Objectives
North-east Nigeria is currently hosting 25,104 registered refugees and asylum seekers from neighbouring countries, including Cameroon, Niger and Chad. Additionally, the region has also welcomed asylum seekers from other countries, such as Sudan and CAR. Insecurity due to the presence of non-state armed groups (NSAG) in the far north of Cameroon and the Zinder and Diffa regions of the Niger Republic is expected to persist in 2025. It is predicted that both Cameroon and the Niger Republic may be unable to increase their military interventions to combat NSAG activities in these areas neighboring Nigeria. As a result, the displacement of refugees and asylum seekers will likely continue into Nigeria's north-east region.
Additionally, 2025 is an election year in Cameroon, and the outcome is unpredictable, potentially leading to conflicts if the election is not peaceful. In the Niger Republic, the military junta continues to rule and is expected to continue doing so in 2025, with no established timeline for a transition to civilian governance.
The military junta in the Niger Republic prioritizes internal security, which may limit their ability to contribute meaningful security forces to the Multinational Joint Task Force. This vacuum could create more operational space for NSAGs along the borders between Nigeria and the Niger Republic. Based on the current trends of influx in 2024 and the backlog of asylum seekers who have yet to be registered, it is projected that some 28,314 asylum seekers will arrive in the north-east. Therefore, in 2025, approximately 54,249 refugees and asylum seekers will need support in Borno, Adamawa and Yobe States in north-east Nigeria.
The overall objective of the refugee and asylum seeker plan is to provide multisectoral, life-saving emergency assistance where needed to enhance the self-reliance of refugees and asylum seekers under the overall leadership of the Government of Nigeria.
The specific objectives are as follows:
- Provide multisectoral, life-saving humanitarian assistance to refugees and asylum seekers.
- Identify, prioritize and provide targeted services for persons with specific needs and vulnerable persons.
- Ensure durable solutions are considered from the onset of the emergency, alongside crises-affected people’s views and experiences.
Response strategy
The refugee and asylum seeker response plan will target 54,200 people, of whom over 68 per cent are residing in Adamawa State. As with the IDP and host community response, the refugee response strategy is multisectoral.
Response activities will be divided into two phases as follows:
Phase 1 prioritizes emergency and life-saving needs for 28,314 new arrivals and newly registered refugees; and Phase 2 focuses on community-level engagement as longer-term solutions are pursued for refugees, asylum seekers and other crises-affected people, targeting some 25,104 individuals that have undergone Level 2 registration by UNHCR. Activities in Phase 1 will target locations with new arrivals of refugees and asylum seekers in the northernmost LGAs of Adamawa State (Mubi South, Mubi North, Michika, Madagali, Maiha), Geidam in Yobe State, and Mobbar and Monguno LGAs in Borno State. Working with the Government, development organizations, donors and the private sector, Phase 2 will be implemented in locations where refugees, asylum seekers and IDP returnees will settle together in host communities.
Cost of response
The estimated cost of the multisector refugee response in 2025 is $31.5 million, a 59 per cent increase compared to 2024. This budget includes the following allocations: $13.1 million for food, $1.3 million for nutrition services, $1.5 million for camp coordination and camp management (CCCM), $4.7 million for shelter and non-food items (NFI) assistance, $1.9 million for water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH), $2.2 million for health services, $1.7 million for education, and $4.6 million for protection.
UNHCR and partners used an activity-based costing methodology to determine the response budget, recognizing that many needs are multisectoral. The cost-per-beneficiary ranges from $35 to $429, depending on the type of assistance and method of intervention. The minimum expenditure basket, central to the budgeting process, amounts to N72,720 per household (N12,120 per individual).
Key factors influencing these costs include high inflation rates, the depreciation of the naira against the dollar, and rising fuel prices. Additionally, most refugees and asylum seekers reside in border areas of northern Adamawa State (particularly in the LGAs of Mubi North and South, Michika, Mahia and Madagali) and Borno State (especially Mobbar LGA); therefore, considerations related to security, transportation and accessibility have been factored into the costs of activities in these regions.
To align with the Global Compact on Refugees, efforts will be made to create connections with long-term recovery and development activities. This includes the integration of refugees and asylum seekers into plans outlined in the United Nations Sustainable Development Cooperation Framework (UNSDCF) 2023-2027 as well as state and local government development plans. Collaboration with local and state authorities will be prioritized to provide services through national systems whenever possible. The interventions will strengthen these systems and local capacities to benefit both refugees and host communities. Collaboration with development partners such as the World Bank, IFC, donors and private sector organizations will be pursued to ensure sustainability.
Monitoring
UNHCR and partners will monitor the refugee response by using a list of indicators tailored to individual sector activities, including those specific to gender and age. Needs assessments will be conducted through an age, gender and diversity (AGD) lens, and responding agencies will also implement remote monitoring. Ongoing protection and border monitoring will help identify emerging protection needs and highlight any gaps in assistance.