Global Humanitarian Overview 2023

Southern and East Africa

In Eastern Africa, the longest and most severe drought in recent history is ravaging parts of Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, and the situation is expected to worsen in 2023. Across the Horn of Africa, severe drought will affect at least 36.4 million people in the final months of 2022. Between October and December, at least 21 million people are projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity due to drought in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, and two districts in Somalia are at risk of famine. More than 9.5 million livestock—which pastoralist families rely on for sustenance and livelihoods—have already died across the region, and many more are expected to perish in the months ahead. The drought is driving alarming levels of malnutrition for children and women, threatening their lives and futures. About 5 million children are acutely malnourished in drought-affected areas, including about 1.4 million children who are severely acutely malnourished, and an estimated 1.3 million pregnant and breastfeeding women are acutely malnourished. In drought-affected areas, many women have sacrificed their own well-being and nutrition to care for their families. About 23.75 million people across the Horn of Africa cannot access enough water for drinking, cooking, cleaning or improved sanitation and hygiene. The drought is also increasing the risk of disease: all three countries hardest hit by the drought are responding to cholera outbreaks, and measles is also on the rise. Families are taking desperate measures to survive, with more than 1.7 million people leaving their homes in search of food, pasture, water and alternative livelihoods, increasing the risk of intercommunal conflict, as well as heightening pressure on already limited basic services. The drought is having devastating consequences for women and children, heightening the risk of gender-based violence and sexual exploitation and abuse, and hampering children’s access to education.

Humanitarian Response Plans

Ethiopia

Somali region, Ethiopia

Fifty-year-old Halima Mehamed, a mother of 12, lost more than half of her livestock due to severe drought.

FAO/Michael Tewelde

Conflicts in Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan, economic challenges, and other climate shocks impacting the region (including historic floods in South Sudan) continue to cause widespread food insecurity, large-scale displacement and major protection concerns. There are now 49.4 million people severely food insecure (including the 21 million impacted by drought in the Horn of Africa)—which is the highest level in recorded history, including in Sudan and South Sudan, which have the most people facing Crisis or worse food insecurity since the IPC classification began and more than 16.5 million people forcibly displaced across East Africa, including 11.5 million internally displaced people and 5 million refugees and asylum-seekers. The Horn of Africa remains a major route for mixed-migration movements to and from the Arabian Peninsula and to Europe. Grave violations against civilians continue to be committed in the region, including conflict-related sexual violence and recruitment of child soldiers.

Southern Africa remains at the forefront of the global climate crisis, while the conflict in Mozambique’s northern province of Cabo Delgado has continued to spread. During the 2021-2022 cyclone season in the South-West Indian Ocean, back-to-back tropical weather systems killed at least 890 people and affected more than 2.8 million people. About 1.58 million people were acutely food insecure due to drought in southern Angola, and 7 out of 10 districts in the Grand Sud of Madagascar remained in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), despite improvements that are largely due to the significant scale-up in humanitarian assistance in early 2022. In Cabo Delgado, conflict continues to drive rising needs: at least 945,000 people are internally displaced and 1.1 million are now severely food insecure. In recent months, attacks have shifted southward to districts previously not affected.

Communicable disease outbreaks are on the rise in Eastern and Southern Africa, and an Ebola outbreak in Uganda, which began in September 2022, threatens to spread to other countries. Measles and cholera outbreaks have been recorded in multiple countries across the region, and polio outbreaks are active in Malawi and Mozambique.

Sudan

Ashat village, Tokar locality, Sudan

Children and adults at a water facility that is open all day and serves about 350 households.

UNICEF/Ahmed Ammar

Projected situation in 2023 and beyond

Looking ahead to 2023, needs are expected to rise in Eastern Africa—driven by the Horn of Africa drought and multiple conflicts—and in Southern Africa—driven by floods, cyclones, drought and conflict in northern Mozambique.

  • In Eastern Africa: The October-December 2022 rains are projected to fail, and early forecasts indicate that the March-May 2023 rains will be below average. Therefore, the drought in the Horn of Africa will escalate to unprecedented levels, causing skyrocketing humanitarian needs and large-scale displacement. At the same time, conflict is likely to continue—and potentially escalate—in Ethiopia (and, relatedly, Eritrea), South Sudan and Sudan, while the threat of violent extremism persists, particularly in Kenya, Somalia and now Ethiopia, following Al Shabaab’s recent incursions. At the same time, the impacts of the global climate crisis will continue to be felt in the region in the years ahead. According to the ND-GAIN Index, four countries in the Horn of Africa (Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan) are among the most vulnerable 10 per cent to climate change. This combination of conflict and climate change is therefore expected to remain a toxic mix with potentially devastating consequences for the Eastern Africa region in 2023.
  • In Southern Africa: Severe drought is expected to persist in the Grand Sud of Madagascar and southern Angola, based on seasonal forecasts. Other parts of the region will likely experience above-average rains and floods due to La Niña, and several cyclones are likely to impact vulnerable communities (especially in Madagascar and Mozambique). Meanwhile, the conflict in northern Mozambique has the potential to expand geographically, while political unrest is expected to continue in Eswatini. Zimbabwe and Madagascar are expected to undergo tense elections.
Kenya

Turkana, Kenya

Selina and her mother carry firewood in Kalakol. This is now their main source of income. Their animals are emaciated and no longer produce milk to sell.

OCHA/Jane Kiiru

Burundi

People in Need at launch (Dec. 2022)
1.5 million
People Targeted at launch (Dec. 2022)
1.1 million
Requirements (US$) at launch (Dec. 2022)
194.2 million
Total Population
13.5 million
Income level
Low income
INFORM Severity Index
6 / High
Consecutive appeals
2016 - 2023

Analysis of the context, crisis and needs

Despite the relative improvement of the humanitarian situation in Burundi — from 2.3 million people in need in 2021 to 1.8 million in 2022 (a 21 per cent decrease) — the current number of vulnerable communities still requires a coordinated humanitarian response and more investment for durable solutions.

In 2023, about 1.5 million people will need humanitarian assistance, a 17 per cent decrease compared to 2022 (1.8 million people). The main causes of the population’s vulnerability include the impact of repeated shocks related to natural disasters, the socioeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, and most recently the inflation of 19.6 per cent linked to the crisis in Ukraine, in a context where 53.1 per cent of the population lives below the poverty line. The pressure of inflation is slowing down economic growth and directly impacting businesses across sectors. This is reducing job opportunities and access to basic social services for the population.

Due to these factors,1.4 million people are currently severely food insecure in Burundi. The rainfall deficit observed during the last quarter of 2022 compromises the agricultural production for 2023 and will likely worsen food insecurity.

Burundi

Gatumba, Burundi

Children swim and fish in the floodwaters that cover a street. 

