Myanmar Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan 2025 / Part 4: Annexes

4.2 What If We Fail to Mobilize Sufficient Humanitarian Funds?

"To be honest, at this moment, I can’t even say what my hopes and goals are. My future goals are still uncertain. This is all I can say. If I continue talking about it, I might end up in tears."

– Camp resident in eastern Bago.

Severe underfunding in 2024 drastically affected the capacity of humanitarian partners to deliver life-saving aid to people who had been prioritized for urgent assistance. With only 34 per cent of the 2024 HNRP funding requirements received, partners were unable to provide the depth, frequency and quality of assistance that was planned, leaving millions of people without aid. By the end of 2024 it is estimated that humanitarian partners will have reached 3.9 million people in need at least once, representing only 74 per cent of the target. This means that 1.4 million people who had been prioritized for critical assistance received no aid at all.

The 2025 HNRP is the result of heavy prioritization to meet the most urgent needs. Without the required funds in 2025, humanitarian partners will have to prioritize further, favouring lower-cost life-saving and critical activities that do not offer the required depth of relief or contribute to people’s overall well-being, offer dignified living conditions, meet global standards, or provide a chance of finding durable solutions. Persistent unmet needs will continue having residual implications for subsequent years, with needs worsening over time and requiring more expensive and elaborate interventions in future. With prior coping capacities all but exhausted, more and more lives will be at risk.

This section outlines the consequences of underfunding and how each cluster will triage its planned response activities at different funding levels – a quarter, half, and three-quarters of requirements – to provide guidance on the most urgent cluster priorities and illustrate the consequences of underfunding for affected people. Donors are urged to carefully consider the programming realities and unaddressed suffering that results from funding gaps of the magnitude seen in 2024.

Education

If 75 per cent of the required funding is received

Impact

335,000 of those targeted (63 per cent of whom are IDPs) left out, facing protection risks, such as child trafficking, GBV, exploitation in terms of child labour, and child marriage, which hinder their development and fulfilment of their full potential in future.

Prioritized actions/locations/population groups

The Cluster will support continuity of quality and inclusive learning for crisis-affected children and youth, including IDPs, non-displaced stateless, and other children and youth who are the most vulnerable, but will reach fewer people.

Over 1 million learners and educators will receive relevant learning materials, have access to trained teachers and receive targeted support to improve their well-being. They will also benefit from an improved learning environment through rehabilitation of learning spaces including WASH facilities.

If 50 per cent of the required funding is received

Impact

669,000 people (279,000 of whom are IDPs in needs severity categories 4 and 5) will miss out on any support and will be facing heightened protection risks.

Prioritized actions/locations/population groups

The Cluster will support the same activities but will reach even fewer people.

669,000 learners and educators supported with activities similar to the above-mentioned ones.

If 25 per cent of the required funding is received

Impact

One million learners and educators will not receive any services and will be exposed to grave protection risks. These include 628,000 IDPs, 262,000 other crisis-affected people, 60,000 stateless people, and 54,000 returnees.

Prioritized actions/locations/population groups

The Cluster will support the same activities but will reach only a fraction of those targeted. At this funding level, the Cluster will only support 335,000 learners and educators.

Food Security

If 75 per cent of the required funding is received

Impact

400,000 people (25 per cent of the target) will not receive food assistance.

100,000 acutely vulnerable people will not receive emergency food production support (25 per cent from the target).

Prioritized actions/locations/population groups

The Cluster will prioritize emergency food assistance and emergency agriculture and livelihood responses for acutely vulnerable IDPs, returnees, and non-displaced stateless people in Chin, Kachin, Kayah, Rakhine, and Sagaing.

If 50 per cent of the required funding is received

Impact

800,000 people (50 per cent of the target) will not receive emergency food assistance, which will now be limited only to acutely vulnerable IDPs and non-displaced stateless people.

200,000 acutely vulnerable people (50 per cent from the target) will not receive food production support.

Prioritized actions/locations/population groups

The Cluster will provide emergency food assistance exclusively to IDPs and non-displaced stateless people in Kachin, Kayah, Rakhine, and Sagaing, and will reach fewer people and with less sustained assistance.

