Ukraine

Summary of needs

In 2025, nearly 5 million people, representing 15 per cent of the population, are estimated to be food insecure and in need of food and livelihood assistance. This is a reduction of about one-third from 2024. Food insecurity remains most severe in 10 of the most affected southern, eastern and northern oblasts,¹ with the highest number of food- insecure people in Khersonska (55 per cent), Zaporizka (42 per cent) and Donetska (39 per cent). All ten oblasts account for approximately 2.57 million people in need. The destruction of critical infrastructure and collapse of essential services, coupled with widespread displacement and economic impacts, have drastically reduced people’s ability to access food, sustain livelihoods, maintain agricultural production and afford basic food necessities.²

Food needs are most severe in the areas closest to the front line or active hostilities, where people lack access to functioning markets, income and critical services. Recent assessments and studies showed that people’s food and livelihood needs have worsened as their capacity and coping mechanisms are depleted as the war continues. According to Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), one in five households reported a decline in their main income compared to 2023.³ When asked about the type of support people would prefer to receive, nearly one in three households mentioned food. The lack of livelihood opportunities is increasingly a main driver of needs in addition to other life-saving assistance. The 2024 Multisectoral Needs Assessment (MSNA) reported that 62 per cent of households nationwide were classified as experiencing severe or extreme hardship, while FAO’s assessment reported that 7 in 10 households are engaged in different types of coping behaviours to meet their immediate food and basic needs. These needs are even more severe for internally displaced people who have lost their homes, livelihoods and social networks, leaving them particularly vulnerable.

Thewar has significantly impacted agricultural production, with more than $8 billion in damages.⁴ Ongoing shelling and contamination of arable lands have restricted access to fields, impeding planting and reducing crop yields. Damage to critical infrastructure, including roads and storage facilities, as well as large movements of people away from rural areas have also severely disrupted agricultural activities. The disruption of value chains and access to market transportation networks have led to smaller harvests and persistent labour shortages. Drone attacks in front-line communities have further compounded the challenges, hindering the efficient distribution of food. This has weakened the national food supply chain, decreased profitability and productivity, and increased export challenges. The war continues to erode household resilience, forcing many to exhaust their savings, sell off assets and incur debt, significantly hindering their prospects for recovery.⁵

Response strategy

Of the total Cluster planned reach, 1.8million people are prioritized for emergency food assistance. This represents a 38 per cent decrease compared to 2024. The response strategy also demonstrates a shift in the balance between in-kind and market-based transfer modalities, reflecting the evolution of the food response to match the preferences of people.

The second Cluster objective aims to protect and restore the essential livelihoods of 1.7 million people. In line with the Cluster’s strategy to restore the livelihoods of affected people, partners will address immediate food security needs and offer off-farm livelihood opportunities and agricultural assistance to foster long-term self-reliance. This dual approach aims to decrease dependency on humanitarian aid, particularly in areas where a gradual transition from food assistance to sustainable livelihood support is possible. These strategic considerations are embedded in the Cluster’s planning framework, ensuring that food assistance is provided for less than 12 months in regions where livelihood restoration is feasible. This approach is further strengthened through the Building Blocks platform, where all activities are integrated, enabling cluster partners to select prioritized people for assistance and avoid duplication.

To address food insecurity under the first Cluster objective, partners will provide in-kind or cash-based assistance in the 10 most affected oblasts. In rural areas near the front line, where markets and banking systems are disrupted, partners will provide in-kind food assistance. For areas with functioning markets and financial services, cash- based transfers will be utilized. For rapidly evolving needs, such as sudden displacement due to front-line shifts or escalation of hostilities, ready-to-eat rations and hot meals will be provided to people in transit or newly displaced people until they receive multipurpose cash assistance (MPCA). To prevent further deterioration of livelihoods and reduce dependence on humanitarian aid, the Cluster will provide livelihood support to vulnerable rural communities under the second Cluster objective. The strategy will include both market-based interventions and in-kind support where necessary, focusing on scaling up on-farm and off-farm livelihood activities.

Key off-farm livelihood interventions will include supporting job creation and retention, and reskilling initiatives, alongside the provision of cash grants to vulnerable households to establish small businesses. On-farm livelihood interventions will focus on agriculture and livestock support. Cluster partners will also prioritize capacity-building for women and girls, enhancing their participation in agricultural production. The Cluster will continue promoting community engagement through post-distribution monitoring, field visits and close collaboration with local and national organizations, including organizations of people with disabilities (OPDs) and women’s rights organizations (WROs), throughout all interventions.

The Cluster will emphasize harmonized prioritization, response and monitoring to ensure that assistance is directed to those most in need, while avoiding gaps or duplication through the introduction of the Building Blocks deduplication platform for in-kind food assistance, sectoral cash and livelihoods grants. The Cluster will also encourage collaboration with local food and seed producers for the procurement of in-kind food assistance and agriculture inputs to bolster local economies and improve sustainability.

Targeting and prioritization

In 2025, the Food Security and Livelihoods Cluster (FSL) aims to provide life-saving food and livelihood assistance to 2.3 million people, focusing on the most vulnerable and food-insecure people in the 10 most affected oblasts experiencing the highest levels of food insecurity and deteriorating livelihoods in the south, east and north-east. TheCluster will ensure inclusive and gender-sensitive programming to address the specific vulnerabilities of internally displaced people whose livelihoods have been severely disrupted by displacement, older people and people with disabilities, Roma and LGBTIQ+ and female-headed households facing significant challenges due to lower income levels and other forms of barriers to assistance. By directing interventions towards these priority groups, the Cluster ensures that assistance reaches those most affected by the ongoing war, helping to mitigate the risk of further deterioration in food security and livelihoods across priority oblasts.

Cost of response

In 2025, an estimated $613 million will be required to implement the Cluster’s response plan. This includes $380 million for food assistance, a 16 per cent decrease compared to 2024. This is based on harmonized Cluster response guidelines for in-kind food assistance and sectoral cash for food, inclusive of unit cost and implementation expenses: in-kind food assistance–$20 per person per month; and sectoral cash for food–$36 per month. Recognizing the varying food security needs across regions, the Cluster conducted a detailed analysis to tailor response durations.

Food assistance will be provided either year-round or during the four critical winter months, depending on assessed needs. The Cluster will require $233 million to provide emergency livelihood support to 1.7 million people, with the average cost-per-person being $137. A slight reduction in the average cost-per person is attributed to the transfer of agricultural infrastructure and the supply chain from the humanitarian response to recovery.

The FSL Cluster determines the unit costs for items in the in-kind food basket based on recent tenders and comprehensive market research. Most items, such as buckwheat, millet and other cereal-based products are procured locally within Ukraine. The cost of locally sourced cereal-based products is shaped by a range of factors. Agricultural conditions such as planted areas, crop yields per hectare and the impact of climate variability are key determinants. Additionally, economic variables like inflation – driven by fluctuations in fertilizer prices, labour costs, energy expenses and transportation logistics – significantly influence pricing. Other notable factors include taxation policy changes, damage caused by shelling and missile attacks, global market trends and hedging practices to mitigate price fluctuations across different crop types. The dynamic and often unpredictable nature of these variables make price forecasting highly challenging.