OCHA/Camille Marquis

Burundi continues to face population movements caused by the effects of floods and erratic rains as well as low socioeconomic opportunities. As of October 2022, 84,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) were registered in the country. More than 80 per cent of these people have been displaced since January 2022 for reasons related to natural disasters. Coupled with the rising number of returnees (estimated at 204,000 people), this means that the situation remains dire for displaced people. Lack of access to basic services and limited assistance also render displaced people more vulnerable to exploitation and gender-based violence, increasing the burden on host communities. In Burundi, 69 per cent of repatriated children were not enrolled in schools in 2022 (against 50 per cent in 2021), and 63 per cent of repatriated people cannot afford access to health-care services. Sixty-one per cent of returnees eat just one meal a day, more than 73 per cent lack farming tools and many do not have access to land. Only durable solutions would prevent future displacements of people, including IDPs and returnees living in natural disaster-prone areas.

Burundi

Muyinga, Burundi

Refugees from Burundi pass through the Transit Centre in Kinazi on their return home. 

OCHA/Camille Marquis

In 2023, UNHCR planning figures indicate that 75,000 Burundian refugees are expected to return to Burundi and receive assistance through sustainable solutions. Moreover, due to the volatile security situation in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), UNHCR estimates that 33,000 people will seek refuge in Burundi, joining 87,000 refugees and asylum-seekers already in the country.

In September 2022, an outbreak of Ebola Sudan Virus Disease was declared in Uganda — a country well connected to Burundi, with almost daily flights and numerous road connections. This presents an additional public health risk to recurrent outbreaks affecting the country.

In 2023, humanitarian partners will concentrate their operations on emergency needs, while supporting national authorities’ efforts to continue strengthening preparedness, early warning and the coordination of humanitarian and development interventions to significantly reduce the fragility of vulnerable communities.

Projected situation in 2023 and beyond

The consequences of recurring natural disasters combined with recurrent epidemics and zoonoses, as well as the pandemic’s socioeconomic impacts, are expected to continue contributing to persistent humanitarian needs throughout 2023, especially in terms of food insecurity and nutrition.

The rising prices and shortage of basic commodities, including food, fuel and fertilizer, will cause vulnerable households’ food insecurity to deteriorate if they are left without assistance.

New flows of forcibly displaced people linked to natural disasters, the continued arrival of returnees, and refugees and asylum-seekers fleeing insecurity in eastern DRC may be expected.

Burundi

Ceru Hill, Kirundo Commune, Kirundo Province

Insufficient rainfall has led to a low production of corn.

OCHA/Camille Marquis

Response priorities in 2023

Humanitarian partners in Burundi have rigorously scrutinized the humanitarian context to prioritize the response to critical needs in 2023. As a result, 1.1 million of the most vulnerable people will be targeted for assistance. The humanitarian response will cover their needs in terms of food and essential non-food items, access to basic social services and protection through in-kind and cash interventions.

The response will prioritize the most vulnerable populations, particularly food insecure people, returnees and victims of natural disasters, including IDPs, and people affected by or at risk of epidemics and zoonoses. The priority areas of interventions will include the most impacted areas in Burundi’s northern, eastern and western provinces.

Humanitarian assistance in 2023 will be strongly linked to national programmes supported by local and international development partners to increase affected people’s resilience to climate shocks.

Ethiopia

People in Need at launch (Dec. 2022)
28.6 million
People Targeted at launch (Dec. 2022)
26.6 million
Requirements (US$) at launch (Dec. 2022)
3.5 billion
Total Population
120.8 million
Income level
Low income
INFORM Severity Index
7 / Very High
Consecutive appeals
2017 - 2023

Analysis of the context, crisis and needs

People in Ethiopia continue to face multiple and overlapping humanitarian emergencies. The adverse impacts of climate change, conflict and disease outbreaks, coupled with global poor macroeconomic conditions and high inflation leading to high commodity and food prices, have contributed to escalating humanitarian and protection needs across the country.

The number of people in need has significantly increased because of the worsening drought and conflict in parts of the country. As of October 2022, more than 4.7 million people across the country are estimated to be internally displaced people (IDPs), mostly due to conflict and drought.

The conflict in northern Ethiopia has resulted in massive population movements, including waves of displacement, secondary displacement and returns, with many returnees going back to areas where basic services are not operational due to damaged and destroyed civilian infrastructure and facilities. The conflict has also caused significant negative impacts on humanitarian operations in and around Tigray, Amhara and Afar Regions.

The humanitarian situation worsened in late August, resulting in further displacements against the backdrop of the suspension of aid convoys’ movement into Tigray by road and air. The signing of a comprehensive peace agreement in November 2022 is a promising step towards stabilization of the situation. However, months, if not years, are needed for humanitarian operators to be able to address the high magnitude of humanitarian needs in the northern parts of the country.

Ethiopia

Azati Kitli Returnee Village, Benishangul-Gumuz Region

These displaced people make and sell a local brew from wheat, which provides income and nutrition. 

OCHA/Liz Loh-Taylor

Since late 2020, Ethiopia has experienced four below-normal rainy seasons. There is a high likelihood of a fifth failed season following a forecast of poor and below-normal rainfall from October to December 2022. This triggered the worst drought conditions observed in more than four decades in large swaths of the country. In parallel, heavy rains recorded in July and August in some regions (Afar, Amhara and Gambella) resulted in floods and high population displacement and impacted the delivery of humanitarian supplies. Food insecurity, malnutrition, water access and the health conditions of the affected population keep worsening, with eroded coping capacities and increased vulnerabilities. Drought-induced displacements are staggering, compounding the already high numbers of IDPs living in drought-affected areas. More than 4 million livestock have perished, and more than 30 million livestock have emaciated/poor body conditions due to a lack of pasture and water. A cholera outbreak has been reported, affecting the most vulnerable people in Oromia and Somali Regions.

In parallel, high levels of violence in other regions in the country, especially in Oromia and Benishangul Gumuz Regions, continue to displace a high number of people, impacting lives and livelihoods. Protection risks remain a serious concern in conflict, violence and drought-affected areas, with increasing reports of sexual and gender-based violence, families being separated and children becoming orphans.

Hubi Ahimed Hilmi, 60, a mother of 10 and an IDP from Kebridehar wereda, Derkele kebele to Kebrieyah wereda, Maragacho kebele because of drought.

Berhale, Ethiopia

A man stands in a conflict-damaged market. Before the conflict, the town benefited from salt production, livestock sales and markets.

OCHA/Liz Loh-Taylor

Projected situation in 2023 and beyond

The current humanitarian situation is not expected to stabilize in 2023, given the seasonal forecast of additional consecutive poor rainfall seasons in parts of the country. This unprecedented climatic shock will have a ripple effect on the lives and livelihoods of pastoralist and agropastoralist communities in various areas of Ethiopia, leading to potential loss of life, widespread loss of livestock, heightened food insecurity, high malnutrition rates and further erosion of already overstretched coping strategies of the most vulnerable populations.

The effects of conflict and violence will continue to exacerbate the already dire and fragile humanitarian conditions of vulnerable people, who will require immediate life-saving interventions. Increased efforts need to be scaled up to address the immediate and critical humanitarian needs while linking up with resilience and development programmes.

Hubi Ahimed Hilmi, 60, a mother of 10 and an IDP from Kebridehar wereda, Derkele kebele to Kebrieyah wereda, Maragacho kebele because of drought.

