Defining the crisis: shocks, impacts, and people affected
The causes and consequences of the crisis vary across Nigeria. In the north-east, a non-international armed conflict driven by the Boko Haram insurgency is the key cause of vulnerability. Insecurity and displacement in other regions are caused by inter-communal conflicts and the activities of armed criminal gangs. Across the country, climate-induced disasters such as floods are becoming more frequent and severe. The impact of climate change on the availability of water and grazing land is likely a contributing factor to farmer– herder conflict, with herders moving further south in search of grazing land for their cattle. Poor water and sanitation infrastructure – 45 million Nigerians do not have access to water and sanitation facilities – means that waterborne disease poses a risk during
flooding, particularly cholera which is endemic across the country.
The conflict in the north-east has resulted in a total of 2,3 million IDPs, as well as 300,000 IDPs in neighbouring states and more than 300,000 refugees. Displacement in the north-west and north-central regions accounts for an additional 1,1 million IDPs. In addition, there are 78,000 refugees in Nigeria, mainly from Cameroon. Recent floods have affected 34 out of 36 states, impacting approximately 3 million people across 18 assessed states. These disasters have claimed 692 lives, displaced 896,000 individuals, destroyed 226,000 houses and devastated about 1.3 million hectares of farmland. Cholera outbreaks have surged due to contaminated water sources, killing an estimated 702 people nationwide.
According to the Sectoral Needs and Risk Analysis (SNRA), the conflict has affected 7.5 per cent of the population in the BAY states. Borno carries the largest share (65 per cent), followed by Yobe (18 per cent) and Adamawa (17 per cent). Floods, the most significant climate-related disaster, have impacted 28 per cent of the population across the three states. Yobe accounts for 66 per cent of flood-related shocks. Disease outbreaks, though affecting only 1.2 per cent of the population, hit returnees (33 per cent) and IDPs (29 per cent) hardest.
Some 5.1 million are projected to be acutely food insecure during the 2025 lean season, with 2.5 million children malnourished. Displacement has worsened the crisis, with over 2 million people forced to relocate. Additionally, flooding displaced a further 500,000 individuals in Maiduguri Metropolitan Council (MMC) and Jere, with 40,000 still unable to return home. IDPs and returnees make up 28 per cent and 19 per cent of the affected population, respectively. They face severe challenges accessing shelter, food and essential services. Fragile health-care systems are overwhelmed by disease outbreaks, especially in flood-hit areas and camps. Women, children, the elderly and people with disabilities are at higher risk of GBV, neglect, and limited access to clean water and medical care.
People in need
Over the past five years, the number of people in need in the BAY states has steadily declined, dropping from 8.7 million in 2021 to 7.8 million this year. This represents a 10 per cent reduction over the five years.
This year’s figure shows a slight reduction of 100,000 people (1.3 per cent) compared to last year’s estimate of 7.9 million. While persistent conflict remains a critical driver of vulnerability, improved humanitarian interventions, targeted programming, and localized stabilization efforts may have reduced the overall number of people in need.
Trend in pin
Unique needs of different groups of people
The ongoing crisis disproportionately impacts women, children, people with disabilities and rural households, exacerbating pre-existing inequalities and vulnerabilities. The 2024 SNRA indicates that women and girls face acute challenges, including heightened risks of GBV, child marriage and unemployment.
Women, especially those in female-headed households, are 34 per cent more likely to face severe hunger and 16 per cent more likely to have poor food consumption compared to male-headed households. These women are also significantly more liable to borrow and accumulate debt to meet their basic needs (36 per cent) and are more prone to unemployment (23 per cent). At the same time, their children face a 41 per cent higher likelihood of dropping out of school to supplement family income through begging. Children, particularly girls, experience limited access to education and high rates of malnutrition, particularly in rural areas where access to health services and nutrition programmes is constrained. Households with disabled members are also heavily affected, with a 20 per cent higher chance of resorting to begging for food and a 31 per cent higher likelihood of child marriage as a survival strategy. Rural communities are 76 per cent more likely to live over three hours away from health- care services and struggle with access to essential services, further deepening the crisis in remote areas.
