Sudan

Defining the crisis: shocks, impacts and people affected

The 2025 HNRP is underpinned by a joint analysis of humanitarian needs in Sudan based on three key shocks: conflict, floods, and disease outbreaks, and their impact on the population and essential services. The analysis encompasses the entire country, recognizing the widespread impact of these three identified shocks affecting a significant portion of the population in Sudan, although the severity of impact varies across different geographic areas. While the entire country is grappling with the consequences of these shocks, specific geographic areas, such as North Darfur, Aj Jazirah, Sennar, and West Kordofan, have experienced heightened levels of displacement and humanitarian needs. In addition to geographic factors, certain population groups are particularly vulnerable. These include internally displaced persons (IDPs), refugees, women, children, older people and individuals with disabilities.

People in Need and Severity of Needs

The 2025 HNRP scope will focus on four population groups: IDPs, host communities, non-hosting and refugees’ populations at the locality level (administrative level 2) across all Sudan. This focus is based on an analysis of the impacts of conflict, floods, and disease outbreaks. The joint and inter-cluster analysis underpinning the assessment of humanitarian needs in Sudan was conducted geographically at the locality level, covering 188 localities across the country, excluding the Abyei area¹.

Sudan's humanitarian crisis deteriorated, with the population in need of humanitarian assistance and protection dramatically increasing. Throughout 2024, Sudan experienced famine conditions, relentless flooding ², ³and continuing conflict with limited humanitarian access in areas of hostilities. These compounding factors have rendered an estimated 30.4 million people, a staggering 64 per cent of the total 47.5 million population, in need of humanitarian assistance. This number marks a significant 23 per cent increase, compared to the 24.8 million people estimated to be in need in the 2024 HNRP. The escalating conflict and limited humanitarian access and capacity are key factors driving this dramatic deterioration of the situation.

A staggering 2.3 million people across 9 localities⁴, primarily in Darfur and Kordofan, are facing a catastrophic level of humanitarian need. The crisis is further exacerbated by the alarming rise in severe and extreme needs. Forty-five localities are teetering on the brink of catastrophe due to high malnutrition rates, the threat of famine, cholera outbreak, and systematic violations of Human Rights and International Humanitarian Law at a horrifying magnitude⁵. Forty-four of the 45 localities have escalated from severe in 2024 to extreme need, affecting an additional 6.5 million people. This alarming escalation underscores the deepening crisis in Sudan.

Of the 30.4 million people in need (PiN), 14.3 million (47 per cent) are non-hosting populations, 8.9 million (29 per cent) are IDPs, 6.4 million (21 per cent) are host communities and 0.89 million (3 per cent) are refugees. Notably, children and women constitute a significant portion of the affected population – 51 per cent are children and 50 per cent are women and girls – while people with disabilities are estimated to comprise 15 per cent⁶ of PiN - equivalent to 4.7 million.

The most critical areas of need are concentrated in South Darfur, Aj Jazirah, Khartoum, and North Darfur, where a combined 11.4 million people (38 per cent of the total PiN) require urgent assistance. The Darfur region faces a particularly dire humanitarian crisis, with 79 per cent of its population in need of humanitarian assistance and protection. Kordofan follows closely with 61 per cent of the population in need, while Khartoum stands at 48 per cent.

Significant increases of the PiN were observed in North Kordofan (96 per cent), Aj Jazirah (93 per cent), West Kordofan (85 per cent), Gederef (80 per cent), Sennar and Red Sea (74 per cent), and East Darfur (56 per cent). These increases reflect heightened humanitarian needs due to new displacements, limited humanitarian access, and ongoing conflict. Conversely, decreases were recorded in West Darfur, Central Darfur and South Kordofan, regions bordering Chad and South Sudan, which have historically served as sources of refugees and asylum seekers.

A critical intersection of high PiN and severe humanitarian needs is evident in Aj Jazirah, Khartoum State, and the Darfur and Kordofan regions. These areas face particularly acute humanitarian challenges, driven by the ongoing conflict and displacement. Meanwhile, localities like Sennar, Shendi, and Medinat Kassala exhibit high PiN levels primarily due to the influx of IDPs from neighbouring states. However, the ongoing humanitarian response has somewhat mitigated the severity of the situation in these areas.

Food Security, WASH, Health and Protection are among the top needs in the largest number of areas with high PiN and high severity. While PiN for acute malnutrition is lower in absolute numbers as the interventions specifically target children under the age of five years and pregnant and breastfeeding women, it is widely prevalent at emergency and catastrophic levels in Sudan, putting children’s lives at risk. This suggests a critical need for an integrated package of assistance in these sectors to address the most pressing humanitarian needs and have a major impact.

Critical protection concerns and access to food and basic services primarily drive the intersectoral severity of needs. These include direct and continued attacks on civilians as well as vital civilian infrastructure, such as hospitals and schools⁷. Such breaches pose direct threats to life, severely hinder people’s access to basic services essential for survival and compromise their freedom of movement. Women and girls increasingly face a persistent and growing risk of GBV, including sexual violence, gang rape, abduction and enslavement allegedly committed by the warring parties⁸.