Somali region, Ethiopia

Sixty-year-old Hubi Ahimed Hilmi, a mother of 10, was displaced from Kebridehar wered due to drought.

FAO/Michael Tewelde

Response priorities in 2023

The overall response strategy for 2023 is underpinned by an intersectoral analysis that informs multisectoral approaches to address the following protection-focused and people-centred response priorities (with particular attention to the needs of children, youth, women, the elderly, people with disabilities and other groups with specific needs):

  1. Provision of life-saving humanitarian assistance. The numerous compounded crises have impacted the lives of millions of people, who require life-saving humanitarian assistance in safety and dignity through local and community-based interventions.
  2. Provision of life-sustaining assistance. This includes efforts to assist affected and at-risk populations with enhanced and sustained access to essential health services, protection, emergency shelter, education, and safe water, sanitation and hygiene services.
  3. Improvement of coping mechanisms of the affected and at-risk population through income-generating and resilience-building activities, as well as strengthening interlinkages with development partners to support a sustainable recovery.

The 2023 Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) requires US$3.5 billion to respond urgently to immediate and increased humanitarian needs. This is in line with the increased target population and financial request of the 2022 Mid-Year HRP of $3.3 billion to respond to increasing needs until the end of 2022.

Kenya

People in Need at launch (Dec. 2022)
6.4 million
People Targeted at launch (Dec. 2022)
4.3 million
Requirements (US$) at launch (Dec. 2022)
472.6 million
Total Population
56.2 million
Income level
Lower middle income
INFORM Severity Index
6.7 / Very High
Consecutive appeals
2021 - 2023

Analysis of the context, crisis and needs

Kenya is facing an unprecedented drought due to five—and potentially six—consecutive below average rainy seasons. At the end of 2022, an estimated 4.4 million people are projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), including 1.2 million in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and at least 2.5 million livestock have died due to the drought. This is the highest level of acute food insecurity ever recorded in the country, surpassing the 3.7 million people in IPC Phase 3+ during the 2011 drought and 3.4 million in 2017. More than 4.1 million people cannot access enough water for drinking, cooking and cleaning, with women and girls having to choose between using water for cooking and their own personal menstrual hygiene. About 884,500 children are facing acute malnutrition (including 222,700 who are severely malnourished) and three out of ten sub-counties surveyed (Turkana North, Turkana South and Marsabit North Horr) in June and July had global acute malnutrition (GAM) rates nearly, or more than, twice the emergency threshold, while a further six had GAM rates above the emergency threshold. The drought has also exacerbated the risk of communicable diseases—including cholera and measles—heightening the risk of death, especially for malnourished children and women.

Kenya

Garissa, Kenya

Students learn literature at Shatabaq Secondary School. The school has 124 boys and 61 girls. Around 35 students have dropped out as they were unable to pay school fees. 

OCHA/Jane Kiiru

The worsening drought is exacerbating insecurity and resource-based conflicts in many drought-affected counties, which have led to injuries, loss of lives and stock thefts in Baringo, Nyeri, Meru, Lamu, Mandera, Turkana and Marsabit counties. The drought has also significantly heightened protection risks for women and children. Many women have sacrificed their own wellbeing and nutrition to care for their families. Girls have been pulled out of school for early marriage, and families have been separated as men and boys seek forage and food for livestock. More than 54,500 children in 17 drought-affected counties are at risk of dropping out of school unless urgent measures are taken to provide them with sufficient food and water. Older people—especially in pastoralist communities—are also facing unique consequences due to the drought, as younger and more able-bodied adults have travelled further afield in search of forage and food or migrated to urban areas in search of work.

The devastating drought is unfolding at a time when people in the ASAL region are still struggling to recover from multiple recent shocks—including the desert locust outbreak of 2019-2021 and the COVID-19 pandemic—as well as facing price rises in food and fuel due to the war in Ukraine.

Local networks provide vital expertise  

Kenya

A vibrant network of locally led organizations is at the core of drought response in Kenya. These organizations work with and come from the most-affected communities. The Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASAL) Humanitarian Network (AHN) was established in March 2019. Its 30 members—including women-led organizations—operate in 10 of the most vulnerable ASAL counties and bring expertise ranging from cash programming and WASH to women’s rights and community mobilization.   

 

In partnership with local and international actors, AHN is actively implementing drought-response initiatives. Since August 2021, its members have provided cash transfers to about 26,400 households to fight food insecurity and save livelihoods. The transfers reach households fast and give them the autonomy to make their own decisions on how to use the money.  

AHN members are also safeguarding access to clean and safe water, proper sanitation and effective hygiene for local communities. This includes rehabilitating and solarizing boreholes, and providing essential hygiene items and dignity kits for healthy menstrual management among women and girls. To address the increased risks of sexual and gender-based violence (GBV) due to the drought, and under the leadership of AHN’s women’s rights organizations, people at risk of GBV receive legal and medical referrals and psychosocial support. AHN is also raising awareness of these risks through radio programmes and by working closely with communities.   

Funding remains a major challenge for AHN members; less than 5 per cent of the resources mobilized under the 2022 Flash Appeal have gone directly to local and community-based organizations in the Kenya drought response.   

OCHA/Jane Kiiru

Projected situation in 2023 and beyond

From October to December 2022, ASAL counties are expected to receive rainfall totals that are less than 60 per cent of the average, with some worst-affected regions experiencing the poorest start of season on record, resulting in an unprecedented fifth consecutive poor season. In addition, although long-lead forecasts have an inherent level of uncertainty and therefore need to be closely monitored, the current consensus among experts is that below-average rainfall is likely during the March to May (MAM) 2023 season, which would culminate in a record sixth consecutive poor season. The drought in Kenya’s ASAL region is therefore expected to deepen well into 2023, causing humanitarian needs to continue to rise.

Regardless of next year’s rainfall performance, recovery from a drought of this magnitude will take years, with extremely high humanitarian needs set to persist and even increase beyond 2023. Many people have completely lost their livelihoods and coping capacities and are relying heavily on humanitarian assistance to meet basic needs, which will challenge the drought recovery.

Kenya

Garissa, Kenya

Shamsa Hassan, 10, is a pupil at Bangal Primary School. During the school’s morning break, she helps her parents by fetching water. 

OCHA/Jane Kiiru

Response priorities in 2023

From January to September 2022, humanitarian action in Kenya was significantly scaled-up in response to the rapidly escalating drought emergency, in full complementarity with Government-led relief efforts. Nearly 1 million people in the ASAL region were reached with life-saving and life-sustaining assistance by 89 humanitarian organizations, including UN entities, international and national non-governmental organizations and the Kenya Red Cross Society. Some 792,000 people to access safe and clean drinking water, receive sanitation and hygiene items. In addition, 633,000 people received much needed food and livelihood assistance; and more than 293,000 children under age 5 and pregnant and lactating women were able to access nutrition services, therefore improving child survival and development.

