Boundaries of the humanitarian response (who, where and what)
The purpose of the boundary setting is to decide on what activities to undertake and what activities are best undertaken by other actors, such as development partners. In the context of Nigeria this has included setting boundaries vis-à-vis regions outside the BAY states but also within the BAY states, reflecting the severity of needs. In order to maintain a strategic focus and maximize limited resources available, the focus is on life-saving interventions.
Further reading
Source: HNRP
Beyond the north-east
Nigeria has some of the highest levels of needs globally, as mentioned throughout this document. Humanitarian crises triggered by armed violence, natural disasters (especially flooding), and infectious disease outbreaks are also endemic outside the north-east. The HCT recognizes many of the needs driven by these humanitarian events as priorities. Yet, chronic vulnerabilities, such as malnutrition, which are exacerbated but not solely triggered by conflict, may need to be addressed through means others than the HNRP. During the 2023 HCT retreat, it was decided that emergency responses outside the north-east are to be time-bound in nature, government-led, and coordinated by a volunteer HCT member. To address the underlying vulnerabilities caused by local violence, food insecurity and lack of access to services outside the north-east, the response should adopt a dual track approach that tackles not just humanitarian needs, but also addresses the underlying causes of vulnerability through development interventions. The government should take the lead on this, including allocating budgets for these priorities at federal and state level, both for humanitarian and development efforts. Localization, including the strengthening of local government and civil society, is at the core of this approach.
North-west Nigeria: Overview of needs
North-western Nigeria, a region comprised of seven states, is grappling with long-standing vulnerabilities stemming from poverty and chronic under-development. This is compounded by the socioeconomic crisis affecting the entire country since the Covid-19 pandemic, rapid population growth and climate change. Sokoto, for example, is the poorest state in Nigeria, with 91 per cent of its population experiencing multidimensional poverty. Moreover, the population in the states of Sokoto, Zamfara and Katsina grew from 15 million in 2010 to 22 million in 2020. Nigeria has the highest rates of deforestation in Africa. Swathes of land roughly the size of Switzerland were deforested between 2005 and 2015, including in the north-west. The north of Nigeria has also seen some of the most rapid temperature increases and extreme weather, as well as soil loss from flooding. This has resulted in increased aridity and desertification. The scarcity of water and grazing land is fueling inter-communal conflict, including between farmers and herders.
In the states of Katsina, Zamfara, Sokoto and, increasingly, Kaduna, these vulnerabilities are exacerbated by armed violence due, in part, to the absence of rule of law institutions or security services outside the state capitals. Violence also disrupts livelihoods and drives displacement. The plight of people in the north-west is further exacerbated by lack of basic services. Since 2011, a myriad of criminal groups, so-called bandits, have been taking advantage of this situation. These groups typically assume control over natural resources – such as the gold mines in Zamfara State, which has now become the epicenter of violence in the north-west. In Zamfara and Kaduna states alone, there have been over 4,758 reported fatalities between 2018 and 2023.
While kidnappings in Nigeria are widespread, affecting every region and involving different criminal actors, the north-west region remains the most affected, with an escalation of mass abductions in the first quarter of 2024. At least three incidents of mass kidnappings have occurred since early March. On 7 March, NSAGs invaded a school and kidnapped 287 pupils in Chikun LGA in Kaduna; the students were then released after a fortnight. In another incident, gunmen abducted 15 children from an Islamic school in Sokoto on 9 March. On 12 March, gunmen kidnapped about 61 people in Kajuru LGA, Kaduna State. These kidnappings are largely motivated by economic gain. In late 2024, a new NSAG, Lakurawa, emerged in Sokoto State in areas bordering the Republic of Niger. It is not yet clear how this group will affect the humanitarian situation or humanitarian operations.
As a consequence of unchecked violence, some 487,000 people are internally displaced in Sokoto, Zamfara and Katsina. Around 60 per cent of all people displaced are children. In the north-west, only 14 per cent of IDPs live in camps, compared to 48 per cent in the north-east. The fact that most IDPs reside in host communities has an impact on access to services for the entire population. In terms of education, from January to September 2023, some 520 schools were closed in Katsina, Sokoto and Zamfara due to insecurity, or because schools were occupied by NSAGs. In some instances, IDPs sought temporary shelter in schools. A third of households do not have adequate and potable water for cooking and drinking in Zamfara, Katsina and Sokoto. Women were reported to be at risk of sexual exploitation and abuse, by both NSAGs and people within their community, according to an assessment conducted by the Danish Refugee Council. Global acute malnutrition rates peaked in 2024, reaching 17.8 per cent in Sokoto, 12.3 per cent in Katsina and 10.1 per cent in Zamfara, all above the 10 per cent emergency threshold. The burden of severe acute malnutrition also increased in these three states, from an estimated 532,000 children to 761,000 children.
