Planning assumptions
The war in Ukraine, approaching the fourth year after the full-scale invasion, shows no sign of abating, and the current humanitarian situation is not expected to improve in 2025 due to continued hostilities. The destruction and socioeconomic challenges caused by the war will continue to exacerbate the already dire and fragile humanitarian situation and deepen the needs of vulnerable people, particularly people living in areas close to the front line, who will require sustained support.
The situation could further deteriorate if attacks continue systematically hitting energy infrastructure and damaging other systems providing essential services during the winter of 2024-2025. If the level of hostilities was to decrease, recovery from such massive destruction of infrastructure will take years, and humanitarian and protection needs, while evolving, will persist for years to come.
Based on this current context, the 2025 HNRP planning assumptions include the following parameters:
- The operational environment will remain dynamic and may change rapidly, generating humanitarian needs, displacement, relocations and returns, and driving the humanitarian response priorities. Sufficient and flexible funding will be required for partners to rapidly scale up and respond to the most pressing needs.
- It is further assumed that access to Russian-occupied territories will remain extremely restricted despite continued efforts to reach people in need in these areas.
- In case of systematic attacks on energy infrastructure, reduced access to electricity will heighten risks for vulnerable groups, threaten the continuity of essential services and exacerbate humanitarian needs. Pockets of displacement could also occur as temperatures might drop below -20 degrees Celsius.
- Operational capacity close to the front line may reduce from its current level, if volunteer support to people in need of assistance declines and financial contributions gradually decrease as the war continues.
- Possible changes in territorial control could make some areas accessible for humanitarian partners, enabling them to scale up rapidly to respond to the emerging needs, especially in the areas where the Government of Ukraine regains control.
Operational capacity
The humanitarian community in Ukraine has a well-established operational presence across the country, with a response capacity of 631 operational organizations as of October 2024.
A similar presence is expected to continue in 2025, with some 602 partners, subject to available funding and access. National partners (428), many of whom operate as first responders, will remain central in the response. In addition, 128 international NGO partners, 11 UN agencies and three partners from other international organizations, as well as private sector and community-based volunteer organizations who play a critical role in the last-mile delivery of assistance to people close to the front lines and the border with the Russian Federation, will complement the efforts of the Government in the response. National and local NGOs often benefit from pre-existing relationships with local communities, which can allow them to quickly identify gaps on the ground as well as deliver aid to hard-to-reach areas, often close to the front line. Oblast and local authorities are actively coordinating efforts with the humanitarian community, assessing needs and addressing operational issues.
Meanwhile, the UN, international NGOs and international organizations will help to strengthen the capacity of local organizations and governmental bodies while advocating for adherence to international humanitarian and human rights law.
In 2024, the Ukraine Humanitarian Fund (UHF) continued its vital role in addressing the humanitarian needs of war-affected people across Ukraine, including those in hard-to-reach front-line areas.
With the generous contributions from the humanitarian donor community, the UHF allocated $162 million by November 2024 to respond to the most critical humanitarian needs, including winter response and essential evacuations. These allocations enabled operational partners to deliver prioritized, multisectoral assistance to the most vulnerable people, ensuring life-saving aid reached those in urgent need. In addition, in response to rapidly evolving humanitarian needs, the Humanitarian Coordinator approved the immediate release of $3.8 million through the UHF as top-up funding in May 2024 to bolster evacuation operations in Kharkivska and Donetska oblasts, facilitating the safe relocation of civilians from high-risk areas.
In line with its localization strategy, the UHF reaffirmed its commitment to fostering meaningful local partnerships by promoting participation, capacity-strengthening, and the duty-of-care for Ukrainian organizations, including national and local NGOs, civil society organizations, women’s rights groups, organizations of people with disabilities and volunteer groups. These partners were instrumental in delivering principled last-mile assistance, particularly to the most vulnerable people in areas close to the front line. Of the total amount allocated through three allocations in 2024, 58 per cent of net funding was directed to national and local partners. This financial support not only enhanced the institutional capacity of local organizations but also improved the safety and security of aid workers. By November 2024, the UHF had increased the number of its eligible partners to 139 from 115 in 2023, of which 60 were Ukrainian organizations.
To facilitate a coordinated response to people living in hard-to-reach areas, humanitarian inter-agency convoys to hard-to-reach locations will continue as a critical modality in the response, complementing the response in areas where humanitarian partners have regular access.
Operational capacity in the occupied territories will depend on access negotiations. Clusters will maintain similar levels of planned reach to 2024, taking into consideration current levels of achievements. The WASH cluster has the highest planned reach due to its broad range of interventions that tend to benefit entire populations, including emergency repairs to water networks and district heating systems. The cluster conducted an in-depth needs analysis and mapping of partner capacity covering occupied raions where several organizations still plan to work through local stakeholders, even though reporting in 2024 has been constrained.
Access constraints and challenges
Approaching the fourth year after the escalation of the war in Ukraine, humanitarian access challenges across the country continued to be dominated by security-related constraints, while the areas of Ukraine under occupation remained inaccessible for humanitarian actors’ crossline operations despite ongoing efforts and engagements.
Air strikes damaging power infrastructure and other systems providing essential services, along with frequent threats from armed drones, pose significant challenges to the ability of humanitarian actors to assist affected people in areas of the country with the greatest needs. The most critical obstacles to humanitarian work are observed in the nine front-line oblasts in the north-east, east and south. The high intensity of hostilities in these oblasts, changes of territorial control, and evolving tactics and weaponry further complicate life-saving humanitarian operations in front-line locations and the immediate vicinity.
From January to October 2024, humanitarian workers reported 238 incidents impeding humanitarian access.