However, throughout the year, funding levels remained well below what was required, resulting in humanitarian partners being unable to reach all of the people they had aimed to assist. By the end of the year, partners will likely have reached less than 50 per cent of those targeted, largely due to under-funding. Insecurity also remained a challenge in some key drought-affected areas, including in Mandera and Marsabit counties. However, local and national organizations were able to work in these areas due to their extensive knowledge of the context and strong community acceptance,

The 2023 Drought Response Plan is premised on the understanding that a clearly prioritized multi-sectoral and integrated response to the drought crisis is critical. To this end, seven priority 1 counties are identified for the most urgent life-saving response, based on an inter-sectoral analysis—focused on the Food, Nutrition, Health and WASH sectors—of the severity of needs. A further nine priority 2 counties are identified, where partners will aim to provide life-sustaining interventions and avert a further deterioration in people’s needs. Protection will be integrated across the response, given the significant increase in protection risks caused by the drought, especially with respect to gender-based violence and child protection. Education interventions will also be vital in light of the high risk of school drop-outs and the life-long consequences this will have for affected children and their communities.

Madagascar

People in Need at launch (Dec. 2022)
1.6 million
People Targeted at launch (Dec. 2022)
1.15 million
Requirements (US$) at launch (Dec. 2022)
147 million
Total Population
29.2 million
Income level
Low income
INFORM Severity Index
5.3 / High
Consecutive appeals
2007 - 2023

Analysis of the context, crisis and needs

The Grand Sud of Madagascar was rocked by consecutive droughts during the 2019/2020 and 2020/2021 rainy seasons and is now faced with the prospect of a late start to the 2022/2023 rainy season. Following a massive scale-up in humanitarian assistance from January to May 2022, food insecurity and malnutrition improved in the Grand Sud, and no district has been in Emergency phase (IPC 4) since May 2022.

However, the situation has remained fragile. The planting of crops in 2022 was delayed by a poor start to the season and, although crops were eventually planted following the rains brought by cyclones and storms, the heavy rains also contributed to a resurgence of migratory locusts and good conditions for fall armyworm. As a result, more than 1.2 million people were projected to be in Crisis (IPC phase 3) and above from September to November 2022.

Madagascar

Grand Sud, Madagascar

Sand covers many plantations in the Grand Sud of Madagascar, but people try to plant anyway. Sandstorms have transformed arable land into wasteland across wide areas in the region. 

OCHA/Viviane Rakotoarivony

Cyclone-affected areas in the Grand Sud-Est are still recovering from the devastation caused by two consecutive cyclones in 2022, which left people facing Crisis (IPC phase 3) levels of food insecurity for the first time and caused production losses and damages estimated at more than US$160 million, including livelihoods, housing and school infrastructure.

Madagascar

Mananjary, Madagascar

People displaced by Cyclone Batsirai receive hot meals at an elementary school. 

OCHA/Viviane Rakotoarivony

Projected situation in 2023 and beyond

Looking ahead to 2023, the situation in the Grand Sud is expected to deteriorate once again. Rainfall during the beginning of the 2022/2023 rainy season is forecasted to be less than average, coinciding with the start of the agriculture season. Households in the region are already facing significant limitations in access to food due to the absence of any meaningful cassava and sweet potato harvests, rising food prices, and well below-average income-generating opportunities, according to FEWSNET. The war in Ukraine has also caused a significant increase in oil and food prices in Madagascar.

In the hardest-hit areas, humanitarian assistance has been the primary reason why families have been able to stave off Emergency and/or Catastrophe food insecurity. However, funding is not secured for 2023, and needs are expected to rise throughout the lean season, which will peak from January to April. The risk of displacement remains high, especially during the hunger gap season, as it is one of the most common coping mechanisms for drought-affected families. Should the 2022/2023 harvests fail, needs will also increase over the course of the year and rise precipitously at the onset of the next lean season in the fourth quarter.

The on-going cyclone season, which will last until April 2023, may also drive additional needs as two out of every three people in Madagascar live in areas prone to cyclones and floods. Although the forecast indicates that this cyclone season is likely to be close to, or below, the annual average, the national contingency plan for 2022-2023 predicts the passage of two climate events, affecting about 800,000 people in the country.

Madagascar

Grand Sud, Madagascar

A family searches for drinking water in Amboasary District.

OCHA/Viviane Rakotoarivony

Response priorities in 2023

Given the scale, duration and severity of the drought in the Grand Sud of Madagascar, humanitarian assistance has been—and remains—critical. Partners scaled up their responses significantly in 2021 and 2022, averting the worst outcomes and avoiding a return to IPC phase 5 (Catastrophic) level needs. In 2022, humanitarian partners responded to both the devastating drought in the Grand Sud of Madagascar, as well as to the destruction and needs caused by cyclones which impacted the Grand Sud-Est of the country. From January to September, 1.75 million people were reached with vital assistance, including more than 1.5 million who received food assistance, more than 668,300 who received cash transfers, and nearly 225,000 people provided with improved access to clean water. Women and girls were the focus of targeted interventions, with 164,600 people reached with awareness-raising efforts to prevent gender-based violence and promote reproductive health, at least 15,200 survivors of violence and sexual abuse received psychosocial, legal, and medical support and more than 9,300 pregnant women receiving four antenatal care visits. Likewise, children were a specific focus in the response, with 24,730 children vaccinated against preventable disease and 98,000 children receiving school kits.

In 2023, the focus of the response will remain on saving lives and alleviating suffering due to the drought and cyclone crises, with a focus on food security, nutrition, health and WASH. At the same time, partners will ensure the centrality of protection—particularly given the consequences of the drought for women and girls’ safety—and education, with schools providing both a safe haven for drought-affected children and a vital entry point for referrals to other programmes, including nutrition and child protection.

Mozambique

People in Need at launch (Dec. 2022)
2 million
People Targeted at launch (Dec. 2022)
1.6 million
Requirements (US$) at launch (Dec. 2022)
513 million
Total Population
33.1 million
Income level
Low income
INFORM Severity Index
7.2 / Very High
Consecutive appeals
2019 - 2023

Analysis of the context, crisis and needs

Following a sharp escalation in the first half of 2021, the conflict in Cabo Delgado – which started in October 2017 – slowed down in early 2022 following the deployment of regional and international armed forces that aided the Government of Mozambique in regaining control of areas previously under the control of non-State armed groups (NSAGs). However, the conflict resumed and for the first time in areas that had not seen attacks in Cabo Delgado and Nampula.

In 2022, the conflict in northern Mozambique continued to deepen the needs of displaced people — many forced to flee multiple times — and host communities, who have shown solidarity in the face of increasingly stretched resources and services.According to the latest IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix
Baseline Assessment Round (June), more than 945,000 people were estimated to be internally displaced in northern Mozambique by June 2022. Of those people, 869,603 were in Cabo Delgado, 73,699 in Nampula and 2,130 in Niassa. Children and women accounted for 55 per cent and 24 per cent of displaced people, respectively. Around 70 per cent of displaced people were staying in host communities, whose already meagre resources were strained by the growing influx of people.