In the October–December 2024 post-harvest period, an estimated 25 million people were food insecure, including 9 million from the seven north-western states. Of these, 3,9 million are from Sokoto, Katsina and Zamfara. The number of food-insecure people is expected to increase by 32.2 per cent to 33.2 million in the 2025 lean season. This includes 11.6 people in north-west Nigeria, with Kaduna (2.3 million), Kano (2 million) and Katsina (2.1 million) being the worst affected.
Floods
The heavy flooding in 2024 resulted in widespread damage, displacement and severe disruption of livelihoods across Nigeria. The first round of a joint flood assessment carried out in 17 states from 26 October to 5 November, indicated that more than 2.9 million people were affected by the floods in 2024. All seven states in the north-west were badly hit, affecting almost 400,000 people and killing 148. Flooding in Kebbi and Jigwa, the two most flood-prone states in the region, affected 280,000 and 241,000 people respectively. This included an estimated 94,000 and 81,000 people who were displaced by flooding across the two states.
Disease outbreaks
Health-care services across the north of Nigeria are threadbare, including for routine immunization. Sokoto State has the highest prevalence of so-called ‘zero-dose’ children in Nigeria or children that have not received any vaccines. The lack of coverage and limited access to health care, including vaccines, make north-west Nigeria particularly prone to disease outbreaks. A significant outbreak of diphtheria in 2023, for example, affected some 13,400 people. In Kano State, the epicenter of the outbreak, one third of patients were unvaccinated. A substantial number of children suffer from diarrhea (12.2 per cent in Katsina, 10.1 per cent in Sokoto and 7.9 per cent in Zamfara). Only 7 per cent of diarrhea cases were treated using oral rehydration salts and zinc in Sokoto State.
Of the ten most cholera-affected states in Nigeria in 2024, five states in the north-west account for 53 per cent of reported cases, with Katsina being the most affected (2,193), followed by Sokoto (1,295), Kaduna (1,042), Jigawa (881) and Kano (863). During the reporting period (the first 46 weeks of the cholera outbreak), 350 deaths were reported across all seven north-western states. Meningitis and yellow fever, both of which are preventable by immunization, predominantly occur in the north-west, according to the recent NEMA risk analysis.
Prioritization within the response
Priorities/ areas with highest severity needs
Priority 1 – Life-saving actions: as part of a humanitarian-led response: in LGAs with acute needs requiring emergency intervention, humanitarian actors should work together to ensure a swift and efficient response, while ensuring non-duplication and strict complementarity with government- supported programming.
- Severity level 4 (extreme): Areas where the intersectoral severity of needs has reached phase 4 should be the highest priority for life-saving interventions. In the BAY states, these are the conflict-affected zones, particularly within Borno and certain parts of Yobe and Adamawa. Here, risk to life is highest due to conflict, displacement, climatic impacts, disease outbreaks, lack of access to health care and inadequate shelter. Overlapping needs across sectors, such as health, WASH, shelter, food security, protection and nutrition, exacerbate the situation. In these contexts, it is imperative to address basic survival needs like emergency health care, food assistance and protection services.
- In Borno, there are eight LGAs with severity level 4: Ngala, Monguno, Maiduguri, Magumeri, Konduga, Jere, Gubio and Damboa. However, the Borno State Government (BSG) has restricted emergency humanitarian response outside the following LGAs: Ngala, Monguno, Damboa, Dikwa, Kala- Balge, Mobbar, Kukawa, Abadam, Guzamala and Marte – with the exception of emergency WASH and nutrition activities, which are also permitted in Magumeri, Bama, Gwoza and Gubio. The BSG encourages ongoing projects to continue until they end but does not support scaling up or new activities. Notably, the BSG includes four LGAs with no access to international humanitarian actors (Kukawa, Abadam, Guzamala and Marte) .These are beyond the reach of international humanitarian actors and, therefore, fall under the government-led response.
- In Adamawa, only Madagali is classified as a phase 4 LGA, while in Yobe there are none.
Priority 2 – Ensuring access to essential services (depending on funding availability): The focus will be on IDP camps where basic needs are only partially met, and the population still experiences severe needs. Interventions will comprise activities to provide basic services that aim to meet humanitarian standards, such as the rehabilitation of WASH infrastructure, provision of food and inputs for food production, essential primary health-care services, repair of shelters, and provision of non-food items.
