Analysis of context, crisis and needs
The Horn of Africa and Yemen is a region of origin, transit and destination for thousands of men, women, boys and girls pushed to migrate by socio-economic challenges, climate change, conflict and instability. Most of the tracked movements originate in Ethiopia (71%) and Somalia (13%), with 153,000 migrants who had exited Ethiopia by mid-2023. In parallel, the number of arrivals to Yemen from the Horn of Africa between January and September 2023 has reached 92,357, surpassing the 2022 numbers by 26 per cent. The Eastern Route to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and other gulf states via Djibouti, Somalia and Yemen is the busiest and riskiest route in the region. Migration along this route is bi-directional, including both outward migration and return movements. A growing number of Ethiopian and Somali migrants are also moving along the Southern Route toward South Africa via Kenya and Tanzania. Although such movements remain largely unmonitored, an estimated 64,525 migrants have travelled along this route in 2023.
While socio-economic drivers are the top reason for migrating, a complex interrelation of factors, including the adverse effect of climate change, environmental pressure, overpopulation, protracted conflicts and political instability are shaping mobility in the region. In particular, the Horn of Africa has grappled with the most severe drought in the past four decades, exacerbating already dire economic conditions. This environmental catastrophe, which affected over 32.1 million people, has decimated agricultural output, leading to food scarcity and soaring prices for essential commodities. The resultant food insecurity has further deepened the vulnerability of communities, prompting many to embark on perilous journeys towards the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in search of more stable livelihoods and improved living conditions.
Migrants’ irregular status and the harsh condition of the journey exacerbate their vulnerabilities, exposing them to life-threatening circumstances. Along both routes, migrants face harsh physical conditions and considerable protection risks, including human trafficking, arbitrary detention, discrimination, xenophobic attacks, and involuntary returns. Extreme weather conditions and limited access to food, water, and medical care expose migrants to life-threatening situations, further exacerbated by ongoing conflict and insecurity in certain areas.
Migration flows along the Eastern and the Southern Route are predicted to increase in 2024. The impacts of droughts and instability in the Horn of Africa are expected to exacerbate living conditions in communities of origin and host communities, resulting in additional outward movements and heightened migrant vulnerabilities.
Response priorities in 2024
According to preliminary data from January to September 2023, MRP partners have reached 191,673 beneficiaries across Ethiopia (127,829), Yemen (18,188), Somalia (22,320) and Djibouti (23,336). Migrant men, women, boys, and girls accounted for approximately 84 per cent of beneficiaries, along with host community members (15.6%) and government officials (0.4%). Interventions aligned with the MRP 2023 Strategic Objectives and included the provision of life-saving assistance (Objective 1); quality, timely, and inclusive protection assistance, and services (Objective 2); the strengthening of access to safe and voluntary return, sustainable reintegration, and community stabilization (Objective 3); and the building of evidence, partnerships, and coordination to enhance the humanitarian response and migration management throughout the migration route (Objective 4).
While 2024 areas of intervention remain the same, the heightened needs of migrants and host community along the Southern route warrants an expansion of the response. As a reflection of the sizeable number of migrants stranded along this route, Kenya and the United Republic of Tanzania have been included in the MRP.
Humanitarian needs include lifesaving assistance for departing and transiting migrants, as well as migrants at destination and returnees and individual and community reintegration support, including economic empowerment, training and education initiatives. Assistance to host communities is also essential to streamline reintegration efforts and to prevent further irregular migration, combined with effective awareness raising initiatives. Activities contributing to Humanitarian Development Peace Collaboration, border management, health system enhancement, policy development, and labor migration pathways will also be emphasized in 2024.