These disparities are often deeply rooted in systemic inequalities, such as gender- and disability-based exclusion, which leave vulnerable groups without representation in governance or community decision- making. In Borno, Adamawa and Yobe, people with disabilities reported feeling ignored in aid distribution. Addressing these interconnected needs requires inclusive approaches that prioritize the voices of marginalized groups, especially women, children, the elderly and people with disabilities, to ensure that aid is equitable, effective and tailored to their unique challenges.
The highest needs
The sectors driving the overall PiN are primarily water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH), food security and health. The WASH sector is the leading driver, contributing to 35 per cent of the overall PiN, emphasizing the critical gaps in access to clean water and sanitation infrastructure across the region. Food security follows closely (26 per cent), highlighting the widespread need for food assistance due to disrupted livelihoods and ongoing conflicts. Health needs also significantly contribute to the overall PiN (19.1 per cent), reflecting the strain on health-care services due to increased disease outbreaks and limited access to health-care facilities.
The interlinkages between these sectoral needs further amplify the overall humanitarian crisis. For instance, the lack of clean water and adequate sanitation exacerbates health risks, leading to disease outbreaks such as cholera, which, in turn, places additional pressure on an already overburdened health sector. Simultaneously, poor food security contributes to malnutrition, which further weakens community health resilience. These interconnected needs create a compounded vulnerability, underscoring the importance of an integrated response that addresses multiple sectors concurrently to effectively reduce the humanitarian burden in the region.
Severity of needs
Joint Intersectoral Analysis Framework (JIAF 2.0) analysis indicates that the most severe needs are concentrated in Borno State, with eight Local Government Areas (LGAs) experiencing ‘extreme’ levels of intersectoral needs – severity level 4. This reflects an elevated risk of mortality and morbidity, and highly inadequate basic services. This is primarily driven by ongoing conflict and displacement. IDPs in Borno are particularly affected, especially given the closure of IDP camps by the state government and their return to and resettlement in remote areas where it is difficult to access essential services.
However, compared to last year, Borno has shown some improvement, with a reduction in LGAs classified as severity level 4, indicating some stabilization. Despite this progress, Borno still has 13 LGAs at severity level 3, highlighting ongoing humanitarian needs.
Overall, while the reduction in ‘extreme’ levels across the BAY states is a positive sign, a significant number of LGAs are still experiencing ‘severe’ needs, underscoring persistent challenges in meeting basic survival and protection needs. Both Adamawa and Yobe have seen an increase in areas classified as severity level 3, indicating an intensification of needs. This analysis highlights the need for differentiated interventions, particularly in Borno, to address the most urgent needs and support areas where humanitarian conditions remain critical.
Humanitarian outlook & risks
In 2025, the BAY states are expected to face significant humanitarian challenges as crises persist against the backdrop of continued economic hardships. These risks and vulnerabilities will, however, vary within and across states. Environmental threats add to the concerns of people in the BAY states, with 12 per cent of households worried about flooding from heavy rains – as reported in the SNRA. In addition, 7 per cent fear potential violence from NSAGs and communal clashes, while 5 per cent are concerned about outbreaks of diseases such as cholera.
Despite recognizing these risks, more than 70 per cent of households feel unprepared for them. The inadequacy or absence of social safety nets – reported by 86 per cent of households in Borno and 73 per cent in Yobe and Adamawa – leaves many without the means to cope with shocks or invest in preventative measures. Historical data confirms these concerns, showing patterns of seasonal flooding, violence and health crises exacerbated by economic instability, which have severely impacted the population.
Floods
Historically, the region has been prone to seasonal flooding during the rainy season – flash floods from July to September and riverine floods from July to November. Heavy rainfall causes rivers to overflow and results in flash floods, especially in areas with poor drainage. Likewise, periodic droughts will also occur, further impacting on largely rain-fed agriculture. Climate change is expected to produce weather extremes, making both floods and drought more frequent and severe. Although specific forecasts for
2025 are not yet available, the potential development of El Niño could bring above-average rainfall, increasing flood risks. Even with average levels of flooding, the severity remains high due to dense populations, poor drainage, and the extreme vulnerability of communities. Since 1998, floods have severely affected an average of 520,0008 people annually in the BAY states, including between 20,000 and 100,000 IDPs.
