Ukraine (RRP)

Regional Overview

The war in Ukraine has been the fastest growing and largest displacement crisis in Europe since World War II and has precipitated a regional refugee response of commensurate scale. In the near t o ears since the Russian Federation’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the flow of refugees into neighbouring countries, and beyond, has been met by a remarkable mobilization of assistance – by national and municipal authorities, civil society actors, local volunteers, and refugees themselves, all contributing to ensure protection and meet the essential needs of those fleeing violence.

As the refugee response enters its third year in 2024, it continues to address significant needs in host countries, demonstrating an evolving and prolonged situation. Notably, this iteration of the plan reflects the increasing response ownership and greater investment by host governments in the socio-economic inclusion of refugees. The 2024 RRP focuses on practical and specialized support from RRP partners to host countries to ensure refugees have effective access to legal status and rights; that refugees with specific needs and vulnerabilities receive targeted assistance; that refugees’ se f-reliance and socio-economic inclusion are enhanced; and that social cohesion between refugee and host communities is fostered. The RRP complements and aligns with the national strategies and assistance schemes of host governments – who are in the lead of the response – and is grounded in the principles of partnership governing humanitarian action. These principles include equality, transparency, a results-oriented approach, responsibility, and complementarity.

Situation Overview

As the war in Ukraine continues unabated, 3.7 million people are displaced internally9 and 6.3 million abroad. As of the end of December 2023, 5.9 million refugees from Ukraine were recorded across Europe, close to 2 million of whom are in the countries covered by the RRP: Belarus10, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, the Republic of Moldova, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.11 The application of the Temporary Protection Directive (TPD) in the European Union (EU), recently extended until March 2025, and the Republic of Moldova’s Temporary Protection regime, which came into effect in March 2023, have provided favourable frameworks to ensure protection and access to rights and services in host countries for refugees from Ukraine. Challenges remain, with differing approaches to the implementation of temporary protection, which can have a disproportionate impact on the most vulnerable groups and their ability to access their rights. Over the course of 2024, governments will be discussing and preparing for the transition beyond the TPD regime.

Relatedly, temporary movements back to Ukraine are increasingly observed, with data from HCR’s intentions survey showing a rise from 17 per cent in August 2022 to 39 per cent in May 2023 in the proportion of refugees who have visited Ukraine at least once since their arrival in host countries, primarily to check on family and property or obtain documentation.12 These visits are important for refugees’ longer-term decisions about more durable return once conditions permit.

However, varying approaches of host governments toward the impact of short-term travel to Ukraine on refugees’ legal status and access to rights has led to the revocation of legal status and suspension of associated benefits for some, as well as challenges with efforts to re-instate legal status upon return to host countries. For others, this has also discouraged engaging in these important visits.

Barring unforeseen circumstances, newly displaced refugee movements into neighbouring countries and beyond are expected to significantly decrease as compared to the first years of the response. This entails a smaller, yet still substantial, group of refugees arriving in, or moving through, RRP countries who will need initial reception assistance.

Among refugees present in host countries, intentions surveys indicate that while most hope to return to Ukraine one day, only 14 per cent plan to do so in the near future, primarily due to concerns about safety and security, the availability of suitable jobs, access to basic services, education, and housing in Ukraine. The majority of refugees plan to remain in their current host country, where they require continued support from host governments and the international community to meet their basic needs, access key services and build their self-reliance and meaningful inclusion in host communities. Some 81 per cent of refugees from Ukraine in RRP countries indicate at least one urgent unmet need, including access to food, employment, healthcare, accommodation, or material assistance, while nearly a quarter of refugee households indicate having at least one member with a specific vulnerability.13

Challenges accessing decent work, receiving healthcare and social services and securing sustainable housing solutions persist for many due to often interconnected challenges such as language barriers, limited information, financial constraints, job-matching difficulties, lack of childcare and overstretched local resources.

There is a significant number of refugee children, including unaccompanied, separated and children from institutions, who often face challenges accessing national child protection systems and benefitting from respective protection services. This, in turn, may result in gaps accessing their rights in the countries of asylum, as the displacement is becoming protracted.

Moreover, roughly half of school-age refugee children and youth from Ukraine were enrolled in schools in host countries at the start of the 2023-2024 school year. In addition, some 44 percent of households with school-aged children report at least one child still not registered in the education system of the host country.

Population Planning Figures

The RRP planning figures reflect the projected population that will require assistance in 2024. They have been developed in consultation with country inter-agency refugee coordination forums and government counterparts. The population planning figures include refugees from Ukraine, as well as third-country nationals who fled Ukraine and are in need of international protection and people who are stateless or at risk of statelessness (e.g. the Roma population). The planning figures assume that all refugees and asylum-seekers benefit from protection services and/or humanitarian assistance.

The host community population in the Republic of Moldova prioritized for assistance includes those who are affected by refugee arrivals, for example due to their location, and who will benefit from initiatives that aid refugees as well as host communities. Within the EU, the RRP does not include host community members as individuals targeted for assistance. The plan addresses the needs of impacted host populations at the community level, with an eye to expanding community resources and services that may be under strain due to the presence of the refugee population.
The 2024 population planning figures reflect a reduction from 2023 as some refugees and others in need of international protection in RRP countries have moved outside the geographic scope of the RRP and the remaining population is projected to be more stable in number, with fewer new arrivals and newly displaced persons in transit. Additionally, the refugee population figures for most RRP countries were revised downward in 2023 based on temporary protection validation exercises conducted by governments.