Afghanistan

Cross-border movements

Political dynamics in neighbouring Pakistan and Iran continue to present a heightened risk of a renewed returnee crisis for Afghanistan. Following the sharp increase in people returning from Pakistan in late 2023 to early 2024, inflows from Pakistan have now stabilized to pre-crisis levels, averaging around 100,000 people per month between January and October. In mid-2024, however, the Pakistani government announced plans to resume the repatriation of documented Afghans, although specifics on the timing remain unclear.

In Iran, announcements from authorities made in September and October 2024 regarding the planned deportation of two million undocumented Afghans have been influenced by public discourse attributing economic challenges to Afghan migrants.² These efforts led to a temporary uptick in returnees from Iran, peaking at over 255,000 people in September and dropping to 219,000 in October. Despite this, outflows to Iran have remained steady, with over 100,000 Afghans leaving in September and 110,000 in October to Iran, highlighting the cyclical pattern of movement between the two countries.³

Protection crisis

The protection situation in Afghanistan remains precarious, shaped by four decades of armed conflict and compounded by severe economic hardship, governance challenges, social marginalization and discriminatory norms and legislation. In addition, the country has witnessed large-scale, institutional and systemic gender-based discrimination and violence against women and girls, with deep-rooted cultural norms and practices that continue to exclude women and girls from the social, economic and political spheres across the country. These factors limit access to essential services, particularly for marginalized groups and vulnerable communities, with women, children, young people, persons with disabilities and ethnic and religious minorities facing elevated risks of exploitation, gender-based violence and restricted access to essential health services, education and justice. Economic strain has led to an increase in child labour, and early or forced child marriage, while displaced populations, including returnees and IDPs, often lack adequate shelter, livelihoods and social support. Reintegration challenges for returnees and strained social cohesion in host communities further intensify protection risks, creating a complex environment where targeted assistance is essential to safeguard vulnerable populations and uphold basic rights.⁴

Decades of conflict have also left Afghanistan with one of the highest levels of EO contamination worldwide, including landmines, explosive remnants of war (ERW) and improvised explosive devices. Afghanistan faces over 1,200 km² of known contamination, affecting nearly 300 districts, over 1,700 communities, and almost 3.5 million people living within 1 km of identified contaminated areas. Children in particular face significant risks due to their curiosity and limited awareness of these dangers. Poverty has driven many children into hazardous work, including scrap metal collection, which further exposes them to EO risks.

Gender crisis

The humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan is happening against a backdrop of a series of increasingly restrictive policies which have negatively affected the human rights of women and girls. Women in Afghanistan not only face stringent movement restrictions which limits access to essential services, but their needs also often go unmet due to systemic barriers, deep-rooted cultural norms and practices that impact their participation in public life.

In August 2024, the DfA introduced the PVPV law which codified many pre-existing restrictions that had already been issued as decrees, edicts and instructions, such as the requirement for women to wear a hijab and cover their faces outside the home. It also broadened pre-existing restrictions, including the requirement for women to be accompanied by a mahram when traveling, and that women should conceal their voice, face, and body. The law further curtails the already limited rights of women and girls to freedom of movement, expression, and participation in both daily and public life, significantly affecting their involvement in the humanitarian response and women’s access to assistance and services. DfA policies also continue to marginalize women and girls' participation in education, exemplified by the ongoing ban on female secondary school attendance and the recent restriction imposed by the Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) in December 2024, barring women and girls from attending medical institutions. In addition, women-led organizations (WLOs) continued to face major administrative and legal impediments, further restricting access of women gender and women related services as well as to essential services as women and girls can often only receive assistance from other women.

Economic stagnation and lack of basic human needs services

Afghanistan’s economy has significantly contracted since the fall of the Republic in 2021 but began showing signs of recovery in 2023. Over the past year, banking operations have gradually resumed as regional banks have shown greater willingness to support Afghanistan-related transactions, more businesses are functioning and household welfare has shown a slight improvement with a decline in the proportion reporting insufficient income to meet their basic needs, indicated by the decrease of households who report being unable to meet their basic needs which went down from 70 per cent (October to December 2021) to 62 per cent (April to June 2023).⁵ Nevertheless, Afghanistan remains largely isolated from the global economy with high levels of poverty, unemployment and underemployment expected to persist in 2025 and beyond, restricting access to goods and services. Between 400,000 to 500,000 Afghans are projected to enter the labour market each year in search of jobs – many more than the economy can absorb. As a result, the level of unemployment is worryingly high among youth and women. Among young men looking for a job between the age of 14 to 24, close to one in three is unemployed, while unemployment is almost twice as high among young women in the same age group. The gender gap in unemployment is more substantial among women in older age cohorts, reflecting the additional challenges that women face in the Afghan labor market.⁶ Against this backdrop, Afghanistan's economic outlook remains uncertain at best and disconcerting at worst. The absence of GDP growth, combined with dwindling external financing, political estrangement and significantly reduced bilateral and development cooperation, paints a bleak picture for the country’s economic prospects. Currently, the DfA has limited capacity to provide basic services and employment for its burgeoning population. This, in turn, impacts the humanitarian sector, where gaps in sustainable development, limited livelihood opportunities and weak healthcare and education systems, continue to create conditions for recurring humanitarian crises.⁷

