Myanmar Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan 2025 / Part 1: Humanitarian Needs Overview

1.1 Crisis Overview

“All of a sudden, there was an ear-shattering noise, and dust clouded everything in my vision and hearing. It all happened at the speed of light. When I became conscious of my surroundings, our house was hit and destroyed by the shell, and most tragically, my wife and second son were no longer alive.”

– Man from a village in Kayah.

The humanitarian crisis in Myanmar is fuelled by escalating conflict, disasters, epidemics, widespread explosive ordnance and landmine contamination, and economic collapse. Amid these shocks, the security environment continues to deteriorate, people are facing grave protection threats, and coping capacities are stretched to the limit.

Myanmar ranked as the second most conflict-ridden country globally in the first half of 2024. It also ranked as the fourth most dangerous country for civilians, with 43 per cent of the population exposed to conflict. Since the military takeover in February 2021, the conflict between the Myanmar Armed Forces (MAF) and various armed groups has directly impacted 12 out of 15 regions and states. A new wave of fighting was ignited in October 2023 when the Three Brotherhood Alliance launched a coordinated offensive against the military and its allies, known as “Operation 1027.” Since then, the intensity of fighting across Myanmar has continued to escalate, with civilians bearing the brunt of the increasing levels of violence.

The conflict has driven people to flee their homes and livelihoods in record numbers. It is estimated that almost 3.5 million people across Myanmar are displaced, approximately one-third of them children. Within a year, the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Myanmar increased by more than 70 per cent with many of them having been displaced multiple times. Among displaced people assessed in the 2024 Multi-Sectoral Needs Assessment (MSNA), 46 per cent had been displaced two to five times and 24 per cent more than five times since the February 2021 takeover. A total of 45 per cent of assessed IDP-returnee households reported that they expected to be displaced again within the next 30 days. Only around 15 per cent of IDPs are in sites/camps managed by Camp Coordination and Camp Management (CCCM) structures. Many displaced people remain in temporary shelters, informal camps or jungles, where they face severe shortages of food, clean water, protection assistance and healthcare.

In addition to those displaced within the country, more than 1.3 million people from Myanmar have sought refuge in neighbouring countries, making this a regional crisis that demands urgent attention. The conflict in Myanmar has far-reaching consequences beyond its borders, fuelling human and drug trafficking and disease outbreaks, all of which require immediate international support.

Protection concerns are rampant with increasingly brutal violence, movement restrictions, and threats from explosive ordnances. There are frequent reports of civilian casualties, including children, due to armed clashes involving airstrikes and shelling, even in residential areas. There are also widespread reports of arbitrary arrests and detention as well as forceful recruitment into security forces and different armed groups. Nearly 28,000 people reportedly were arrested between February 2021 and December 2024, and more than 21,000 were detained at the time of reporting. Grave violations against children are increasing due to conflict, creating a dire situation for children across Myanmar. Non-displaced stateless people, including Rohingya, face additional risks and vulnerabilities; lacking civil documentation, they are particularly exposed to violence, arrest, or kidnapping. Widespread conflict, recurrent climatic disasters and economic crisis led to unprecedented levels of food insecurity with 15.2 million facing acute food insecurity.

People in need and displacement trends

Security incidents in 2024

The Rohingya crisis

Rohingya people are among the most vulnerable populations in Myanmar, having endured decades of violence, systemic discrimination, and persecution. An estimated 634,000 Rohingya remain in Rakhine State, while close to 1 million have taken refuge in Bangladesh. Of those still in Rakhine, around 141,000 have lived in IDP camps in Kyaukpyu, Kyauktaw, Myebon, Pauktaw and Sittwe townships since the 2012 inter-communal conflict. Another 107,000 have been displaced by clashes between the MAF and Arakan Army between 2019 and 2024. The lack of documentation among Rohingya in both camps and villages severely hampers their freedom of movement, often leading to detention, extortion, and exploitation when traveling, leaving them at constant risk of harassment and abuse.

The ongoing conflict between the MAF and Arakan Army continues to exert significant pressure on the Rohingya, particularly in northern Rakhine. Multiple parties have imposed demands for taxation and militia recruitment on the population. While the administrative structure under the Arakan Army remains unclear, concerns persist regarding the future and fundamental human rights of the Rohingya in Rakhine. The deterioration in political and conflict dynamics have driven many Rohingya to seek safety and better livelihoods abroad, including through recent movements to Bangladesh.

Mine and ERW casualties in 2024

Health Incidents

The proliferation of landmines and explosive ordnance in Myanmar has reached critical levels, with incidents reported in all regions and states of the country by the third quarter of 2024. In the first nine months of the year, 889 casualties were recorded nationwide, representing 85 per cent of the total casualties reported in 2023. In 2023, Myanmar recorded the highest number of landmine and explosive ordnance casualties globally with 1,052 casualties recorded nationwide, with Sagaing, which has the largest number of IDPs, bearing the highest casualty rate, followed by Shan and Bago. Children under 18 years of age made up 21 per cent of the total casualties in 2023, underscoring the disproportionate impact on vulnerable people. The increased presence of landmines in residential and rural areas has significantly heightened risks to civilians and is a critical concern. Lack of access to functional health facilities for life-saving treatment is leading to unnecessary loss of life and further burden on an already weak health system. Between 1 January and 6 December 2024, a total of 287 attacks on Myanmar's health care system were recorded.

Since February 2021, the State Administration Council (SAC) has continued to extend the state of emergency and introduced martial law in over 60 townships. A dormant conscription law activated in February 2024 has triggered widespread fear and uncertainty across Myanmar, particularly among young people. Fear over forced conscription by the MAF, as well as forced recruitment by other parties to the conflict, has driven large numbers of people, male youth and young men in particular, to seek safety in neighbouring countries and internally in different parts of the country. In October 2024, a population and household census was conducted in SAC-controlled areas, with indications that this was being carried out in preparation for elections in 2025.

