Myanmar Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan 2025 / Part 1: Humanitarian Needs Overview

1.2 Analysis of Shocks, Risks and Humanitarian Needs

“We had already gotten used to the constant sounds of shooting and knew to run indoors to escape the crossfire. But landmine explosions happening right in our neighbourhoods make us feel like there is no safe place anymore.”

– A 14-year-old IDP who lost his right leg in a landmine explosion in southern Shan.

SUMMARY OF NEEDS

Food insecurity

Food insecurity remains of high concern with some households reporting to have large food consumption gaps, particularly IDPs and non-displaced stateless people. This is further exacerbated by disruptions to food production, including the loss of productive assets, access to farmland, and availability of agricultural inputs.

Negative coping mechanisms

People are resorting to negative coping mechanisms, especially IDPs and stateless people including children with high rates of child labour and early marriage reported, disproportionally increasing mental health disorders and raising concerns over their ability to withstand additional shocks.

Limited access to formal education

Access to formal education is particularly constrained amongst IDPs, returnees and non-displaced stateless people.

Health system collapse

The health system is in collapse and support is needed for vulnerable people with medical needs, particularly for non-displaced stateless households.

Increased risk of disease outbreaks

Increased risk of disease outbreaks including cholera because of inadequate access to safe water and sanitation, with WASH needs being highest among non-displaced stateless people and IDPs.

Shelter needs

Shelter needs are high in Rakhine, Kachin, Northwest, and Southeast with half of all IDPs having inadequate shelter arrangements.

Protection threats

Protection threats are severe as a result of conflict, violence, harassment, detention, explosive hazards, and discrimination/ persecution. These protection threats disproportionately affect children and other vulnerable groups.

Difficulty meeting basic needs

Many households faced challenges in meeting all of their basic needs, with their current situation exposing them to further protection risks and human rights violation.

Shocks, impacts and people affected

More than a third of the entire population of Myanmar – a staggering 19.9 million people – will need humanitarian assistance in 2025. This includes 6.3 million children whose future has been upended by a combination of shocks. Expanding conflict, widespread explosive ordnance and landmine contamination, climatic disasters, disease outbreaks and economic collapse are all critical shocks contributing to the spiralling humanitarian crisis in Myanmar. The impact has been devastating for vast swathes of the population, who are faced with alarming levels of food insecurity, a health system in collapse, interrupted education, and soaring protection risks.

The extensive nature of the shocks and its related impacts informed the decision of the Humanitarian Country Team (HCT) to maintain a scope of analysis that covers the entire country. Findings from the country-wide MSNA revealed that an overwhelming majority of assessed households face challenges in meeting all of their basic needs. Conflict is a key driver of protection needs, with assessed households in conflict-affected areas reporting heightened levels of security-related movement restrictions, and a majority being affected by explosive ordnances. Food insecurity remains of high concern with some households reporting large food consumption gaps, particularly IDPs and non-displaced stateless people. The majority of children aged 6-23 months in all population groups do not meet the minimum required frequency and diversity of food received to support a healthy growth. One in ten households had to skip a meal due to the lack of money or resources. The situation is further exacerbated by disruptions to agricultural activities, with many households losing access to productive assets, farmland, and essential inputs such as seeds and fertilizers. The latest Data in Emergencies Monitoring report found that 67 per cent of rural households who were engaged in farming reported production difficulties due to conflict, climatic disasters, and rising prices. Conflict dynamics constrained children’s access to formal schooling across the country in 2024, with more than half of assessed IDP, returnee and non-displaced stateless children reporting to not have attended formal schooling in the 2023-24 school year, largely due to conflict-induced school closures. The health system is in crisis with large parts of the population not able to access basic health care, particularly among non-displaced stateless households. Shelter needs are particularly high in Rakhine, Kachin, Northwest, and Southeast with half of all assessed IDPs having inadequate shelter arrangements. Water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) needs are highest among non-displaced stateless people and IDPs, with insufficient water quantity and quality as well as sanitation facilities. Disruption of early disease detection and immunization services pose a significant risk for deadly disease outbreaks with risks for regional impact. Amid these deepening needs, people are resorting to negative coping mechanisms, especially IDPs and stateless people.

People in Need

The 2025 HNRP focuses on meeting the needs of the same four population groups as the 2024 HNRP:

  1. IDPs
  2. Returned, resettled, and locally integrated IDPs
  3. Non-displaced stateless people (Rohingya make up almost all of this group of stateless people in Myanmar)
  4. Other crisis-affected people with humanitarian needs

More details on these population groups are available in the methodology section in Annex 4.1.