People in need

In 2025, an estimated 22.9 million people in Afghanistan, including 5.7 million women and 5 million men, will require humanitarian assistance to survive – around half of the estimated 46 million population. The primary drivers of these needs are protection-related and include heightened risk of GBV, discrimination, and denial of access to services due to increased DfA restrictions on women and girls, as well as the ongoing ban on secondary education for girls, the threat of forced evictions, and exposure to EO contamination. Other drivers include inadequate water and sanitation conditions, high prevalence of food insecurity, malnutrition and maternal mortality, and over-stretched and under-resourced health systems. The chronic and structural deficits apparent in these latter sectors highlight the need for humanitarian assistance to be complemented with integrated, longer-term and more sustainable investments as an immediate priority. Without this, it will be very difficult if not impossible to break the cycle of humanitarian dependence for a significant proportion of the Afghan population.

Most affected groups and their humanitarian needs

Women, girls, including female-headed households

While overall needs in Afghanistan have decreased from the record-highs of 2023, gender-based violence (GBV) needs have risen – from 13.3 million people in 2024 to 14.2 million in 2025. Factors contributing to the increased need for GBV services include climate change, environmental challenges, and natural disasters, all of which have led to heightened displacement and, consequently, greater risks of GBV in the country. Additionally, restrictions imposed by the DfA on women's movement, combined with the PVPV policies, have confined many women to abusive home environments. The requirement for women to be accompanied by a mahram has further victimized some women. As such, women and girls have an even greater need for GBV prevention, mitigation and response activities.

Furthermore, female-headed households are facing increased and disproportionate economic hardship which increases their humanitarian needs. Findings from the WoAA reveal, for instance, that female-headed households’ income per household member fell by 40 per cent in 2024, from $26 (AFN 1,780) to $16 (AFN 1,062), compared to just 16 per cent in male-headed households.⁸ Economic vulnerabilities such as these, in turn, make them more likely to rely on emergency livelihood coping strategies (29 per cent compared to the 17 per cent average), face poorer shelter conditions, more frequent shortages of drinking water, and higher eviction risks due inadequate tenancy agreements compared to male-headed households.⁹ Economic hardship exacerbates the risk of families resorting to negative coping strategies that harm children, such as early marriage and child labor.¹⁰ Women and female-headed households face additional challenges due to DfA restrictions that limit their freedom of movement. These restrictions, combined with constraints placed on female humanitarian workers and women-led organizations, significantly hinder their ability and awareness to access essential humanitarian assistance.

Afghan returnees

The continuous influx of Afghans from Pakistan and Iran amplifies the need for assistance at border points and in areas of return, particularly given the substantial humanitarian and protection needs tied to displacement, economic challenges, and limited access to essential services. Returnees and deportees often face immediate challenges, including livelihood opportunities, shelter, and protection risks.

Employment opportunities are scarce, especially for those without the skills or resources to reintegrate into the local economy. According to post-returnee monitoring of individuals returning from Pakistan,¹¹ half of the respondents indicated a lack of technical skills, 67 per cent reported working as daily laborers, and 75 per cent stated they are currently in debt, with the debt amount increasing since their arrival. Among this group, 95 per cent reported that their debt exceeds their monthly income. Lack of shelter is a significant challenge for returnees, with nearly 62 per cent living in rented accommodations. Of these, 58 per cent said they are unable to afford the rent. Additionally, the absence of civil documentation is a widespread issue, with 75 per cent of respondents reporting at least one family member without an Afghan identity card. This lack of documentation restricts freedom of movement, limits access to basic services, and heightens protection risks, particularly for women and girls who face increased vulnerabilities, including GBV, when traveling without identification. It also poses substantial barriers to securing tenure and property rights.¹² These compounding challenges create significant stress for returnees, with 49 per cent of respondents reporting feeling overwhelmed due to these factors.

To support sustainable reintegration, returnees require both durable solutions and interventions that address basic human needs, promoting long-term stability and self-reliance, protection needs of persons with heightened risks. This includes livelihood programs that facilitate economic integration, education and vocational training, and legal assistance to secure land and property rights. Additionally, infrastructure development and improved access to public services are critical for returnees to establish stable livelihoods without continuous humanitarian aid. Humanitarian partners will continue collaborating with actors focused on durable solutions and basic human needs, while also engaging with local communities and authorities to foster social cohesion and strengthen resilience for both returnees and host communities.