The emphasis will be on promoting a localized-led humanitarian response, which has the advantage of costing less and could help access hard-to-reach areas. A key aim, regardless, is to support activities that help advance a transition to solutions for IDPs – in other words, solutions that reduce the vulnerability of those displaced so that they no longer have humanitarian needs.
- Severity level 3 (severe): In phase-3 LGAs, while the intersectoral severity of needs is not at extreme levels, there are large concentrations of PiN. This is particularly evident among IDPs in Borno, both in-camp and out-of-camp, and returnees and host communities in Yobe and Adamawa. Single-headed households, vulnerable women and girls, persons with disabilities, and the elderly in particular, face a significant volume of unmet needs across multiple sectors and should be prioritized.
- The top 10 phase-3 LGAs are Dikwa, Nganzai, Gwoza, Bama, Kalabalge, Mafa, Mobbar and Kaga (in Borno), and Gujba (Yobe) and Numan (in Adamawa). A high concentration of PiN indicates that humanitarian interventions could have a broader impact, reaching more people and addressing multiple vulnerabilities simultaneously. Of the 65 LGAs across the BAY states, 45 are classified as phase-3 areas.
Priority 3—Anticipatory and proactive approaches:Based on risk analysis, key activities have been identified to mitigate the impact of cyclical humanitarian events, such as climate impacts and disease outbreaks. To create a seamless link between preparedness, anticipatory action and rapid response, a fluid continuum is envisaged where these three critical approaches complement each other in real time, with each phase reinforcing the next.
In the BAY states, where flooding, cholera outbreaks, and conflict- induced displacement are recurring challenges, it is already known when and where these shocks are likely to occur – with the possible exception of conflict. By integrating both approaches, a shift from reactive measures to a proactive and responsive action cycle should be possible, reducing suffering as well as being more economically efficient. The government, development partners, communities and humanitarian actors should work together to ensure that such an approach is viable.
The LGAs classified as severity levels 1 and 2 are:
- Adamawa State: Yola North, Fufore, Ganye, Toungo, Jada
- Borno State: Shani, Kwaya, Kusar, Hawul, Biu, Bayo
Population-specific vulnerabilities
Across all regions,the affected people community members agree that vulnerable groups – including female-headed households, orphans, the elderly, women, children, and people with disabilities – should be prioritized for aid. The humanitarian community advocates for a systematic approach to prioritize the most disadvantaged, reflecting a collective understanding that these groups are most at risk and in need of immediate support.
Government and development-led areas:
Intersectoral severity 1 and 2 areas (11 of the 65 LGAs) are excluded from the HNRP.
In these LGAs, the response should be predominantly government-led, supported by development partners where appropriate. Recognizing the importance of sustainable development in these areas, the United Nations has allocated over $20 million in funded plans for 2024 under its development initiatives.
Earlier in 2024, each of the three states launched their own durable solutions plans for IDPs, marking a significant milestone after 14 years of crisis. Moving forward, it is imperative to increasingly leverage local and federal resources to enhance the sustainability and effectiveness of interventions. By strengthening collaboration with local governments and harnessing national capacities, responses can become more resilient and context-specific, and increasingly owned by the communities they serve.
The three-year Durable Solutions Strategies for Borno, Yobe and Adamawa States (2025–2027), launched at the beginning of 2024, aim to address the pressing needs of IDPs, returnees and displacement-affected communities through comprehensive and targeted interventions. Borno’s $2.7 billion plan, focusing on over 5.5 million people, prioritizes housing (77 per cent of the budget), schools, health-care centres, and basic infrastructure like waterworks and boreholes, alongside initiatives to enhance livelihoods, security and social cohesion. Yobe’s $1.3 billion strategy targets 2.8 million people by promoting safe returns, local integration and relocations, underpinned by housing, education and livelihood investments to foster resilience and address the root causes of displacement. Adamawa’s $1.2 billion plan supports over a million people through local integration, voluntary returns and relocations, emphasizing community-driven approaches, human rights and sustainable development. Together, these plans represent a unified commitment to rebuilding lives, reducing vulnerabilities and promoting long-term stability across the region.
Risk-informed planning
Globally, and particularly in Nigeria, humanitarian needs are increasing due to synergy drivers such as climate change, economic uncertainty, health emergencies, demographic changes and conflict. These issues not only increase the demand for aid but also complicate response efforts. When multiple risks occur simultaneously – such as conflict, forced displacement and natural disasters – the outcomes worsen significantly, and the most vulnerable suffer the most. To address these compounded risks, the HCT has adopted new approaches that include preparedness and anticipatory action to get ahead of predictable shocks and reduce their humanitarian impact, potentially offering up to a sevenfold cost saving compared to post-disaster responses. This involves linking rapid response mechanisms with flexible, shock-responsive and alert based programming to enable quick reallocation of resources and the scaling-up of efforts.