The Cluster will have to either reduce monthly food rations and/or provide only cyclical rations instead of monthly support to certain populations, to ensure coverage of a larger number of people. The Cluster will prioritize assistance to nutritionally vulnerable populations, including pregnant and breastfeeding women and girls, and children under 5.

If 25 per cent of the required funding is received

Impact

1.3 million people (approximately 75 per cent of the target) will be deprived of any food assistance.

300,000 people (75 per cent of the target) will miss out on emergency food production support.


Prioritized actions/locations/population groups

The Cluster will only reach a fraction of those targeted at this funding level. The Cluster will provide basic survival assistance to 400,000 of the most vulnerable IDPs, with a focus on protracted IDPs in camp-based settings whose movement is restricted and who have fewer livelihood opportunities.

The cluster will provide life-saving food production support to100,000 acutely vulnerable people in Kayah, Rakhine and Sagaing.

Health

If 75 per cent of the required funding is received

Impact

At this funding level, 500,000 people (28 per cent of the target) will no longer be able to access life-saving health services, including safe deliveries.

Some 100,000 people will be excluded from specialized care, including for physical rehabilitation services.

100,000 people will not have access to MHPSS, possibly worsening their signs and symptoms.



Prioritized actions/locations/population groups

1.3 million people will be targeted for life-saving health services, including maternal, newborn, child, and reproductive health care.

300,000 people will benefit from financial support provided for emergency patient referrals and rehabilitation services.

325,000 people will receive MHPSS.

The cluster will continue to focus on geographical expansion of the surveillance system to prevent, prepare and respond to disease outbreaks and will support capacity-building initiatives for 66 Health Cluster partners through training, awareness sessions, and development of tools and guidelines.

If 50 per cent of the required funding is received

Impact

One million people (56 per cent of the target) will no longer be able to access life-saving health services, including safe deliveries.

200,000 people will be excluded from specialized care, including for physical rehabilitation services.

220,000 people will not have access to MHPSS, possibly worsening their signs and symptoms.

International NGO partners will no longer be supported with capacity-building initiatives.

Geographical coverage of activities to prevent and respond to disease outbreak will be further limited, with surveillance activities only maintained in Kachin and Rakhine.

Prioritized actions/locations/population groups

The Cluster will support mostly the same activities but will reach fewer people.

800,000 people will receive life-saving health services, including maternal, newborn, child, and reproductive health care.

The Cluster will sustain activities to detect disease outbreak only in Kachin and Rakhine and respond to outbreaks only in easy-to-access areas.

200,000 people will benefit from financial support provided for emergency patient referrals.

220,000 people will receive MHPSS.

Capacity building initiatives for only local health partners through training, awareness sessions, and development of tools and guidelines.

If 25 per cent of the required funding is received

Impact

One million people (56 per cent of the target) will no longer be able to access life-saving health services, including safe deliveries.

The Cluster will also discontinue all other activities, including referrals, physical rehabilitation, MHPSS, capacity building, and health education. The quality of health services will reduce due lack of funding for capacity building.

Prioritized actions/locations/population groups

At this funding level, the Cluster will only reach a fraction of those targeted.

800,000 people will receive life-saving health services, including maternal, newborn, child, and reproductive health care.

The Cluster will sustain outbreak detection in Kachin and Rakhine only, with outbreak response only feasible in easy-to-access areas.

Nutrition

If 75 per cent of the required funding is received

Impact

161,000 people (25 per cent of the target) across IDPs, returnees, stateless people and other crisis affected people will not receive humanitarian support.

Prioritized actions/locations/population groups

The Cluster will prioritize life-saving treatment for 500,000 people suffering from SAM or moderately acute malnutrition (MAM).

The cluster will focus on the management of MAM and provide micronutrient supplementation to children and PLW across the four population categories.

If 50 per cent of the required funding is received

Impact

322,000 children and women (50 per cent of the total target) among IDPs, returnees, stateless persons and other crisis affected persons will not be able to benefit from critical and life-saving interventions, such as treatment for SAM, management of MAM and micronutrient supplementation.

Prioritized actions/locations/population groups

The Cluster will support the same activities but will reach even fewer people.

322,000 children and PLW will be prioritized across IDPs, non-displaced stateless people, returnees, though with reduced coverage across other crisis-affected people.