Persons with disabilities

In Afghanistan, decades of conflict have led to high levels of injury, trauma and psychological distress. Factors like widespread explosive ordnance contamination, the spread of polio, limited access to prenatal and maternal care, and overall poor healthcare access likely contribute to a disability prevalence well above the global average of 16 per cent.

The WoAA¹³ underscores the significant socio- economic challenges faced by households headed by persons with disabilities. These households experience markedly higher rates of unemployment, with 10 per cent unemployed compared to 2 per cent nationally, and child labor, affecting 31 per cent of these households compared to 15 per cent nationally. They also report the highest average debt levels, amounting to $783 (AFN 52,498) compared to the national average of $558 (AFN 37,433). In terms of food security, 35 per cent of households headed by persons with disabilities report poor food consumption scores, and 41 per cent experience moderate hunger. Access to health services is notably limited, with 26 per cent facing unmet needs due to barriers such as restricted access linked to disability. Furthermore, these households have greater reliance on unimproved water and sanitation facilities and report higher rates of protection incidents, with 32 per cent affected compared to 22 per cent nationally.

Protection monitoring data¹⁴ consistently identifies persons with disabilities among the group facing the most challenges accessing basic services due to a variety of barriers, including limited accessibility of facilities and services points, as well as communication and attitudinal barriers, especially with respect to employment or education opportunities, effectively excluding persons with disabilities from participation in public life.

Assistance to persons with disabilities is significantly hindered by restrictions imposed on Organizations of Persons with Disabilities (OPDs) and overarching gaps in specialized services. These challenges are exacerbated by the absence of inclusive policies and laws, alongside systemic bottlenecks within the social welfare system. Among the key obstacles is the difficulty in obtaining a disability identification card, which is a prerequisite for accessing welfare support. These barriers not only limit access to essential services but also perpetuate inequalities, leaving persons with disabilities without the support they urgently need.

Rural households

Rural households in Afghanistan face significant vulnerabilities and humanitarian needs, driven by a combination of economic hardship, limited access to essential services, and environmental challenges. Many rural communities rely heavily on subsistence agriculture, leaving them highly susceptible to drought, floods, and other climate-related risks that threaten crop yields and livestock health. These households often lack access to healthcare, education, clean water, and sanitation facilities, heightening their risk of illness and malnutrition, especially among children, pregnant women, persons with disabilities and older persons. According to the WoAA,¹⁵ rural households are facing significant higher structural barriers, such as service unavailability, than urban households in accessing essential services, such as markets, water or healthcare services.

Economic opportunities are scarce in rural areas, with many households unable to generate sufficient income to meet basic needs or access essential goods, further straining food security and nutrition. Since 2023, the decrease in income has been greater in rural (-23 per cent) compared to urban (-3 per cent) areas.¹⁶ Seasonal challenges such as harsh winters and isolation due to road closures worsen these conditions, leaving families without adequate shelter, heating or food supplies. Rural households also experience limited protection resources, exposing women and children to heightened risks of exploitation and child labour, reflected in the higher percentage of rural households that report experiencing a protection incident (26 per cent compared to 15 per cent of urban households).

Affected communities’ priorities, preferences and capacities

According to the Community Perception Monitoring on System-Wide Accountability,¹⁷ as of June 2024, 41 per cent of 3,856 community members consulted reported that assistance received met their basic needs, an increase from 29 per cent compared to Q4 2023. This includes 16 per cent of communities who said assistance fully met their needs and 25 per cent who said it mostly met their needs.

For the 59 per cent of respondents who reported that assistance did not adequately meet their needs (49 per cent reported somewhat and 10 per cent reported not at all), the top reasons were that assistance was not enough (43 per cent), it was only delivered one time (34 per cent), or that it was not appropriate to their needs (13 per cent). During qualitative feedback, community members identified cash as the priority need while also emphasizing food, health, work opportunities, education, Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) and multi-sectoral assistance. The majority of respondents preferred to receive a combination of in-kind and cash assistance (56 per cent) or cash assistance alone (32 per cent).

Qualitative community feedback received highlighted community concerns regarding unequal aid distribution, the need for increased communication and information awareness and a desire for increased and continued assistance. Communities surveyed held perceptions that aid distribution practices were unfair and biased, with reports of aid being disproportionately allocated by community leaders to wealthier individuals and relatives. Communities requested that aid be distributed directly to people, rather than through community leaders and expressed a strong preference for house-to-house surveys to ensure accurate data collection and direct aid distribution to households in need. These complaints highlight the need for greater transparency, communication and accountability in needs assessments, allocation and aid distribution. Feedback also requested a desire for more information regarding aid processes and complaint mechanisms, particularly through awareness initiatives, highlighting the need for aid organizations to enhance their communication and direct engagement with affected communities.

Finally, requests for increasing and continued assistance, as opposed to one-off assistance, highlight communities’ desire for a shift to more resilience- building and early recovery interventions.