Regional overview
The Pacific region is one of the most disaster-prone regions in the world. Small, vulnerable island states are isolated by vast expanses of ocean. They experience frequent and intense disasters with disproportionately high economic, social, and environmental consequences. The region faces rapid-onset events, such as cyclones, floods, earthquakes and volcanic activity, and slow-onset events (e.g., droughts). Earthquakes, along the intersection of the Australian and Pacific tectonic plates increase the risk of tsunamis to low-lying island communities and coastal areas.
In the past ten years, the region has suffered several significant disaster events, including Tropical Cyclones (TCs). The latest were TC Lola in October 2023, hitting Vanuatu and Solomon Islands; TCs Judy and Kevin in March 2023, making landfall in Vanuatu; TC Harold in April 2020, hitting Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji and Tonga; TC Yasa in December 2020, and TC Ana in January 2021, both making landfall in Fiji). Flash floods (Fiji and Samoa in 2023, and Tuvalu, Kiribati, Solomon Islands, all in 2020); and volcanic eruptions took place in Vanuatu in 2017 and 2018, and in Tonga in 2022, with consequential tsunami.
Droughts have posed a major challenge for Kiribati and Tuvalu in 2022-2023, however a higher-than-normal rainfall is expected, due to El Niño phenomenon, forecast through December 2023 to February 2024 within the Pacific Ocean.

Kuvamiti village, East Guadalcanal, Solomon Islands
Nurse Rosemary Raikekeni brings COVID-19 vaccines and other essential health services to residents of this remote village.
WHO/Neil NuiaThe economic impacts of disasters are affecting the countries’ growth; for reference, TC Judy and Kevin in Vanuatu led Vanuatu’s GDP growth forecast for 2023 to be revised down from 3.6 per cent to 3.0 per cent, and total recovery needs estimated at US$773 million.
In addition to the impacts of climate change, Pacific countries are increasingly exposed to various environmental hazards which are threatening the health of the population in the region. These include unsafe water, poor sanitation, air pollution, hazardous chemicals and occupational hazards. Furthermore, in the Pacific 70 per cent of deaths are related to NCDs (diabetes, cardiovascular, cancer and chronic respiratory diseases), one of the highest rates in the world.
The region was also economically affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. With key industries such as tourism impacted by travel restrictions, unemployment numbers jumped in some Pacific countries. In Vanuatu, 70 per cent of the jobs in the tourism sector were lost in 2020; Fiji’s tourism industry released 115,000 workers, and a survey in Samoa reported 26 per cent of business workers lost jobs. A measles outbreak also affected Samoa in 2019, impacting the economy and causing the death of more than 70 people.
Melsisi, Pentecost Island, Vanuatu
Damage from Tropical Cyclone Lola adds to the destruction left by Tropical Cyclone Harold.
UNICEF/ Rebecca OlulEfforts by governments and humanitarian actors – including OCHA and the Pacific Humanitarian Team – are ongoing to support the countries in facing natural hazards though joint preparedness efforts and emergency coordination of international partners upon request of the national governments. Of particular interest is the Anticipatory Action (AA) Framework for tropical cyclones in Fiji. The pilot project, led by OCHA and UNDRR, partially funded by the UN Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF), is the first UN-led collective AA pilot in the Pacific region. It aims to anticipate the effects of tropical cyclones, and it is the first pilot for sudden onset disasters entirely built in partnership with the National Government.
Whilst generally peaceful, the Pacific has seen conflict over the past two decades, including recent civil unrest in Solomon Islands in February 2023, due to political events. Internal conflict and social tensions remain a possibility. The economic downturns, high unemployment, joblessness, and frustrations generated by the COVID-19 pandemic could also increase the risk of social instability and/or civil unrest. In general, the Pacific region is becoming increasingly bipolarized, with competing influence of China and United States.
Pacific Island countries have shown leadership in mainstreaming climate change and disaster risk reduction. Notably, the UN resolution adopted by the UN General Assembly in 2023, spearheaded by Vanuatu, which seeks to obtain an advisory opinion by the International Court of Justice on States’ climate-change obligations. The Resolution is “recognizing that climate change is an unprecedented challenge of civilizational proportions, and that the well-being of present and future generations of humankind depends on our immediate and urgent response to it”. The document was adopted just months after the COP27 historical establishment of a Loss and Damage Fund in November 2022.

Toamua, Samoa
Soo Lulai with her daughter, Lalofau Lulai, 4, at their home. Thanks to UNICEF’s food and school supply voucher programme, Soo and her family are now able to send their children to school and have been able to save money to start a sowing business, which is helping to buy bricks to build a home for her family.
UNICEF/ Sheenal SharmaProjected situation in 2024 and beyond
The ADB’s 2023 and 2024 forecasts for growth in the Pacific economy are revised up to 3.5 per cent for 2023 and 2.9 per cent for 2024 on the continuing recovery in tourism and infrastructure investment. A strong recovery in tourism and stimulus-inducing public infrastructure projects have driven faster-than-expected growth, particularly in Fiji, the second-largest economy in the subregion.
However, economic growth could be impacted by the region’s high exposure to natural hazards, which are predicted to be above average for the 2023-2024 cyclone season. The effects of the El Niño phenomenon on the Pacific region are expected to vary. Above-normal rainfall (Nauru, Kiribati, Tuvalu, northern Cook Islands and northern French Polynesia) can result in flooding - with localized crop and food stock losses and damage infrastructure, including housing, roads and schools, damage to water sources and sanitation facilities, and contamination of water supply, leading to increased risk of water-borne diseases. Below-normal rainfall, or in some cases drought (in parts of Palau, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga, Samoa and Niue). El Niño is also associated with higher cyclone activity in the central Pacific basin, as reported by the Tropical Cyclone (TC) outlook 2023-24, where above-average TC activity (including severe TCs) is expected in the most vulnerable countries, such as Fiji, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Tonga.