The armed conflict also heightened food insecurity and malnutrition, with families forced to abandon their homes and fields, and erratic rainfall in some parts of the region compounding crop losses, according to the latest IPC analysis. In the three northern provinces — Cabo Delgado, Nampula and Niassa — more than 1,100,000 people are severely food insecure. The analysis covered internally displaced people (IDPs) in five districts (Ancuabe, Balama, Chiúre, Metuge and Namuno) and households hosting IDPs in seven districts (Ancuabe, Balama, Chiúre, Metuge, Montepuez, Namuno and Pemba City), and it highlighted the severe toll the crisis has taken on host communities.

Mozambique

Paquitequete, Mozambique

Internally displaced families arrive at Pemba’s Paquitequete beach by boat.  

UN/Helvisney Cardoso

The conflict significantly reduced civilians’ access to essential services across Cabo Delgado. According to UNDP’s Infrastructure Damage Assessment of January to May 2022 in Cabo Delgado, the level of damage to public infrastructure is severe in districts that had been under the control of NSAGs. This is in addition to health and water facilities being damaged by recurring natural disasters. More than 93 per cent of the 30 health facilities assessed had been partially damaged, and more than half the buildings surveyed do not have access to drinking water. All education facilities assessed were also found to be damaged.

According to UNICEF, prior to the conflict, 45 per cent of health facilities in Cabo Delgado lacked access to water, and 85 per cent of schools did not have adequate hygiene facilities. The arrival of displaced people has put even more pressure on the limited WASH infrastructures in health facilities and schools. A UNICEF survey shows that in 2021, schools, and their WASH infrastructures, have been severely impacted by the insecurity in Cabo Delgado, with 249 schools affected and 46 schools destroyed.

Field reports indicate that in 12 of the 17 districts in Cabo Delgado Province, the doctor/people ratio is 1/10,000; with southern districts, where the majority of the displaced people are, shwoing worse indicators (one doctor/136,000 people in Namuno, and one doctor/80,000 in Metuge).
These circumstances have reduced the capacity to detect and respond to disease outbreaks, including cholera and measles, and to provide critical and timely care, such as sexual and reproductive health care, immunization activities, access to anti-retrovirals and treatment for tuberculosis.

Mozambique

Montepuez District, Mozambique

Atanásio Mateus, 28, works in his field. 

UN/Helvisney Cardoso

In 2022, at least 1.5 million people needed life-saving and life-sustaining humanitarian assistance and protection in northern Mozambique due to the continued impact of the armed conflict and violence in Cabo Delgado Province. They included conflict-displaced people, as well as people in host communities whose coping capacities have been exhausted following three years of opening their homes to people fleeing the violence. While the Government continued to combat NSAGs and restore peace in Cabo Delgado — with support from the international community and allied forces — some returns have been taking place. However, the situation remains volatile. Additionally, the conflict and repeated displacement destroyed livelihoods and disrupted markets and essential services across the hardest-hit districts in the north-west, particularly affecting access to education and health services in a region facing endemic disease outbreaks.

In 2022, the humanitarian response to conflict in northern Mozambique targeted 1.2 million people for assistance and protection in Cabo Delgado, Nampula and Niassa. The geographic focus of the response was aligned with the severity of the needs identified, with an emphasis on districts that hosted the highest numbers of displaced people and districts hardest hit by the conflict. Humanitarian actors have been coordinating with development actors, who are working to rebuild infrastructure and re-establish essential services impacted by the conflict.

Mozambique

Zambezia Province, Mozambique

The main bridge on National Road 1 connects Zambezia to Nampula Provinces, which were impacted by Cyclone Gombe.

NGD CENOE/Beleza

Climatic shocks further compounded the vulnerability of people suffering the effects of the conflict. Mozambique is a large country with varied landscapes and corresponding climatic conditions. The coastal region is affected by cyclones and tropical storms, the various river basins are affected by floods, and drought is most predominant in the country’s arid and semi-arid regions. Across these locations there can be a geographic overlap, and multiple hazards may occur in the same locations. Cyclones are the most frequent natural hazard reported in recent years (17 events between 1920-2016). They also cause the greatest attributable economic losses (55.8 per cent of economic losses between 1990-2014), and they are responsible for a considerable number of deaths (11 per cent of deaths related to disasters between 1990-2014).

Drought is a dire concern for the population’s well-being; 80 per cent of the population depends on rain-fed agriculture. Drought events have been increasing in frequency, with 12 events recorded in the period 1920-2016 affecting arid and semi-arid areas, where warming temperatures and drier conditions are becoming a common occurrence and driving food insecurity, malnutrition, migration, gender-based violence and other negative outcomes.

During the last rainy reason (October 2021-April 2022) Mozambique was hit by four extreme weather events. They affected at least 1,043,000 people and created large-scale damage to private and public infrastructure, affecting 22,000 hectares of agricultural land, flooding 180,000 homes, and damaging more than 6,000 km of roads, 2,127 schools and 2,981 energy towers. Tropical Cyclone Gombe, a category 3 cyclone, was the weather event that most affected people of Mozambique, with Nampula province being the hardest hit. Of the 736,000 people affected by Gombe, more than 642,000 were in Nampula. For people in villages across Nampula who had already shared their meagre resources with the displaced people from Cabo Delgado, Tropical Cyclone Gombe’s landfall represented a crisis on top of a crisis.

Mozambique

Beira city, Mozambique

The Munhava neighbourhood after Tropical Cyclone Eloise.

UN/Brenda Hada

Projected situation in 2023 and beyond

In 2023, approximately 2 million people will need life-saving and life-sustaining humanitarian assistance and protection in northern Mozambique due to the continued impact of armed conflict, violence and insecurity in Cabo Delgado province. They include 945,000 conflict-displaced people, as well as people in host communities and people who return to their home districts. The needs of 33,000 refugees will be reflected in the Humanitarian Needs Overview through the inclusion of a distinct refugee chapter with a relevant budget.

Humanitarian needs are concentrated in the districts hardest hit by the conflict, namely Chiure, Macomia, Mocimboa da Praia, Palma and Quissanga, as well as those districts that host the highest number of displaced people, namely Ancuabe, Metuge, Montepuez, Mueda, Nangade and Pemba. The unique needs of women and girls are a high priority; 53 per cent of people in need are female and women-headed households who are faced with specific challenges. The crisis severely impacted children, with some 59 per cent of people across Cabo Delgado, Nampula and Niassa being under 19 years old, according to the census. While only 3 per cent of people in the three provinces are over 65 years old, they face multiple unique challenges, including dirculties [eeing con[ict as well as constraints on physical access to services. Ensuring access to vital services and holistic support for the estimated 468,000 people (most of whom are women) living with HIV in the three provinces is critical.

Mozambique

Beira, Mozambique

A resident of the Praia Nova neighbourhood takes shelter from Tropical Cyclone Eloise in the Agostinho Neto school. 

