Ukraine

Objective

The most vulnerable people are protected from cold weather in winter through the provision of multisectoral critical aid and services.

The 2025–2026 Winter Response Plan aims to deliver essential multisectoral humanitarian assistance to over 1.7 million people — including more than 356,000 displaced people and approximately 1.3 million non-displaced conflict-affected people — during the winter period from October 2025 to March 2026. The response requires US$277.7 million in funding.

The Plan operationalizes winter-specific activities outlined in the reprioritized 2025 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP). Prioritized interventions across four clusters are aligned with the four strategic priorities endorsed by the Humanitarian Country Team (HCT):

• Supporting the most vulnerable people who remain close to the front line;
• Evacuations;
• Emergency response after strikes; and
• Humanitarian contributions to the most vulnerable displaced people, including those in collective centres.

The Plan serves as a tool for advocacy, resource mobilization, and coordination with government authorities on winter preparedness and response. Cash assistance will be prioritized as modality for the winter response, wherever feasible and appropriate.

A strong monitoring and reporting framework, coupled with a protection lens, will guide the response strategy to ensure flexibility and adaptability as needs evolve. The provision of timely and appropriate information on the activities (and any changes) will also be prioritized as an integral part of the response.

Scope of the Plan and prioritization

To ensure a focused and impactful response, the 2025–2026 Winter Response Plan has a narrower scope compared to previous years. In line with guidance from the Humanitarian Country Team (HCT), the Plan gives precedence to life-saving, winter-specific activities outlined in the reprioritized Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP).

The response will focus on multisectoral support for the most vulnerable groups impacted by the ongoing war — including older people, persons with disabilities and children — who face heightened risks during winter due to exposure, isolation, or limited access to services.

In year 4 of this humanitarian response to the full scale invasion of the Russian Federation, support to energy co-generation and the provision of generators is not included in this Plan and will be coordinated through other forums with recovery and development actors.

As in previous years, the Plan focuses exclusively on life-saving interventions specific to winter. Ongoing HNRP life-saving activities implemented year-round including those scaled up during winter, are not included in this Plan but will continue and be reported through the broader HNRP response. Efforts will be made to ensure complementarity with government-led winterisation activities to avoid duplication and promote joint prioritization based on vulnerabilities. Close coordination with national and regional authorities will help align humanitarian efforts with government priorities and ensure a more focused response.

Timely resource mobilization and prompt funding disbursements are essential to enable partners to procure and pre-position supplies, ensuring a timely and effective response.

Partners’ Capacity and Coordination Mechanisms

While resource limitations and funding gaps will likely further constrain the scale and scope of assistance compared to previous years, partners will build on experience from previous responses. This includes leveraging existing capacities such as trained personnel, mobile units, pre-positioned supplies, and established modalities for awareness-raising and Complaints and Feedback Mechanisms (CFMs) to address winter-related needs. Local NGOs and community-based organizations will continue to play a central role in frontline delivery, last-mile distribution, needs assessments and coordination with local authorities. International partners will complement these efforts with technical expertise, guidance on humanitarian standards, protection mainstreaming and broader operational reach. Coordination mechanisms and technical support — such as CCCM in collective sites, WASH Technical Cell for district heating and the Shelter/NFI Cluster on improving insulation — will continue to be key in optimizing and guiding response efforts.

Analysis of winter needs

The Plan has been developed with existing data, information and analysis available at the time of developing the plan, with flexibility to adjust as new data becomes available¹ and integrated to the monitoring of the plan.

According to the REACH 2025–2026 Cold Spot Risk Assessment, areas most affected by cold in winter are predominantly concentrated in northern and eastern Ukraine along the frontline and northern border (Chernihivska, Dnipropetrovska, Donestka, Kharkivska and Sumska) with pockets in central oblasts.² People in these areas are exposed to the harsh winter conditions, compounded by heightened vulnerability (including older people, people with disabilities, single-headed households with children, people with chronic illnesses), and severely damaged infrastructure resulting from ongoing conflict and persistent airstrikes.³ Five raions along the front line and northern border — Kramatorskyi in Donetska Oblast, Kharkivskyi and Bohodukhivskyi in Kharkivska Oblast, and Shostkynskyi and Sumskyi in Sumska Oblast — have been identified as the most vulnerable during winter. This is due to compounded risks from extreme winter conditions. While winter temperatures in southern and south-eastern oblasts — such as Khersonska, Mykolaivska, and Zaporizka — tend to be less severe than in the east and north, populations in these areas are equally vulnerable due to widespread infrastructure destruction and limited access to essential services.

Displaced people residing in collective sites are among the most vulnerable during winter. Recent monitoring of collective sites ⁴ indicates that nearly 60 per cent of over 1,500 locations continue to face winter-related gaps — including the need for minor repairs to heating systems and boiler rooms, as well as shortages of winter appliances and solid fuel.

Ukraine has one of the largest district heating systems in the world with almost half of families, mostly in urban cities, relying on centralised water supplies heated by gas or coal.⁵ One in five families reports health issues linked to cold indoor temperatures, indicating heating inadequacy has evolved at municipal levels.⁶ Extreme cold poses serious health risks, especially for older adults, displaced people and those with chronic illnesses. Heating and power disruptions exacerbate these risks.

Rural households that depend on livestock for their livelihoods will require support in emergency animal feed during winter, as fodder supplies have dropped by 23 percent due to conflict-driven land losses and poor yields.⁷ Timely provision of animal feed will help households protect their livestock, sustaining healthy and productive assets that contribute to nutritional intake, resilience, and overall food security during the winter.

Findings from the Cold Spot Risk Assessment were cross-referenced with the 2024–2025 winter response monitoring data and access severity analysis to better understand the gaps in last year’s response. The review confirmed that several high-risk areas — particularly in the east and south — remain critically underserved due to limited coverage and access challenges. These findings are informing planning efforts for the upcoming winter response, with a focus on addressing gaps in priority raions facing compounded vulnerability. Despite a solid evidence base to guide planning, analysis remains constrained by persistent information gaps. In frontline areas, data on heating infrastructure damage quickly becomes outdated and access to reliable, real-time information is limited — especially in hard-to-reach and occupied territories, where needs are likely to be most severe.

While recent assessments have helped identify vulnerable population groups, more granular, household-level data is needed — particularly on coping strategies and the use of unsafe or inadequate heating methods, which pose direct public health risks. A more detailed understanding is also required of the capacity of local authorities and utility providers to support winterization efforts in the most affected communities. This will be essential to strengthen coordination, target assistance effectively, and adapt response approaches as conditions evolve. Monitoring of the situation will continue to inform the response, with a focus on high-risk and underserved areas to ensure that assistance remains relevant, timely, and needs-driven.