If 25 per cent of the required funding is received

Impact

500,000 people (75 percent of the target), including 220,000 other crisis-affected people, 33,000 stateless persons and 24,000 IDPs and returnees will miss out on life-saving interventions.

Prioritized actions/locations/population groups

At this funding level, the Cluster will only be able to support a fraction of those targeted and will have to limit its support to IDPs only.

The Cluster will only support 160,000 IDPs (54 percent of the IDP target). Stateless persons, returnees and other crisis-affected people will not receive any support.

Protection

If 75 per cent of the required funding is received

Impact

112,000 people or 27 per cent of people targeted with specialized protection support and case management services including persons with specific needs and persons living in heightened risk will be excluded from assistance.

2,500 children will receive case management. Even less expensive activities will suffer with MHPSS likely to only reach 250,000 children and adults.

259,000 mine victims or 25 per cent of those targeted will be excluded from receiving essential, life-saving assistance such as medical care, rehabilitation services, and psychosocial aid, which are vital for their survival and recovery.

150,000 women and girls (25 per cent of the target) will lose access to essential GBV response services, including case management, safe shelters, legal aid, and MHPSS. Additionally, 50 per cent targeted for dignity kits assistance will be excluded, increasing their risk of resorting to harmful coping mechanisms and exploitative relationships.

Prioritized actions/locations/population groups

The Cluster will prioritize essential protection services in high-severity areas experiencing sectoral collapse and areas facing extreme sectoral deprivations, focusing on IDP and stateless including women, children, and marginalized communities.

775,000 mine victims will be prioritized to receive critical life-saving interventions, including medical care, rehabilitation services, psychosocial support, and assistance for economic recovery.

The Cluster will aim to reach more than two-thirds of the target population with child protection activities, including 7,000 children through case management.

2,500 children will receive case management. Even less expensive activities will suffer with MHPSS likely to only reach 250,000 children and adults.

Essential life-saving GBV response services will be prioritized across the targeted states/townships, while minimizing and/or deprioritizing GBV outreach and primary prevention activities.

If 50 per cent of the required funding is received

Impact

The Cluster will deprioritize assistance to 874,000 or 64 per cent of people targeted including those targeted with individualized protection assistance, MHPSS and legal aid as well awareness activities thereby impacting their vulnerability.

2,500 children supported through case management.

MHPSS will reach 250,000 children and adults.

517,000 mine survivors or 50 per cent of people targeted will be left without critical victim support services, further exacerbating their conditions and negatively impacting their overall well-being.

300,000 women and girls (50 per cent of the target) will not be able to access GBV response services including case management, safe house, legal aid, and MHPSS services and 75 per cent will lose access to dignity kits assistance.

The GBV AoR will also deprioritize primary prevention and minimize its outreach and information dissemination activities.

Prioritized actions/locations/population groups

Target levels within prioritized geographical areas and target population groups will be reduced. Protection support will focus on critical geographic areas of sectoral collapse and essential programmes.

Responsive information dissemination and advocacy will be maintained to empower communities.

Low-cost interventions and community-based protection measures will be prioritized to sustain basic protection assistance.

If 25 per cent of the required funding is received

Impact

The Cluster will have to discontinue protection services for 2.4 million people or 83 per cent of the total target, including specialized protection assistance, case management, MHPSS, legal assistance and community-based protection interventions across all areas including those with high severity.

900,000 people or 30 per cent of people targeted will be supported through limited protection interventions with a focus on low impact but community driven information awareness and protection monitoring and advocacy.

1,000 children will be supported through case management.

775, 000 survivors of mines or 70 per cent of the target will remain unassisted, resulting in heightened risks to their health, safety, and overall wellbeing.

418,000 women and girls (70 per cent of the target) will not be able to access GBV response services including case management, safe house, legal aid, and MHPSS services and some 90 per cent will lose access to dignity kits assistance. The GBV AoR will also deprioritize primary prevention and minimize its outreach and information dissemination activities.

Prioritized actions/locations/population groups

Programmes will be largely suspended, and remaining programmes will focus only on critical interventions in limited areas which are experiencing sectoral collapse.

The Cluster will prioritize IDPs and stateless communities.