UNICEF/Ricardo Franco

The climate forecast model indicates above-average rainfall between October 2022 and March 2023, and and a rather below normal activity in the South-West Indian Ocean cyclone basin between December 2022 and March 2023. This season could therefore see the development of 6 to 10 systems (tropical storms and cyclones), with 3 to 5 reaching the stage of a tropical cyclone among them. Mozambique remains extremely vulnerable. It is estimated that across Mozambique, 1.74 million people will be vulnerable to natural disasters, namely cyclones, floods and droughts, in the 2022/2023 rainy/cyclone season. During 2023, OCHA will lay the basis for coordinated anticipatory action in Mozambique in 2024. Based on trend analysis, Gaza, Inhambane and Tete provinces present high risks related to drought. Similarly, cyclones are likely to affect Nampula, Sofala and Zambezia provinces, with potentially devastating outcomes for communities and infrastructure.

Response priorities in 2023

In 2023, the humanitarian response in northern Mozambique will target approximately 2 million people in the most urgent need of assistance and protection in Cabo Delgado, Nampula and Niassa. The geographic focus of the response is aligned with the severity of the needs identified, with an emphasis on districts that host the highest numbers of displaced people and districts hardest hit by the conflict. The priority is to provide life-saving assistance to people who have borne the brunt of the conflict, including protection services, shelter, food assistance, treatment for acute malnutrition, and emergency obstetric care. In addition, humanitarian partners will provide life-sustaining support for people whose access to assistance, essential services (especially education, health care, WASH and livelihoods) has been compromised by the conflict. The humanitarian community is strengthening rapid response mechanisms to provide immediate support to people affected by sudden outbursts of violence.

The focus of the humanitarian response is on responding to the needs of the most vulnerable people affected by conflict in the three provinces in the north. However, in developing the needs and vulnerability analysis, the humanitarian community adopted a multi-hazard approach that also looked at the historical impact of natural disasters and the population at risk of cyclones, floods and drought in 2023. Placing different hazards at the centre of the analysis allowed for a focused and risk-informed approach that also considers early action and anticipatory action.

The approach for the different hazards will differ, including with regards to timing, triggers, actions and funding requirements. However, a strategy will be developed outlining the viable approaches across these elements, building on the pre-existing work by humanitarian partners.

Humanitarian actors will coordinate with the Government and development actors, who are working to rebuild infrastructure and re-establish essential services impacted by the conflict. Humanitarian partners will focus on life-saving and life-sustaining assistance while advocating for the creation of conditions that favour re-establishing essential services and livelihoods. Investments on building and rehabilitating public and private services, such as public administration buildings, health and
education facilities, access roads, energy and telecommunication systems, water supplies, markets
and shops are set to continue in 2023.

Finding new ways to deliver life-saving assistance  

Mozambique

In 2022, humanitarians and partners worked intensively to access areas that were previously cut off in Mozambique, developing strategies to enable road and air access in hard-to-reach areas. As insecurity along Cabo Delgado’s roads threatened the provision of assistance, the humanitarian community secured 13 helicopter landing zones across the province, facilitating access to people who need life-saving assistance in hard-to-reach areas. Through access assessments, humanitarian actors regularly received updated information on access to partially accessible/hard-to-reach areas and alternative roads. 

Humanitarian actors regularly engaged with national/international armed forces on humanitarian principles and operations, ensuring dialogue and the safeguarding of humanitarian principles and operations. Coordination efforts were localized to enable the timely provision of assistance in the wake of violence. District coordination meetings were held in southern and coastal districts (Ibo) and northern districts (Mueda, Palma), efforts were redoubled to provide assistance in the south, and assistance was expanded to Mueda to cover northern areas. Agencies also sought to expand local actors’ participation to increase their response capacity.  

OCHA/Saviano Abreu 

Somalia

People in Need at launch (Dec. 2022)
7.8 million
People Targeted at launch (Dec. 2022)
7.6 million
Requirements (US$) at launch (Dec. 2022)
2.3 billion
Total Population
16.9 million
Income level
Low income
INFORM Severity Index
8.7 / Very High
Consecutive appeals
1998 - 2023

Analysis of the context, crisis and needs

The humanitarian situation in Somalia continues to deteriorate. Despite recent progress, active conflict, widespread insecurity, recurrent climate shocks, disease outbreaks and increasing poverty are driving humanitarian needs and devastating the people of Somalia.

The recent escalation of the military offensive against Al Shabaab has significant humanitarian implications, including increased displacement and reprisal attacks. Ongoing military operations present on one hand an opportunity for expanded access into areas previously under Al Shabaab control, but on the other hand the increased likelihood of widespread insecurity and acute deterioration of humanitarian access. This uncertainty will require partners to exercise flexibility in programming to shift away from insecure areas and to enter newly recovered areas.

Furthermore, the current extreme, widespread and persistent multi-season drought is unprecedented. Following the historic failure of four consecutive rainy seasons, Somalia is facing a climatic event not previously seen in at least 40 years. The current drought has surpassed the 2010/2011 and 2016/2017 droughts in terms of duration and severity, and a fifth failed rainy season is projected by early 2023.

Somalia

Gedo Region, Somalia Doolow

A doctor checks a young girl’s upper-arm measurement at Doolow Referral Health Centre.

OCHA/Yao Chen

Humanitarian needs continue to grow. The number of people affected by the unprecedented drought has more than doubled since the beginning of the year. Currently 7.8 million people — nearly half of Somalia’s estimated population — have been affected. Displacement has increased threefold since the beginning of 2022, with more than 1.3 million people displaced due to drought.

The lives and livelihoods of the most vulnerable and marginalized people have been irreversibly harmed, and last-resort coping mechanisms have been exhausted. The drought has devastated the agriculture sector, which accounts for up to 60 per cent of Somalia’s GDP, 80 per cent of its employment and 90 per cent of its exports. Since mid-2021, one third of all livestock in the worst-affected areas have died. Conditions for crop and livestock production are expected to remain extremely poor until at least the start of the next rainy season in April 2023, if not longer, leading to further loss of livelihoods.

With only 57 per cent received of the US$2.27 billion needed to fund the response, critical response programmes have been stretched to breaking point. The humanitarian community is struggling to keep pace with the increasing scale, scope and severity of needs. An urgent infusion of funds is needed to respond to the most critical needs and mitigate the impending loss of life across Somalia in the months ahead.

Somalia

Doolow, Somalia

Two girls at Kaharey IDP site.

OCHA/Yao Chen

Projected situation in 2023 and beyond

The impact of the drought, widespread insecurity and increasing economic pressures are driving the country to the brink of famine. Between October and December 2022, famine is projected, specifically among rural residents in the Baidoa and Burhakaba districts and displaced people in Baidoa in the Bay region. In addition, several areas in central and southern Somalia have an increased risk of famine through at least December 2022. Without humanitarian assistance, more than one in three Somalis, or nearly 6.7 million people, are expected to face acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3) or worse levels through the end of 2023.

Acute malnutrition in children is on the rise. More than half of all children under age 5 will likely face acute malnutrition through mid-2023, including over 513,000 who are expected to be severely malnourished. The increased prevalence of communicable diseases directly contributes to rising levels of acute malnutrition.

Water shortages are at critical levels, exposing vulnerable people to additional risk. About 6.4 million people lack access to safe water, while only less than one third of people living in drought-affected areas are estimated to have access to essential health care. Reported cholera cases continue to rise compared to recent years, and measles cases have spiked.