Displacement remains a major driver of need and vulnerability in Sudan. The influx of displaced populations, coupled with the absence of critical services in displacement locations, has significantly exacerbated the humanitarian crisis. There is an increased trend in secondary displacements and tertiary displacements⁹ across the country, further disrupting the lives of displaced populations and driving needs. Moreover, the responsibility of hosting IDPs by families and within communities has led to a significant increase in the needs of non-displaced and hosting populations and pressure on the already limited basic services.

The economic downturn and inflationary measures are aggravating the situation. Long queues in commercial banks are a common sight in most parts of the country. In addition, the exchange rate reform has created a parallel forex market thus limiting access to much needed liquidity to import basic food items. In 2024, Sudan recorded a 50 per cent reduction in employment and business opportunities in urban areas¹⁰, and the average prices of basic food items have also exponentially increased. In April 2024, the price of wheat was twice that of the previous year and about five times the three-year average¹¹.

Massive floods and outbreaks of cholera¹² and other communicable diseases further exacerbated the humanitarian situation. This was further worsened by limited and inadequate health services to manage cholera and other communicable diseases, such as malaria and dengue fever¹³. Many of the fatalities due to cholera are among displaced and refugee children under five years of age¹⁴.

Detailed data (structured around the questions on “characteristics of needs” of the Joint and Intersectoral Analysis Framework (JIAF) 2.0) is available at the JIAF dashboard.

Cluster methodologies and indicators used in the needs analysis are available here

Humanitarian outlook and risks

Sudan ranks 8th in the world in terms of humanitarian severity, according to the INFORM risk index in 2025. Its “very high” risk classification is driven by high scores against multiple key indicators, including projected conflict risk, current highly violent conflict intensity, vulnerability, and developmental deprivation, among other factors.

The 2025 risk analysis for Sudan, which assessed hazards and their potential impacts on people, infrastructure, and the environment, identified several high-probability risks. These include the ongoing escalation of political conflict, which is likely to affect the entire country, with continued violence against civilians and large-scale displacement. Active hostilities are anticipated to affect multiple states throughout 2025, exacerbated by a heightened risk of communal and ethnic violence. Additional risks include potential economic deterioration and accelerating inflation, significantly reduced harvests for 2024/2025, as well as the risk of floods and the spread of waterborne and vector-borne diseases¹⁵.

The evolution of the crisis remains highly unpredictable in 2025 with critical humanitarian implications, according to the Sudan Crisis Risk Analysis for 2025. Sudan's conflict is likely to persist, with risk of competition for the control of strategic regions, like Khartoum, Sennar and West Kordofan, at risk of aggravating further. The limited progress in mediation efforts and the imposition of international sanctions could further escalate tensions, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis and continuing mass displacement. The situation remains highly volatile, with limited prospects for a political solution in the near future. Fighting is expected to persist in Khartoum, Kordofan, Darfur (particularly in Al Fasher in North Darfur), Sennar, White Nile, and Aj Jazirah states.

The ongoing conflict has further complicated pre-existing ethnic tensions, exacerbating communal disputes and divisions. In particular, inter-communal tensions in Greater Darfur remain a significant concern and are likely to persist, even if the broader conflict comes to an end.

In addition to the challenges of ongoing conflict and an unprecedented scale of humanitarian needs and access impediments, some of the underlying risks driven by economic crisis and climate change could further aggravate the situation. The risk of partial economic collapse and accelerating inflation are highly likely, with a potential for severe impact. The conflict has delivered a crippling blow to Sudan's fragile economy. Following an estimated 18 per cent economic contraction in 2023, Sudan’s GDP is expected to fall a further 5.9 per cent in 2024¹⁶and ¹⁷. With no end to the conflict in sight, the economy is expected to continue a downward trajectory resulting in a devastating impact on household purchasing power.

Sudan's vulnerability to climate change is also concerning, ranking among the world's ten most at-risk nations¹⁸. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) creates irregular periodic variation in the temperature as well as sea surface temperature, thus influencing year-to-year variability and extreme weather events. In 2020, Sudan witnessed its most severe flooding in a century, affecting over 800,000 individuals, and in 2022, more than 349,000 people were affected¹⁹. By November 2024, the number of people affected by flooding has reached over 685,000²⁰, with heavier than normal rains driven by El Niño-related weather phenomenon. For 2025, more accurate estimates of climate variance will only be possible at the start of the year.

Without a significant shift in the current trajectory, Sudan's humanitarian situation is projected to further deteriorate in 2025. The ongoing conflict, characterized by intense fighting in key areas, like Khartoum, Kordofan, Darfur, Sennar, White Nile, and Aj Jazirah, will likely exacerbate the humanitarian crisis. Increased displacement, limited humanitarian access, and a rise in inter-communal violence are expected to further strain resources and services. Urgent and sustained humanitarian intervention will be essential to mitigate the suffering of millions of people in Sudan.