The crisis has severely and uniquely affected women, girls, and lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender persons. Many have been forced to resort to negative coping mechanisms due to displacement, financial distress, and the lack of access to basic social services such as education and health care, including mental health care. This has only increased their vulnerability to violence, human trafficking, early or forced marriage, mental health disorders and sexual exploitation and sexual abuse. The combination of physical impairments and poor communication infrastructure have created additional barriers for persons with disabilities from having access to livelihoods, information and services, including education, protection services, food, non-food items (NFIs), and healthcare.

Myanmar ranks among the top three countries most affected by extreme weather events globally, according to the latest Global Climate Risk Index. The country is highly vulnerable to climate shocks such as cyclones and monsoon floods. One year after being struck by the devastating Cyclone Mocha in 2023, Myanmar was hit by severe flooding in July and September 2024 due to remnants of monsoon rains and Typhoon Yagi respectively. The floods affected nearly all regions and states, impacting more than 1 million people, including many already displaced by conflict in the Northwest, Rakhine, and the Southeast. Between July and September, 26 percent of Myanmar’s cropland was flooded. The floods caused widespread devastation, submerging thousands of crops, farmlands, and livestock, leading to substantial losses in the livelihoods of affected communities. Both the direct and indirect impact of flooding, through the significant risk of disease outbreaks such as acute watery diarrhoea (AWD) and cholera, are further exacerbating the hardships faced by vulnerable populations, highlighting the compounded impact of natural hazards and disasters on an already worsening humanitarian crisis.

Amid the widespread conflict, poverty is deepening, hard-won development gains have been reversed, and the situation continues to worsen. Multiple negative shocks have brought poverty headcounts, depth, and severity in Myanmar back to levels last seen in 2015. The increase in poverty has been especially pronounced in conflict-affected areas, including Kayah, Kayin, Rakhine, and Sagaing. Livelihoods have been harshly impacted, with a decline of 7.4 percentage points in the employment rate since 2017. Between 2017 and 2023, Myanmar experienced significant rural and urban poverty as agricultural employment in rural areas dropped from 43 to 34 per cent, while urban wage earners and job quality sharply declined by approximately 10 per cent, particularly affecting educated persons. Many people face a daily struggle with shortages of electricity, food, fuel, and other essential items such as medicines.

Before the military takeover, Myanmar was one of the fastest-growing South-East Asian economies, but forecasts are grim and its economy is not expected to return to even pre-pandemic levels within this decade. A real gross domestic product growth is anticipated to slow from 1.9 per cent in 2023/24 to 1.4 per cent in 2024/25, significantly below the steady expansion of 6‑7 per cent seen in the 2010s. Civilians have been further impacted by substantial inflation amid sharp currency depreciation. Conflict along key trade routes and closed official international border crossings affect the availability of goods.

Between the second quarters of 2023 and 2024, Myanmar experienced a sharp rise in diet costs, with the cost of a healthy diet increasing by 40 percent and a common diet by 41 percent. This surge was largely driven by a 54 percent increase in the median price of rice, the country’s primary staple food. The impact of food price inflation was particularly severe in conflict-affected states, where the cost of a common diet rose by 81 percent in Rakhine, 61 percent in Chin, and 48 percent in Kachin over the same period. By the second quarter of 2024, both healthy and common diet costs were highest in Rakhine, followed closely by Chin, reflecting the compounded effects of ongoing conflict and economic instability in these regions.

Myanmar timeline of events

References

  1. Myanmar: Mid-year metrics 2024, ACLED, June 2024
  2. UNHCR 2024 Mid-Year Trends, p.17
  3. 2024 MSNA
  4. UNHCR data portal. Accessed on 8 December 2024.
  5. Assistance Association for Political Prisoners. Accessed on 22 October 2024.
  6. Report of the Secretary-General on the situation of human rights of Rohingya Muslims and other minorities in Myanmar covering the period from 15 August 2023 to 31 July 2024.
  7. UNHCR Operational Data Portal, Myanmar
  8. Myanmar Landmine/ERW Incidents Information (Jan-June 2024), UNICEF, 6 August 2024
  9. Myanmar Landmine/ERW Incident Information 2024 (Q3), UNICEF Myanmar
  10. Landmine Monitor 2023
  11. Myanmar Landmine/ERW Incidents Information, Factsheet 2023, UNICEF, 5 June 2024
  12. https://insecurityinsight.org/projects/healthcare
  13. OHCHR Press Release, 21 February 2024
  14. InterAction, 8 July 2024
  15. Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar; Courage amid crisis: gendered impacts of the coup and the pursuit of gender equality in Myanmar, July 2024
  16. Global Climate Risk Index 2021
  17. Flood Situation Report 3, OCHA, 27 September 2024
  18. FAO satellite images analysis
  19. Development Reversed: Poverty and Labor Markets in Myanmar, World Bank, May 2024
  20. Development Reversed: Poverty and Labor Markets in Myanmar, World Bank, May 2024
  21. Development Reversed: Poverty and Labor Markets in Myanmar, World Bank, May 2024
  22. Myanmar Economic Monitor, World Bank, June 2024
  23. Economist five-year forecast: Myanmar, July 2024
  24. Economist five-year forecast: Myanmar, July 2024
  25. Economist five-year forecast: Myanmar, July 2024
  26. Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: The rising costs of diets and declining purchasing power of casual wage laborers: December 2021–June 2024, IFPRI, September 2024