Somalia

Gaalkacyo, Mudug Region, Somalia

Women fetch water at a water trucking point in Kureyson village.

UN/Fardosa Hussein

The formation of a new Government and the peaceful transition of presidential power in May 2022 brought limited political stability. However, the security situation in Somalia remains extremely volatile. In addition to ongoing political and interclan tensions, the renewed intensification of military operations against Al Shabaab are likely to lead to increased displacement and impede humanitarian access. Overall, it is expected that up to 450.000 additional civilians will be displaced due to conflict in 2023. Protection concerns include widespread forced family separation, indiscriminate attacks against civilians, freedom of movement restrictions, forced recruitment and destruction of civilian infrastructure.

The drought, coupled with armed conflict, is having devastating consequences for women and children, who comprise more than 80 per cent of the displaced population. Women and girls are being forced to trek long distances to access water and shelter, which makes them more vulnerable to gender-based violence. There are also more unaccompanied and separated children in displacement sites compared to the same period last year. The drought has disrupted education for 2.4 million school-aged children. Experience from past droughts indicates that 90 per cent of children who lost access to education never returned.

Response priorities in 2023

Despite operational and access challenges, humanitarian partners reached some 7.3 million people with humanitarian assistance in 2022, which is 140 per cent more than the 3 million people reached in 2021.

Humanitarian needs continue to grow, with primary concerns around rising food insecurity and malnutrition, lack of access to water and basic sanitation, and the fragile health system’s capacity to manage disease burden. The overall response priority is to reduce excess mortality and avert famine through an integrated response. During 2023, more than 300 humanitarian partners will prioritize life-saving assistance for 7.6 million of the most vulnerable people by decreasing the prevalence of hunger, acute malnutrition, disease outbreaks and exposure to protection risks.

Through the Somalia integrated response framework, the humanitarian partners will continue to prioritize the most vulnerable populations, including those with minority clan affiliation, marginalized groups, and those residing in rural areas or areas with high access constraints.

South Sudan

People in Need at launch (Dec. 2022)
9.4 million
People Targeted at launch (Dec. 2022)
6.8 million
Requirements (US$) at launch (Dec. 2022)
1.7 billion
Total Population
12.4 million
Income level
Low income
INFORM Severity Index
8.5 / Very High
Consecutive appeals
2011 - 2023

Analysis of the context, crisis and needs

People in South Sudan continue to face multiple compounding shocks of surging subnational violence, severe multi-year flooding and macroeconomic shocks, resulting in worsening levels of acute food insecurity, disease outbreaks, threats against and attacks on humanitarian assets, and deaths of humanitarian workers in several locations.

The slow implementation of the key components of the 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan resulted in the extension of the current transitional period for another 24 months to ensure a conducive environment for credible elections in 2025.

An estimated 4.5 million South Sudanese people remain displaced due to conflict, insecurity and climate shocks. An estimated 2.2 million people are internally displaced, more than 58 per cent of whom arrived in their current location in 2020 and 2021. Increasing incidents of subnational violence during 2022 resulted in new or secondary displacements of more than 257,000 people, mainly in Jonglei, Upper Nile and Unity States. In addition, as of October, more than 151,000 South Sudanese refugees returned, predominantly from Sudan and Uganda, between January and October 2022. More than 371,200 internally displaced persons (IDPs) returned to their areas of origin or habitual residence in 2021, and some more than 12,500 people returned in 2022. Killings of civilians, including men, women and children, as well as abductions and conflict-related sexual violence allegedly perpetrated by armed groups, have been reported across the country. Above-normal rainfall for the fourth consecutive year in 2022 has led to more than a million people being verified as affected by floods in 36 counties in South Sudan, and over 20,000 people affected in the southern part of the Abyei Administrative Area since July 2022. Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Warrap, Unity and Western Equatoria States are the worst affected, with water levels in some areas, such as Bentiu and Upper Nile, exceeding the unprecedented levels reached in 2021. Torrential rain and floods destroyed crops, homes, latrines, boreholes and critical infrastructure, such as roads, bridges, schools, and nutrition and health-care centres.

South Sudan

Panyikang County, South Sudan

Heavy fighting forced vulnerable people, predominantly women and children, to flee to neighbouring counties, leaving their belongings behind.

OCHA/ Krasimira Antimova

An estimated 8 million people are likely to experience severe food insecurity at the peak of the 2023 lean season (April to July) at similar levels as last year. Displaced people are more likely to be severely food insecure (Integrated food security phase classification [IPC] Phase 3 or above), with 61.1 per cent of all IDPs being severely food insecure. Host communities are projected to be the most food insecure in Eastern Equatoria, Jonglei, Northern Bahr el Ghazal and Upper Nile States. Almost two thirds of all children under age 5 are expected to be acutely malnourished. Only 11 per cent of facilities provide the full Basic Package of Health and Nutrition Services, and 46 per cent are moderately functional, exacerbating the already inadequate access to and availability of some health services in many parts of the country. Outbreaks of measles, cholera and Hepatitis E have been declared in South Sudan in 2022, affecting mostly children under age 5. Low health-care quality, high levels of food insecurity and poor access to WASH services — with some 90 per cent of the population in 56 counties lacking access to improved sanitation, and some 42 per cent lacking access to improved water sources — have a detrimental impact on the health of the most vulnerable people. Children under age 5 are the most affected. Flooding has interrupted the education of an estimated 381,000 children in six states.

South Sudan

Panyagor, South Sudan

A mother and daughter look out over submerged houses in Panyagor in Twic East, Jonglei State.

UNICEF/Mark Naftalin

Projected situation in 2023 and beyond

An estimated 9.4 million people — or 76 per cent of the population — and 212,000 people in the Abyei Administrative Area will require humanitarian assistance in 2023. Their situation is expected to continue to deteriorate in 2023, with humanitarian needs likely to increase. The impact of climate change is a major driver of need in South Sudan, with large parts of the Sudd areas in Jonglei and Unity States vulnerable to flooding. Cases of malnutrition, waterborne diseases and malaria will increase, partly due to poor living conditions for people in flooded areas, especially those living in displacement, combined with poor access to health care due to physical, security and financial constraints, as well as the lack of governance and investment in public services. Some people will remain in prolonged displacement until their areas of origin are accessible. Due to poor infrastructure, physical access will continue to be limited in 2023.

Conflict will remain one of the main drivers of displacement and humanitarian needs in 2023. The risk of violence, such as the recent clashes in Upper Nile and Warrap States, continues to be very high and may increase in the lead-up to the General Elections in December 2024. South Sudan has witnessed widespread communal and localized violence linked to national-level power plays, which has damaged infrastructure, disrupted livelihoods and obstructed the State’s ability to provide essential services, such as in health and education. The circulation of illicit small arms and light weapons as well as mine contamination and explosive remnants of war, especially in the Equatoria Region, contribute to the level of violence. Ongoing armed conflict has contributed to increased levels of conflict-related sexual violence. South Sudanese women and girls are likely to continue facing such violence, but while having limited access to health services and justice mechanisms.

