal Displacement (GRID) 2023
- UN OCHA, Sudan Situation Report – 12 November 2023; IOM, DTM Sudan Weekly Displacement Snapshot 10, 14 November 2023
- Report of the Secretary-General on Conflict-related sexual violence, S/2023/413, p.4
- UN – Africa Renewal, Sudan: UN condemns spike in violence against women and girls, 6 July 2023
- UNFPA, Sudan: Top UN Officials sound alarm at spike in violence against women and girls, 5 July 2023; OHCHR, UN experts alarmed by reported widespread use of rape and sexual violence against women and girls by RSF in Sudan, 17 August 2023
- Report of the UN Secretary-General on the Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict, S/2023/345, p.4
- UNFPA, UNICEF and WHO, Regional director call for immediate action to halt attacks on health care in Gaza, 12 November 2023; WHO, Impact of the health attacks in the Gaza Strip: 4 November 2023
- Humanitarian Outcomes, Aid Worker Security Database (AWSD), Aid Worker Security Report 2023
- Aid Worker Security Database (AWSD), data accessed 25 October 2023; Humanitarian Outcomes Aid Worker Security Database: Statistical Analysis of Data Trends, 2000-2019. The likelihood of a national aid worker to be a victim of an attack was calculated by looking at the distribution of attacks of international vs national staff between 2000-2022 and calculating the average over that timeframe.
- Aid Worker Security Database (AWSD), Aid Worker Security Report 2023 – Figures At A Glance
- UNRWA, UNRWA situation report #31 on the situation in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank including East Jerusalem, 15 November 2023; UN Secretary-General, Statement at press conference on the Middle East, 6 November 2023
- UNICEF, Statement by UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell: “Children live in a world that is increasingly hostile to their rights”, 20 November 2023
- Report of the UN Secretary-General on Children and Armed Conflict, A/77/895 S/2023/363, 5 June 2023. Violations affected 18,890 children (13,469 boys, 4,638 girls, 783 sex unknown) in 24 situations and one regional monitoring arrangement.
- Report of the UN Secretary-General on Children and Armed Conflict, A/77/895 S/2023/363, 5 June 2023, p. 2
- Report of the UN Secretary-General on Children and Armed Conflict, A/77/895 S/2023/363, 5 June 2023, p. 2
- Report of the UN Secretary-General on Children and Armed Conflict, A/77/895 S/2023/363, 5 June 2023, p. 3
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), Global Peace Index 2023, p. 34