Myanmar Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan 2025 / Part 4: Annexes

4.1 Methodology

The whole country is included in the geographic scope of the humanitarian situation analysis for Myanmar in 2025. As in previous years and in adherence to global guidance, the severity and number of people in need of humanitarian assistance in 2025 was calculated using the Joint and Intersectoral Analysis Framework. This approach ensures that inter-sectoral linkages and compounding effects are acknowledged and reflected alongside sector-specific needs and severities. The analysis was undertaken at the township level, which was at times challenging given the lack of availability of granular data at this administrative level. The analysis and presentation of needs in this HNRP aims to reflect the mainstreaming of inclusive and quality programming in the response, with AAP, gender, disability, GBV, human rights, protection, PSEA, and other cross-cutting considerations woven in.

JIAF 2

The Joint and Intersectoral Analysis Framework process was conducted through the Needs Monitoring and Analysis Working Group under the ICCG and included technical and information management focal points from each cluster, as well as MIMU. Analysed data sources include both nationwide assessments and cluster-specific surveys and data collection, such as the 2024 MSNA and a Food-Security & Nutrition Analysis, which allows for comparisons of the food-security situation since 2021 and is more aligned with global best practice.

More granular data on displacement trends was also analysed, especially regarding recurring displacement. Akin to 2024, a projection approach was taken to estimate the number of IDPs in 2025, instead of relying upon the static number of IDPs at the point of HNRP publication. This was achieved through analysis of movement trends (stock/flow) in the Population Movement Tracker and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees Statistical Report, combined with the scenarios and assumptions underlying the 2025 HNRP, expert opinion, and a severity scale analysis of displacement drivers, trends, conflict data and presence of armed groups.

For the four population groups under this HNRP, calculations were based on:

  • IDPs: Projection of new and protracted IDPs, including displaced stateless people, people living in camps, camp-like settings and informal sites, and people who are re-displaced.
  • Returned, resettled, and locally integrated IDPs: Projection of new and past returned IDPs in need of ongoing assistance.
  • Non-displaced stateless people: Baseline data of Rohingya people living in their own villages.
  • Other crisis-affected people with humanitarian needs: Baseline data estimated using a combination of vulnerabilities, including people affected by climatic disasters, IDP host communities; people living in high conflict areas with restricted access to basic services; people with severe protection needs; non-displaced people in moderate or severe food insecurity or facing malnutrition; and people affected by other severe shocks unable to support their own survival.

Where data gaps remain, best practice proxy indicators were used.

Education

The total number of school-aged children was estimated based on the baseline population dataset for 2025. The indicators for the people in need (PiN) calculation, while in line with Global Education Cluster’s guideline, were adapted to the country’s specific context. The key indicators were based on the four key dimensions of access to learning, learning conditions, protected environment, and individual aggravating circumstances. For the fourth dimension (individual aggravating circumstances), child labour, child marriage and protection on the way to and from school were considered the extreme sectoral deprivations (severity level 4), while children recruited into armed groups is considered a sectoral collapse (severity level 5). Educators are comprised of a combination of teachers and school administrative personnel. For them, the Inter-Agency Network for Education in Emergencies Minimum Standards for teacher to learner ratios were used.

To obtain information on the children’s circumstances, the 2024 MSNA was used for an evidence-based PiN calculation. The assessment had countrywide coverage and included four population groups. The gender distribution was based on the 2024 population baseline with females comprising 52 per cent of the total population and males 48 per cent.

Food Security

The Food Security Cluster's (FSC) comprehensive needs analysis for 2025 builds upon multiple evidence streams to determine the 15.2 million people food insecure and in need of food assistance. The FSC methodology integrates both quantitative and qualitative data, with particular emphasis on the September 2024 Food Security & Nutrition Analysis that revealed phase 4 conditions (Emergency) across Chin, Kachin, Rakhine, and Sagaing. The analysis particularly focuses on the complex needs of the 2.3 million people classified under phase 4 and 229,000 IDPs at risk of sliding from phase 2 (Stress) into phase 3 (Crisis) if food assistance halts. The FSC analytical framework employs standard food security indicators while incorporating critical contextual factors from the July-October 2024 flood assessments across the Northwest, Rakhine and Southeast. This is supplemented by quarterly market monitoring data, providing real-time insights into market functionality and access constraints. They also benefit from various analysis undertaken by partners, besides regular rapid assessments also shared by partners. Protection and gender considerations are fundamental to the FSC methodology, integrating age and gender analysis throughout the assessment process. Environmental impact assessments and local partner consultations ensure the sustainability of the response. This multi-faceted approach enables the FSC to capture both immediate humanitarian needs and underlying vulnerabilities, supporting a more nuanced targeting strategy that considers both severity and specific population group needs.