Of these, 95 involved violence against humanitarian personnel, facilities and assets, resulting in temporary suspension of crucial humanitarian activities. During this period, nine humanitarian workers were killed in the line of duty, with 40 injured, compared to 10 killed and 29 injured over the same period in 2023. Further deterioration of humanitarian access was observed in the front line in Donetska and, to a lesser extent, Kharkivska oblasts because of the advancement of the Russian Armed Forces. In the areas with no significant changes in the front line in 2024, the overall operational environment for humanitarian assistance is becoming more constrained due to growing risks associated with hostilities including air attacks and the widespread use of drones for reconnaissance and short-range attacks near the frontline. Areas in Khersonska, Zaporizka and Sumska oblasts have been particularly exposed to the above-mentioned risks. Collectively, the front-line oblasts accounted for 108 incidents associated with active hostilities impacting humanitarian organizations or staff.
The observed trends are likely to hold in 2025, with Donetska and Kharkivska oblasts remaining the focus of ground operations, exposing those left in front-line areas to an escalating level of hostilities and hardship associated with the shifting frontline.
In 2024, humanitarian access became more stringent due to the introduction of permit systems in Khersonska and (temporarily in) Donetska oblasts. Both systems were put in place in response to high-profile incidents leading to casualties among humanitarian workers. Despite a few rare cases of access denials and delays, humanitarian operations in these areas continue through the UN-operated Humanitarian Notification System as the main channel, the permits systems (mostly used by local organizations) and bilateral contacts with the local authorities. More concerning is an anticipated growing reliance of both national and international humanitarian actors on local residents – volunteers, civilians and local authorities – to conduct last-mile deliveries in areas with the highest intensity of hostilities. Moreover, the destruction of civilian facilities has reduced the capacity to store and dispatch humanitarian relief in front-line oblasts, forcing organizations to adjust the size and frequency of aid convoys. Reduced manpower due to movements of people and military mobilization have limited the ability of humanitarian organizations – either directly or through their contractors – to maintain the required level and scope of operations. Another challenge to humanitarian actors’ operational effectiveness stems from the disruption of public utilities in the wake of Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power infrastructure. The expected blackouts in the cold season of 2024-25 could become a major obstacle to the provision of humanitarian aid in the affected areas of Ukraine. While partners are in the process of bolstering operational continuity measures, the scale of the disruptions may surpass those previously observed in 2022-2023.
To overcome these challenges and ensure that the humanitarian community is well informed, the Humanitarian Access Working Group, co-chaired by the Norwegian Refugee Council and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), will continue to coordinate the monitoring of humanitarian access incidents.
Humanitarian response planning in areas under occupation by the Russian Federation considers the limited access and presence of partners, while focusing on critical needs for the most vulnerable, including children. Of the 12.7 million people in need of aid in Ukraine, at least 1 million live in the occupied territories. Aid workers have prioritized around 400,000 vulnerable people for assistance, and an estimated US$80 million would be required to ensure life-saving support can be provided in these areas. Although the current blockade and impediments imposed by the Russian Federation makes assistance in this part of Ukraine highly unlikely, the humanitarian community will continue to explore all possible modalities for high level advocacy to access the occupied territories and enable a principled and scaled-up response to all populations in need.
Coordination
Since 2022, Ukraine’s humanitarian coordination architecture has expanded in response to evolving needs in order to maintain agility while ensuring people-centred, locally led responses. The Humanitarian Country Team (HCT), composed of UN agencies, and international and national NGOs, with Red Cross organizations and donors as observers, provides strategic guidance for implementing the Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP).
It prioritizes safeguarding the centrality of protection, advocating for civilian safety, ensuring humanitarian access and facilitating resource mobilization. At the operational level, nine clusters, three Areas of Responsibility (AoRs) and the Cash Working Group (CWG) will continue to coordinate the response. Efforts will continue to strengthen linkages between national and subnational levels through the Inter-Cluster Coordination Group (ICCG) and Inter- Cluster Working Groups in the east and south.
A key initiative in 2024 was the piloting of area-based coordination (ABC) models at subnational level to promote decentralized coordination and enhance agility and efficiency in emergency response. In addition, efforts were taken to promote the inter- and intra-cluster deduplication of activities to improve efficiency and support resource mobilization. Efforts were also made to enhance inclusion of national and local organizations in strategic forums and advance gender considerations and disability inclusion in humanitarian action. General coordination meetings co-chaired by OCHA and regional authorities with the participation of various stakeholders at the sub-national level provide a forum for information-sharing on critical humanitarian issues. The Humanitarian Operations Planning Cell will continue to coordinate inter-agency convoys to deliver responses to hard-to-reach areas not covered by standard response activities in the east and south.
Local and national organizations, constituting 71 per cent of 2025 HNRP partners, have been critical in delivering efficient and dignified assistance to communities in need, delivering much of the response in areas close to the front line and supporting people fleeing hostilities. Localization of the response through national partners remains central to the humanitarian response in Ukraine and strengthening their role has been a priority for the HCT. Since 2023, the Alliance of Ukrainian CSOs has taken a leading role in advancing localization efforts, culminating in the development of a localization strategy endorsed by the HCT in May 2024. In 2025, the HCT will continue to provide sustained support towards a prioritized implementation of the strategy to strengthen and expand localization within Ukraine’s humanitarian system.
References
- OCHA. Humanitarian Response and Funding Snapshot (January - October 2024), November 2024
- Chernihivska, Donetska, kharkivska, khersonska, Luhanska, Mykolaivska, Odeska, Sumska and Zaporizka oblasts.
- OCHA. Humanitarian Access Snapshot (September to October 2024), November