The overall number of people in need, 19.9 million, is a modest increase from 2024 by 1.3 million or 7 per cent, but within that figure the categories of people in need have significantly shifted. The number of people in need who are IDPs is expected to rise from three million to four million, a drastic 33 per cent increase. This means that among the four population groups (IDPs, IDP returnees, non-displaced stateless people, and other crisis-affected people with humanitarian needs), many people in need who were previously in non-displaced categories are now displaced, leading to an increase in vulnerability and severity of need.

Due to the widespread escalation of the conflict since October 2023, the overall number of crisis-affected people with humanitarian needs has increased. The highest number of people displaced are in regions and states such as eastern Bago, Kachin, Kayin, Mandalay, Rakhine, Sagaing, and Tanintharyi.

Severity of needs

The main driver of the increase in needs severity is the escalation of conflict since October 2023 and the resulting destruction of regular services (such as health, education and communications) in the affected areas. There is a high number of townships in the highest category of needs severity (level 5, catastrophic) across many regions and states; including 14 in Sagaing, 5 in Kachin, 4 in Kayin, and 4 in Magway. The catastrophic need severity level signifies extreme conditions where urgent, life-saving assistance is required to prevent widespread suffering and it indicates a complete breakdown of essential services, with most of the affected population facing immediate, life-threatening risks. In Rakhine, 82 per cent of townships are in the catastrophic severity level, which is a 58 per cent increase from the previous year.

Based on the intersectoral needs severity analysis, all non-displaced stateless people are in the catastrophic severity level. A total of 63 per cent of IDPs and 39 per cent of IDP returnees are also in the catastrophic severity level. The sectors mostly driving the highest level of needs severity are Protection, Shelter (85 townships each), and WASH (17 townships).

Need severity slightly improved in select urban areas that are not significantly affected by the conflict, such as Ayeyarwady, Nay Pyi Taw, and Yangon.


Seasonality of events

Seasonal Events

Humanitarian outlook and risks

In the INFORM Risk for 2025, Myanmar ranks 11th out of 191 countries, with a “very high” risk classification driven by extremely high scores for hazards and conflict intensity. If the current trajectory is not reversed, the humanitarian situation in Myanmar is expected to remain extremely dire and further deteriorate in 2025.

Likely evolution of the humanitarian context during the planning period
  • Further escalation and intensification of conflict, with potentially increased fragmentation of the country. Worsening conditions and increased forced migration.
  • Rising displacement rates and complex movement patterns, including cross-border displacement. Limited returns overall, with more significant returns in stabilized areas.
  • Fragmentation will complicate access negotiations and delivery of aid. Increasing challenges for local actors. More NGOs are expected to face security challenges.
  • Continued deterioration in food security, with rising prices and limited access. Higher impact on vulnerable groups and increased use of negative coping mechanisms.
  • Continued economic decline with increasing inflation and unemployment. Adoption of negative coping strategies likely to increase further.​
  • Escalating protection risks and concerns, especially in hard-to-reach conflict areas.
  • Impact of worsening climatedisasters and epidemics likely to exacerbate humanitarian needs during 2025 in absence of mitigation or control measures and erosion of communities' resilience.
  • Limited or modest development activities expected; no return to pre-takeover levels.

Affected communities’ priorities and preferences

A total of 28 focus group discussions were conducted across Myanmar between August and September 2024 to gather insights from affected populations. Among these, 54 per cent preferred cash assistance, emphasising its flexibility to meet urgent needs such as food, agricultural inputs, health, and education. However, challenges like inflation and limited market access reduced its effectiveness in some areas. Meanwhile, 17 per cent favoured in-kind assistance, particularly in regions facing inflation, transportation difficulties, and limited market access, such as parts of Magway and Rakhine. In these areas, communities stressed the importance of receiving essential items directly, such as food, agricultural inputs, shelter materials, and hygiene kits. Mixed preferences were highlighted in regions like Kachin and Kayin, where flexibility was crucial, but certain in-kind goods remained indispensable. The overall findings underscore the need for a flexible, tailored approach to humanitarian assistance that can address the specific needs of each region while ensuring that aid remains effective and inclusive.

References

  1. Data in Emergencies – Monitoring the Impacts of Shocks to Agricultural Livelihoods and Food Security in Myanmar, Round 10, FAO-WFP, October 2024