Nigeria 2025 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan / Humanitarian response

2.5 Planning Assumptions, Operational Capacity and Access, and Response Trends

Planning assumptions

Despite the significant challenges listed above, a fully funded HNRP for Nigeria in 2025 is operationally feasible. Proactive measures, establishing early warning systems, and supporting affected communities, will help reduce vulnerabilities resulting from recurring shocks. With adequate funding and strong coordination among humanitarian actors, the HNRP is poised to contribute to the alleviation of suffering, improve resilience and, ultimately, save lives.

Key planning assumptions for 2025 include securing timely and sufficient funding, ensuring safe access to vulnerable populations – even in conflict-affected areas – and fostering strong collaboration among international agencies, NGOs and local partners. By anticipating risks and acting swiftly, scalable, proactive planning and targeted interventions can be implemented. With these strategies, the HNRP is expected to effectively address humanitarian needs, strengthen community resilience and save lives across Nigeria.

2025 planning assumption capacity access and response trends

Operational capacity

The humanitarian operational capacity has been strengthened by a significant increase in national and local NGOs, who now comprise 61 per cent of partners involved in the humanitarian response. This growth reflects the HCT’s commitment to localization. Local partners – many operating in hard-to-reach areas – are crucial in providing assistance and protection to the most vulnerable populations. Their deep-rooted relationships with local communities enable them to quickly identify needs and deliver aid effectively, even in areas close to the front lines. While the number of international NGOs has decreased to 32, their collaboration with 13 government partners and 7 UN agencies across 65 LGAs enhances the collective reach and impact of the response.

One key assumption regarding funding is that we cannot realistically expect to be fully funded to reach the target. Another important assumption is that during 2025 and subsequent years, gains will be made in improving the efficiency of operations so that limited resources can stretch further. This includes a reduction in transaction costs, efficiency gains from localization, a further shift to cash and vouchers where possible, and potentially expanding common pipelines. It is also assumed that a shift to anticipatory action will yield additional efficiency improvements. With regards to the people in need and resources, a central assumption is that development interventions, such as solutions for IDPs, will reduce overall humanitarian needs. Moreover, it is anticipated that a greater degree of government leadership and resources will be allocated for humanitarian and development efforts.

To reinforce coordination, the HCT and ISCG will continue to strengthen structures at the sub-national level. This includes utilizing state-level focal points supported by sectors such as WASH, food security, education, shelter and NFIs, camp coordination and camp management, health, nutrition, and protection. Thematic working groups provide additional advice and support to ensure a cohesive approach. Despite challenges in 2024, such as limited staff access to many LGAs – restricted to key towns accessible only by UNHAS helicopter due to funding shortages for rotary-wing operations – the plan for 2025 anticipates maintaining a robust network of partners. Each organization contributes unique capacities, strengthening the overall effectiveness of the humanitarian effort and ensuring aid reaches those most in need.

Access constraints and challenges

Notable humanitarian access constraints in the BAY states include a marked increase in attacks by NSAGs targeting civilians. This escalation has led to a sharp rise in civilian casualties, particularly among those engaged in farming and livelihood activities outside garrison towns. Additionally, an increase in the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) has resulted in significant civilian fatalities. Main supply routes and secondary roads remain insecure, frequently obstructed by IEDs and illegal vehicle checkpoints where civilians are at risk of robbery, abduction or even death. Humanitarian personnel, supplies and assets continues to be at risk.

Only a few locations (southern Borno, central and southern Adamawa, western Yobe) and secondary towns near Maiduguri are readily accessible by road. Some NGOs rely on a very low-profile approach, using unmarked vehicles and local staff with community ties to access challenging areas in Borno. Most NGOs, however, depend on humanitarian flights to move between towns, underscoring the critical role of the United Nations Humanitarian Air Service (UNHAS). They also depend on the use of the humanitarian hubs in remote locations in Borno.

Weather and climatic shocks continue to adversely impact logistical access in the BAY states. The early and heavy onset of the rainy season washed away roads, bridges and dams, flooding large areas of Borno, displacing thousands of households, isolating towns and villages, and impeding the movement of humanitarian cargo to affected populations.

Additionally, bureaucratic impediments continue to hamper humanitarian efforts. This includes the need for registering or reregistering NGOs and obtaining work permits and visas, which involve lengthy processes. The complexity of regulations poses ongoing challenges, especially evident in flood response operations. Likewise, anti-terrorism legislation also creates potential restrictions for many partners. Meanwhile, Borno State authorities continue the closure of IDP camps in towns, relocating displaced persons to extremely remote and difficult-to- access areas, leaving many partners unable to provide humanitarian assistance.

2025 humanitarian access severity mapping for international organisations

Northeast Nigeria: 2025 humanitarian access severity mapping for international organizations

Response trends

Since 2016, the severity of the humanitarian situation in the BAY states has fluctuated, with the number of people in need peaking at 10.6 million in 2020 before stabilizing at around 8 million in recent years. While funding require to meet humanitarian need have grown significantly, the corresponding funding received has not kept pace, leading to persistent gaps in addressing critical needs. Despite an increase in partner presence – averaging 96 partners from 2016 to 2024 and peaking at 132 in 2024 – the number of projects has declined sharply to 151 from 237 in 2023.

2025 targeted reached trend

A particularly concerning trend has been the declining proportion of people reached compared to those targeted. In 2018, for example, 97 per cent of those targeted were reached, but this proportion has steadily declined over time. In 2022, 85 per cent of the targeted population was reached, dropping to 69 per cent in 2023, and 64 percent in 2024 – significantly below the scale of need. This trend highlights the growing challenges in translating targeted plans into effective response action, driven by limited resources, funding shortfalls and operational constraints.

There is an urgent need to diversify humanitarian funding, including finding new and innovative ways of mobilizing resources and improving the efficiency of humanitarian action, especially considering that the cost per beneficiary has increased from $214 in 2024 to more than $252 in 2025—by far the highest in the region—along with strengthened partner capacity and efficient resource allocation to address the humanitarian crisis in the BAY states.