High-risk locations have been identified for key shocks such as flooding, conflict, and cholera outbreaks. To optimize the use of risk information, there is a pressing need to strengthen pooled funding mechanisms, such as the Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) and the Nigeria Humanitarian Fund (NHF), Nigeria’s own country-based pooled fund. Establishing a flexible financial and rapid response mechanism, distinct from traditional project funds, would enable the timely disbursement of resources and mobilization of action based on forecasts of critical needs. This approach would allow for replenishment based on risk assessments of future impacts, thereby enhancing the ability to respond swiftly and effectively to emerging and escalating crises.Since 2024, based on a robust risk analysis and risk-informed humanitarian response planning, increased readiness and anticipatory and early response have already been directly integrated in activity planning and costing for the multi-sector response. For 2025, the humanitarian community in Nigeria will take operational planning for predictable risks one step further, advancing its rapid response mechanism (RRM) to proactively address crises with an innovative, flexible approach that adapts to early warning triggers. This revamped RRM – the anticipatory and rapid response mechanism (A-RRM) – will leverage risk-based planning and insights from 2024 as well as learning from recent flood response pilots to offer a standardized, multi-layered response package.
Compound risk –Conflict, floods and cholera
From July to October, the BAY states face a critical period where the interplay of floods, conflict, cholera risks and economic instability intensifies humanitarian needs. Conflict and natural disasters (especially floods) are the main drivers of displacement and suffering. The decade-long conflict has displaced over 4 million people. Flooding has a massive impact: it destroys and damages homes and public infrastructure like schools and health facilities, pollutes water systems, and displaces hundreds of thousands of people. Historical data shows that, on average, 520,000 people are at risk of floods each year in the most affected areas. In 2024 alone, about 400,000 individuals in MMC and Jere were temporarily displaced by floods and urgently needed assistance. Recurrent cholera outbreaks worsen the situation; by mid-September 2024, over 1,875 cases were reported across the BAY states, mostly in Adamawa (with twice the national case-fatality rate). Utilizing innovation, science and technology – such as advanced weather forecasting, historical analysis, satellite imagery, applied data science and lessons from early-response pilots – can help predict, plan and respond more effectively to crises.
Anticipatory and proactive approaches
Humanitarian partners are working with the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMET), the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA), the Nigeria Emergency Management agency (NEMA) and the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs to develop systems and approaches to enable anticipatory action. By implementing risk-informed, pre-agreed trigger mechanisms for floods, epidemics and conflict-induced displacement, they can act swiftly when forecasts indicate imminent threats For 2025, humanitarian partners will leverage the enhanced RRM – the A-RRM – towards proactive operational
approaches.
The A-RRM’s operations will be three-pronged:
- The A-RRM’s anticipatory actions will be triggered through alerts, issued from a dedicated early warning system, and following specific activation protocols defined and pre-agreed by the Anticipatory Action Working Group and the Inter-Sector Coordination Group.
- The A-RRM’s rapid response will be activated to deliver critical multisectoral life-saving assistance to the most vulnerable communities living in areas with complex access challenges, when there are no actors on the ground or when they cannot respond due to inadequate capacity (e.g. the limited presence of partners, lags in procurement and transport lead times, and pipeline breaks).
- The A-RRM will also be mobilized to scale up ongoing response in the event of a large-scale crisis (e.g. outbreak or disasters) or severe deterioration where needs exceed existing response capacities.
After the first-line response, A-RRM partners will hand over the operation to existing humanitarian actors in the area through coordination with the ISCG and relevant sectors. Preparedness actions will include prepositioning RRM core-relief kits in strategic hotspots, delivering early warning messages, initiating cash-based interventions, conducting vaccination efforts and mapping essential services, among other activities. If a crisis occurs, the A-RRM serves as the first line of defence, providing immediate assistance within the first 72 hours.
This harmonized approach, standardized across all partners, boosts efficiency by reducing duplication and ensuring resources are used effectively. Key elements for success include increasing engagement in anticipatory action to cover more people, working closely with the government to integrate these practices, and paying greater attention to compounding risks. Establishing an operational framework for anticipatory action is crucial to institutionalizing these approaches within the humanitarian system and ensuring a more effective response to future crises.