Boundary-setting
In a context like Afghanistan, where long-standing and deep-seated needs are the result of decades of conflict, natural disasters, under-development, economic stagnation, underlying food insecurity, and ongoing protection risks and concerns, it is crucial to closely examine the nature of the needs people are exhibiting. Not all of these needs are humanitarian in nature, a reality frequently reflected in the feedback from affected people. While they express gratitude for short- term humanitarian assistance, they also emphasize a preference for longer-term, sustainable interventions. Given the widespread scale and scope of needs present in Afghanistan today, humanitarian actors lack sufficient capacity, resources and even the mandate to address issues stemming from structural or systemic problems. Furthermore, in the event humanitarian actors attempt to do so, there is a risk that the most acute needs will be obscured and those most in need of humanitarian assistance get left behind.
Recognizing this, and in line with global guidance, the 2025 HNRP will focus on those in need of humanitarian assistance who have been affected by or are at risk of experiencing one of the identified shocks outlined in Chapter 1.2 ‘Analysis of shocks, risks, and humanitarian needs’. Among those affected by such shocks, prioritization will be based on vulnerability criteria to ensure that humanitarian assistance reaches those most in need. The methods for identifying who requires assistance due to shocks will vary based on the nature of the event (e.g. rapid needs assessments for those affected by sudden-onset emergencies such as floods, dry spell monitoring for drought-affected populations, or cross-border monitoring for returnees). However, in all cases, a shock will be understood as a distinct event that causes significant suffering and disruption in people’s lives.
Therefore, underlying needs generated by structural or systemic issues remain outside the scope of the humanitarian response, even though it is recognized that underlying vulnerabilities may exacerbate humanitarian need – and, by extension, the humanitarian caseload – following a shock. For example, a drought affecting an area where people are already struggling with limited access to potable water will likely result in a higher humanitarian caseload, compared to one occurring in an area with better water availability.
In line with this, the 2025 HNRP focuses on streamlining activities by prioritizing core humanitarian interventions and strengthening complementarity and collaboration between humanitarian and BHN actors. A joint planning workshop, organized in collaboration with the Programme Management Team and the Durable Solutions Working Group, aimed to foster a shared understanding of the relationship between humanitarian and BHN response activities. The workshop also explored how the scale-up of BHN interventions impacts humanitarian programming, sought to enhance alignment and synergy between the HNRP and the United Nations Strategic Framework for Afghanistan, minimize duplication of efforts and prevent agencies and organizations from drawing resources from both frameworks simultaneously.
Prioritization of districts
In 2025, the Inter-Cluster Coordination Team (ICCT) will continue prioritizing the delivery of humanitarian assistance to areas with the highest severity of need. Through an iterative process, districts were prioritized following the Joint Intersectoral Analysis Framework (JIAF). Clusters first conducted sectoral needs and severity analyses, which were then followed by joint analyses to identify districts with the highest intersectoral needs across Afghanistan. Further prioritization was conducted in light of the results of the 2024 mid-year response and funding gaps analysis, through which the ICCT had critically examined past cluster reach and the consequences of funding shortfalls. Based on the highest severity of needs and caseloads across all sectors, 147 out of Afghanistan’s 401 districts were designated as priority areas. This focused approach aims to enable more efficient resource allocation, prevent the response from being spread too thin across Afghanistan in the event of funding shortfalls, and ensure that people in these districts receive comprehensive intersectoral support rather than interventions from only one or a few clusters. In short, it aims to enable more impactful humanitarian response.
Risk-informed anticipatory action
Building on the relative stability following the end of the conflict and recognizing that Afghanistan remains among the world’s most vulnerable countries to climate change, humanitarian partners with expertise in drought response and anticipatory action will collaborate to prepare a coordinated anticipatory action framework for drought in Afghanistan. This initiative is particularly pertinent given the increased likelihood of La Niña-related dry spells in 2025.
Focus on potential dry spells affecting spring cultivation in rain-fed agricultural areas
Acknowledging that different hazards require distinct anticipatory action frameworks with tailored forecast and trigger models, the decision was made to initially focus on droughts. Droughts in Afghanistan are generally more predictable than other natural disasters and the potential for another La Niña episode poses a heightened risk. La Niña conditions could lead to warmer weather and reduced precipitation, particularly in areas already suffering from consecutive drought impacts since 2020. These conditions threaten spring wheat cultivation in rain-fed agricultural areas, which could have severe humanitarian consequences on agriculture, livelihoods, water availability, food security, protection and gender dynamics and health.
The areas potentially affected by La Niña-related drought in Afghanistan historically affect several provinces across the southern, western, northern and northeastern regions. To refine the geographic scope, the analysis prioritized rain-fed agricultural areas, which are more vulnerable to drought than irrigated agriculture; historical precipitation anomalies, especially during the triple-dip La Niña years (2020– 2023); and underlying vulnerabilities, such as high levels of food insecurity and operational constraints and partner capacity. Based on this analysis, the initial framework will focus on Faryab, Sar-e-Pul and Takhar provinces. This selection represents high-risk areas for dry spells while remaining operationally feasible and considering the resources made available. Should additional resources be made available, the coordinated anticipatory action framework can be expanded to include additional provinces in future agricultural seasons, ensuring broader coverage and improved resilience against climate risks in Afghanistan.
Anticipatory action window 1: possible agriculture/food security, livelihoods and WASH activities
Lead time: Starting in February
Implementation: Starting end of February/early March depending on intervention
- Early warning messaging and awareness raising
- Rehabilitation of water harvesting structures
- Installation/rehabilitation of water facilities (boreholes, water treatment)
- Distribution of WASH NFIs
- Distribution of animal feed, poultry and technical training
- Multi-purpose cash assistance
Anticipatory action window 2: possible protection and health activities
Lead time: Starting in April
Implementation: Starting end of May/early June depending on intervention
- Community engagement and awareness raising
- Cash for protection for most at-risk households
- Referrals of GBV survivors and vulnerable women and girls affected by the droughts to existing women safe spaces and other services
- Decentralized pre-positioning and distribution of dignity/menstrual hygiene/clean delivery/ neonetal kits
- Pre-positioning and distribution of health equipment and medical supplies
- Community sensitization on diseases with epidemic potential