South Sudan

Wathmuok, South Sudan

Ajok Angara has benefited from the seeds she received from Welthungerhilfe. She now has a flourishing kitchen garden.

Welthungerhilfe/Peter Caton

Response priorities in 2023

Despite the ongoing conflict, access challenges and limited humanitarian funding in 2022 (the 2022-2023 South Sudan Humanitarian Response Plan [HRP] is 47 per cent funded), humanitarian partners delivered assistance to some 4 million people (64 per cent of those targeted in South Sudan). In 2023, the HRP will aim to respond to the most immediate needs of 6.8 million people (72 per cent of the PiN). The two-year 2022-2023 HRP will continue to target 6.8 million people with life-saving assistance to improve their physical and mental well-being, prevent further deterioration of the food security situation, and improve food consumption, dietary diversity and coping strategies for the vulnerable populations in the IPC/intersectoral severity needs levels 5 and 4, and some in level 3. Partners will work to reduce the protection threats and incidents for 4.4 million vulnerable people, ensuring safe, tailored, timely and dignified access to basic services through integrated and inclusive humanitarian action that promotes centrality of protection priorities. Humanitarians will support 3.4 million IDPs, returnees and vulnerable host communities towards self-sustainability, build their resilience to overcome shocks and seek solutions that respect their rights. The multi-year plan will capitalize on the humanitarian-development-peace collaboration efforts in the country, with disaster risk reduction and mitigation measures integrated into programming.

Sudan

People in Need at launch (Dec. 2022)
15.8 million
People Targeted at launch (Dec. 2022)
12.5 million
Requirements (US$) at launch (Dec. 2022)
1.7 billion
Total Population
49 million
Income level
Low income
INFORM Severity Index
7.1 / Very High
Consecutive appeals
1993 - 2023

Analysis of the context, crisis, and needs

The military coup on 25 October 2021 has reversed the achievements on a path to democratic transition and put Sudan on a precarious track. Efforts to resolve the political crisis are yet to yield tangible results. International development support has been significantly reduced, limiting the capacity of Government institutions and development partners to provide basic social services. Consequently, communities’ resilience has been undermined, pushing more people into a state of humanitarian vulnerability. In the past few years, the economy has fluctuated between deep contraction and stagnation, with economic growth rates too modest to have a real impact.

The protracted crises continue to aggravate the hardship experienced by resident communities, and people affected by conflict and displacement. 2022 has witnessed an increase in the number and intensity of violent incidents throughout the country, with Darfur and the Two Areas becoming increasingly prone to conflict. As of the end of October this year, 265,000 people were displaced due to conflict. A total of 3.7 million people are internally displaced (according to the latest tracking from December 2021 – January 2022). With 926,000 refugees, most of whom are from South Sudan, Sudan is one of the top 10 refugee-hosting countries. Meanwhile, humanitarian access is becoming progressively more challenging due to a combination of lack of physical access due to floods and poor infrastructure, and bureaucratic- and security-related impediments.

Sudan

North Darfur, Sudan

Health workers conduct door-to-door nutrition screenings for children in Abushock IDP camp.

UNICEF/Mustafa Abdalrasol

Sudan continues to witness outbreaks of endemic waterborne and vector borne diseases. In 2022, floods and heavy rain affected more than 348,000 people across the country. The number of acutely food insecure people continued to increase for the third consecutive year, reaching a record 11.7 million people. This was further exacerbated by the conflict in Ukraine, as Sudan relies on wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine. The reported malaria cases in September 2022 crossed the epidemic threshold in 14 states, with a more-than twofold increase compared to last year. A total of 185 suspected cases of monkeypox were reported by 15 October in 12 states, and 18 cases were confirmed, including the death of a 27-day-old baby in West Darfur.

Projected situation in 2023 and beyond

About 15.8 million people — a third of the population — will require humanitarian assistance across Sudan in 2023. The estimated need was informed by a nationwide multisectoral needs assessment of more than 21,000 households – 6,850 more than in 2021 – from the refugee, displaced, returnee and non-displaced communities across Sudan. This is an increase of 1.5 million households compared to 2022 and the highest since 2011. Vulnerable residents are the largest population group — some 11.4 million people — accounting for 72 per cent of the overall number. There are also 2.5 million IDPs, 0.9 million refugees and 0.9 million returnees.

For 2023, the four most significant risks identified were conflict, disasters associated with natural hazards, disease outbreaks and economic deterioration. The crises’ drivers and underlying root causes will continue to generate new and more severe humanitarian needs, while rendering vulnerable communities less resilient. Forced displacements and violence are likely to increase in 2023. Over the next few years, extreme climate events, such as floods and droughts, are expected to increase in frequency and severity and reoccur in areas that already faced similar shocks over the past years. The most vulnerable people will be unable to meet their basic needs, as commodity prices and costs for essential services continue to rise. Disease outbreaks, such as malaria, are expected to be an acute and widespread risk for pregnant women. Those outbreaks will continue to create additional health needs, stretching the capacity of the available health-care system.

A new approach is needed in Sudan to address these recurrent, protracted and growing multidimensional needs, and to ensure greater aid effectiveness. This will be done by enabling efficiency in the response through synergies across the different aid streams and a greater emphasis on resilience-based activities to address humanitarian needs.

Sudan

South Darfur, Sudan

Collapsed houses and destroyed crops following heavy rains and floods in Kalma IDP camp.

UNICEF/Ahmed Amin Ahmed Mohamed Osman

Response priorities in 2023

Considering the needs are multisectoral across Sudan, localities (second administrative level and affected population categories therein) with the highest intersectoral levels of severity are estimated as people in need. Within these categories, clusters target the most vulnerable people in need, with gender sensitivity, to the maximum of a cluster’s collective capacity to deliver, and considering the humanitarian access constraints. The prioritization of the most critical interventions further refines the planned response, taking full advantage of the cluster’s detailed activity-level planning.

To focus interventions on more intersectoral planning, the 2023 Humanitarian Response Plan will aim to respond to the most immediate needs of 12.5 million people. It will primarily focus on multisectoral life-saving assistance with an emphasis on the most acute humanitarian needs and people in the most life-threatening situations. It will also describe and cost the essential interventions that build the resilience of people in need to reduce their vulnerability and to ultimately reduce the number of people in need year on year.

The response aims to operationalize the centrality of protection across the humanitarian response through protection mainstreaming and accountability to affected populations.

In 2023, US$1.7 billion is required to support the core humanitarian response as part of a package of interventions that aim to support an effective combination of immediate humanitarian response and resilience-enabling activities towards reducing humanitarian needs over time, building synergies with complementary sustainable development activities in Sudan.

References

  1. ISTEBU, Enquête intégrée sur les conditions de vie des ménages, 2019-2020.
  2. OR #127 Caracterização das condições socioeconómicas dos deslocados internos no norte de Moçambique ao longo do ano de 2021 (English version available). – OMR (omrmz.org)
  3. IOM DTM South Sudan
  4. IOM DTM Event Tracking: Displacement and Return
  5. This is a provisional financial estimate