Drivers of needs
Conflict
The current trend in the BAY states is expected to continue, with NSAGs shifting their focus from large-scale attacks on military targets or settlements to predatory attacks on civilians. Historical data reveals seasonal fluctuations, with periodic spikes in incidents often linked to resource scarcity or political events such as local elections and policy changes. Forecasting for 2025 – based on the time-series model, Prophet – indicate these patterns, aligning closely with past data, and proves reliable for planning purposes.
Projections suggest incidents will stabilize, ranging from 615 to 700 in 2025. However, ongoing clashes could displace an additional 20,000 to 50,000 people, further straining resources in host communities and IDP camps. Critically, insecurity and conflict continue to prevent many people from returning home, despite efforts by the government to initiate return and relocation processes. This underscores a significant gap between policy ambitions and on-the-ground realities, where insecurity, lack of basic services, and insufficient support for rebuilding livelihoods hinder sustainable reintegration.
Disease outbreaks, including cholera
The BAY states are at high risk of disease outbreaks due to seasonal flooding, displacement, overcrowded camps, and the common practice of open defecation in rural areas. Low levels of vaccination and poor health care coverage limits the ability to address such outbreaks. Flooding often contaminates water sources, leading to outbreaks of cholera and other types of waterborne diseases.
In the BAY states, the cholera case-fatality rate is significantly higher than the national average, mainly because of poor health infrastructure and inadequate water, sanitation and hygiene facilities. In 2024, flooding and poor WASH infrastructure resulted in over 6,400 suspected cholera cases and 50 deaths, with Borno being the most affected. On average, between 6,000 and 15,000 cholera cases are recorded each year. There are a number of other diseases endemic to the north of Nigeria that pose a risk to the population. Combined with malnutrition, many diseases such as measles can put children’s lives at risk.
Affected communities' priorities, preferences and capacities
Communities across the BAY states have identified their most urgent humanitarian needs through consultations conducted using the People First Impact Method (P-FIM), involving 429 focus groups. The priority needs vary among different groups but consistently include food, shelter, livelihoods and water. Women emphasize challenges in securing food, water and health care for their families. Men focus on the need for livelihood opportunities, like farming and manual labour to support their households. Children express a strong desire for education, noting that access to schools is limited or unavailable due to security concerns or displacement.
People with disabilities report difficulties in accessing basic services, with their specific needs – such as specialized health care – often overlooked in humanitarian programmes. Despite these hardships, communities are leveraging their capacities, demonstrating their resilience and adaptability.
Many engage in small-scale economic activities like farming and petty trading, though these efforts are often insufficient to provide adequate income due to insecurity and market disruptions. Youth in Borno have turned to commercial motor tricycles, perceiving them as a safer means of earning a living than farming, and some young women are involved in traditional cap making and tailoring. Many rely on informal support networks – family, friends and neighbours – to help alleviate immediate needs.
When asked about assistance preferences and barriers in the 2024 SNRA, the majority of respondents (an average of 67 per cent across all states) chose face-to-face communication as their preferred method for receiving information, followed by phone calls at 20 per cent. Many communities prefer in-person aid distribution due to low literacy levels and distrust of remote systems like phone- based mechanisms. However, barriers to accessing aid persist: 18 per cent of households, particularly
in Adamawa, report the absence of aid providers as a key obstacle, while 16 per cent cite exclusion or lack of information, with a higher incidence among IDPs. 'Perceptions' of inequitable distribution has led to frustration and feelings of neglect in Yobe and Adamawa. Women, children, and people with disabilities are often excluded from community meetings, affecting their ability to voice their needs and influence aid distribution. Language barriers also limit access to assistance, especially in Yobe where information is not always provided in a local language.
Communities expressed a strong desire for timely updates on aid distribution schedules and the security situation. Overall, there is a high satisfaction rate (70 per cent) with the assistance received – highest in Adamawa (83 per cent). However, some 27 per cent of those receiving aid expressed dissatisfaction, particularly among IDPs in Yobe highlighted the need for more inclusive approach.
Community consultations