Health

To calculate the PiN, the Health Cluster used indicators provided by the Global Health Cluster, such as immunization coverage, incidence rates of key diseases such as AWD and malaria and number of births attended by skilled health workers. Nutrition and WASH indicators were also used, such as breastfeeding and access to safe water and sanitation. Target groups are people in need of health care among the pre-agreed categories of IDPs, non-displaced stateless people, returned, resettled and locally integrated IDPs, as well as other crisis-affected people. The 2024 MSNA served as a crucial piece of evidence to inform the 2025 PiN. The lack of reliable and up-to-date data is recognized as a major limitation.

Nutrition

The Global Nutrition Cluster developed and endorsed a Nutrition Humanitarian Needs Analysis Calculator to estimate the PiN. Triangulation of available information contributed to the estimation of needs. This information ranged from severity classification, the Food Security & Nutrition Analysis, geographical location, the 2024 MSNA, along with contributory factors, such as the displacement tracking matrix, surveys, and expert judgement on the situation for children in the country. Myanmar’s current population per region/state was used with the Nutrition Humanitarian Needs Analysis Calculator to automatically calculate the activity-based PiN. The prevalence of past acute malnutrition results adjusted for the current situation based on expert judgement was also utilized, along with the severity classification of contributory factors such as the Food Security & Nutrition Analysis, the food consumption score, household hunger score and other factors. The target was estimated through the coverage of IDPs, returnees, and stateless persons – all at 80 per cent coverage, and other crisis-affected people with humanitarian needs at less than 20 per cent coverage. Women and children below five years are targeted due to their vulnerability along with increased protection needs during conflict.

Protection

The Protection Cluster integrated various quantitative and qualitative data sources to capture all relevant variables of need, in broad consultation with sub-national clusters and partners. Data on internal displacement was used to estimate the number of displaced people in need of protection. Analysis of information from Armed Conflict Location & Event Data provided insights into the frequency and intensity of violent incidents, correlating the need for protection services with the number of those most severely impacted by the crisis and identifying high-risk areas requiring intervention. This data was analysed along with reports from the Protection Incident Monitoring System. The 2024 MSNA highlighted specific protection vulnerabilities among displaced and marginalized groups, while an assessment of territorial control dynamics informed about access to services and associated risks. Additionally, weather severity analysis was integrated to account for the impact of climate-related risks on communities, ensuring that indicators reflected the capacity to respond to environmental challenges. Relevant gender and protection analyses were integral to informing the overall assessment. All assessments included gender-disaggregated data to capture specific vulnerabilities faced by women, girls, boys, and men. This informed targeted interventions to address unique protection risks.

Shelter/NFI/ CCCM

The methodology for identifying cluster indicators and PiN figures was data-driven, using the severity of needs to calculate the PiN. Population data was gathered through collaboration with camp management agencies, site focal points, and household-level censuses. Key informants provided valuable insights, particularly in areas with limited accessibility, helping to verify data accuracy and refine needs assessments. For disaster-affected areas, the methodology used historical data of rainfall at the township level as a proxy for cyclones and floods. The selection of cluster indicators to calculate severity of needs was based on a comprehensive analysis of diverse data sources to complement the 2024 MSNA, including sources that allowed needs severity analysis on the township level. Some of these sources included Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, IDP population data by settlement type, 5Ws, and weather severity analysis. The capacity of Cluster members in each township was a vital consideration in target setting, aligning response efforts with available resources. This approach guarantees a focused humanitarian response that upholds the dignity of IDPs and adapts to Myanmar’s evolving crisis dynamics.

WASH

The WASH Cluster’s 2025 needs assessment and PiN figures are based on critical indicators reflecting access to safe water, sanitation, hygiene, as well as disease risk factors (e.g. AWD and cholera). Indicators were chosen to capture urgent health and dignity concerns in areas impacted by displacement, disasters, and infrastructure challenges, enabling a risk-sensitive and targeted approach. Data sources include the 2024 MSNA which provided baseline data for PiN calculations. These assessments were complemented by continuous tracking of displacement, market conditions, and seasonal vulnerabilities. Gender and protection analyses were central to the methodology, highlighting access disparities, such as challenges in menstrual hygiene materials for non-displaced stateless women. This approach ensured an inclusive analysis, prioritizing equitable WASH access for all vulnerable groups.