The Cluster will shift towards life-saving and low-cost interventions, addressing urgent and critical individual protection risks.

Only 20 per cent of the target population will be reached with awareness raising activities, and less than one-third of the target population will receive child protection services.

Essential life-saving GBV response services will be prioritized across the targeted states/townships, while minimizing and/or deprioritizing GBV outreach and primary prevention activities.

Shelter/NFI/CCCM

If 75 per cent of the required funding is received

Impact

250,000 people across all population groups (10 per cent of the target) will be excluded from all planned activities.

Prioritized actions/locations/population groups

The Cluster will maintain CCCM activities in Rakhine and Rohingya displacement sites/camps.

The Cluster will provide transitional support for IDPs (returned, resettled, or locally integrated) to promote self-reliance and stability.

Community-led projects, disaster preparedness, and emergency stock prepositioning will remain essential for the newly affected population.

If 50 per cent of the required funding is received

Impact

One million people (40 per cent of the target across all population groups) will miss out on shelter, NFI assistance and CCCM activities.

The Cluster will not be able to maintain and repair existing shelters, nor build new shelters or maintain infrastructure in camps, thus increasing displacement cycles and exposing many IDPs to unsafe conditions.

Capacity-building, training, and community empowerment efforts will be limited impacting coordination efforts.

Prioritized actions/locations/population groups

The Cluster will have to reduce its activities and will reach fewer people.

While the Cluster will maintain essential CCCM activities and field personnel for displaced populations, it will focus on the provision of emergency shelter and NFIs to address life-saving needs only, with no transitional solutions or new shelter construction.

Prepositioning of stocks for the monsoon season will be minimal.

If 25 per cent of the required funding is received

Impact

1.6 million IDPs (89 per cent of the total target) risk missing out on NFIs, while 2.2 million IDPs and host community members (88 per cent of the total cluster target) will be left without emergency shelter and CCCM assistance.

Shelter conditions will deteriorate for people in protracted displacement, who will be increasingly subjected to overcrowded living spaces.

Newly displaced populations will have to increasingly rely on makeshift shelters, compounding unsafe conditions.

Prioritized actions/locations/population groups

The Cluster will further reduce its activities and will reach only a fraction of those targeted.

The Cluster will focus on life-saving interventions only, with minimal support for 1.7 million people in less-accessible regions.

Emergency shelter, NFI, and essential CCCM support will only focus on newly displaced people and is limited to partial camp operations and field personnel.

The distribution of shelter kits and NFIs will be minimal and target newly displaced people only.

WASH

If 75 per cent of the required funding is received

Impact

400,000 other crisis-affected people (18 per cent of the target) will miss out on holistic WASH services, with hygiene awareness sessions prioritized for them.

300,000 people in lower priority areas, such as eastern Bago, Kachin, Mon, and Shan will not receive critical assistance.

80,000 targeted stateless individuals (69 per cent of the target) will lack essential WASH support.

Prioritized actions/locations/population groups

The Cluster will prioritize essential WASH support for Chin, Kayah, Kayin, Rakhine, and Sagaing region.

Non-essential activities such as hygiene item distribution and water trucking will be scaled back.

If 50 per cent of the required funding is received

Impact

1.1 million people (50 per cent of the target), including 400,000 other crises-affected people and stateless people in Rakhine, and returnees, will miss out on holistic WASH services, with hygiene awareness sessions prioritized for them.

300,000 people in lower priority areas, such as eastern Bago, Kachin, Mon, and Shan will not receive critical assistance.

Prioritized actions/locations/population groups

The Cluster will have to drop some activities and will reach fewer people.

The Cluster will prioritize essential WASH support in Chin, Kayah, Kayin, Rakhine, and Sagaing with essential hygiene kits distribution, while dropping activities such as water trucking.

If 25 per cent of the required funding is received

Impact

1.4 million people (64 per cent of the target) will be deprived of basic WASH access. This will increase the risk of disease outbreaks and longer-term deterioration of community resilience.

Prioritized actions/locations/population groups

At this funding level, the Cluster will have to severely curtail its response and will reach only a fraction of those targeted.

Response will focus on emergency WASH interventions in the most critical displacement sites only.