Analysis of context, crisis and needs
Looking to 2024, the situation in Afghanistan and neighbouring countries remains challenging. The humanitarian needs inside Afghanistan remain dire – some 29.2 million people (two-thirds of Afghanistan’s population) require urgent humanitarian assistance to survive. The situation has been compounded by a devastating series of earthquakes in Herat in October 2023, as well as the potential impact of large-scale returns from Pakistan especially also due to the ‘Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Plan’ announced by the Government of Pakistan on 3 October. Afghans return out of fear of arrest or deportation in Pakistan. Actions implemented have a negative impact on the voluntary nature of return/act as “pressure” upon Afghans to return, even if they are not immediately/directly targeted. Some Afghans are leaving Pakistan now in anticipation that the expiry of POR cards at the end of the year will leave them undocumented and subject to removal.
The Islamic Republics of Iran and Pakistan host 8.2 million Afghans, many of whom have been in these host countries for decades, around 1.6 million have arrived since the start of 2021 alone, according to government estimates. Pakistan hosts approximately 3.7 million Afghan Refugees and Afghans of other statuses, reflecting the long history of solidarity and support extended by the country. However, the protection environment has become increasingly challenging. The presence of a substantial population of Afghan refugees and Afghans of other statuses underscores the importance of carefully navigating this evolving protection landscape. Pakistan continues to grapple with the complexities of providing adequate support and ensuring the protection of this vulnerable population while balancing the needs of its own citizens. Recognizing the plight of Afghan refugees and those in refugee-like situations, including women and girls without documentation, there is a pressing need for sustainable solutions and comprehensive support systems. It is crucial to ensure access to education and primary healthcare for all, while also creating opportunities for livelihoods to alleviate poverty and promote self-reliance. The multifaceted challenges presented by the changing protection environment highlight the ongoing need to work collaboratively and proactively to ensure the continued safety and well-being of Afghan refugees and individuals of other statuses in Pakistan. It remains crucial to foster an environment that upholds their rights and safeguards their dignity, while also addressing the concerns of the host community.
According to government estimates, Iran hosts at least 4.5 million Afghans, including over 1 million who have arrived since August 2021. This includes 3.4 million Afghan refugees and Afghans in a refugee-like situation (including some 750,000 Amayesh card holders, and over 2.6 million recorded in the 2022 headcount exercise). Many of the remaining 1.1 million Afghan individuals in Iran – including women and girls – are without documentation due to a lack of available pathways to seek asylum or regularize their stay. Afghans continue to arrive in Iran daily, primarily via irregular routes. New arrivals join millions of other Afghans who have been generously hosted in Iran for decades, many of whom are third or fourth-generation refugees. Iran continues to grant access to education and primary healthcare to Afghan nationals, including those without documentation. However, for Afghans and Iranian host communities alike, lack of livelihood and poverty - exacerbated by the combined impact of high levels of inflation and unilateral economic sanctions - continue to drive need. The most disadvantaged in society, disproportionately comprising Afghan refugees, are increasingly forced to make difficult trade-offs or resort to negative coping strategies to make ends meet. Specifically, Afghans may face challenges in covering costs related to school enrolment, healthcare, or documentation. In turn those without documentation face a particularly precarious situation due to persistent risks of deportation, labour exploitation, and further barriers to accessing services. The situation is compounded by increasing anti-Afghan sentiment across society. With durable solutions elusive to most, Afghan refugees - irrespective of documentation status - also face immediate and interlinked challenges in establishing self-reliance, leaving them susceptible to shocks and stresses.
Strategic objectives and response priorities 2024
The Refugee Response Plan (RRP) for the Afghanistan Situation has evolved into a two-year plan for 2024-2025, with partners providing a budget for 2024 as well as an indicative budget for 2025, which will be reassessed at the end of 2024, based on the developing situation. As part of this transition, moving forward the RRP will focus just on the two major host countries for Afghan refugees – Iran and Pakistan. For 2024 and 2025, it is expected that Afghan populations, including new arrivals, will remain in need of support, exacerbated by the difficult economic situation in host countries. Host communities also need significant support, and investments in infrastructure require major attention since they continue to support large Afghan populations.
Acknowledging the huge contribution of host countries, the RRP reaffirms the regional multi-stakeholder and multi-sectoral approach which aims at strengthening the humanitarian and development response in support of host governments. As well as building community resilience, the RRP will deliver concrete actions, with a focus on community-based interventions incorporating an age, gender and diversity approach, cross-border collaboration, and durable solutions within the framework of the Solutions Strategy for Afghan Refugees (SSAR). The 2024-2025 RRP, through four strategic objectives, will aim to:
- Ensure coordinated efforts towards solutions in line with the objectives of the SSAR.
- Reinforce a humanitarian-development nexus approach, to build resilient communities, strengthening local and national systems of host countries which have supported Afghans for decades, in the spirit of international responsibility- and burden-sharing and in line with the Global Compact on Refugees. Priorities include national education and healthcare infrastructure and supporting livelihoods for Afghans and host communities.
- Support host governments to ensure access to territory and asylum, and protection in accordance with international standards, including respect for the principle of non-refoulement, admission, reception, registration, and documentation.
- Respond to the basic needs of the most vulnerable, including via sustained support to government-led emergency preparedness efforts and multi-stakeholder and multi-sectoral support to swiftly respond to those newly displaced by conflict, natural disasters, and other crises, as well as to existing populations who have seen their situation deteriorate due to the rising cost of living.
In line with the Global Compact on Refugees, partner organizations in Iran and Pakistan have developed a comprehensive response plan to address the needs of Afghans and their host communities via progressive policies that promote education, livelihoods, health and social inclusion. These will continue to be critical, as will addressing cross-sectoral priorities such as PSEA, AAP and climate action. In line with this approach, partners will continue to support host governments in maintaining and expanding their inclusive policies, which provide Afghan refugees with access to education and primary health services, while also advancing support of self-reliance and durable solutions.