Syrian Arab Republic

Fourteen years since the onset of the crisis, Syria is grappling with a catastrophe of unprecedented magnitude, with new developments adding to the existing crises and taking a heavy toll on the people living in Syria. Protracted displacement, ongoing hostilities leading to acute protection threats, economic decline exacerbated by global inflation, the spill over effects of regional deteriorations, climate and environmental impacts, and most recently the uncertain future of governance in the country, are the biggest challenges Syrians currently face.

Throughout 2024, waves of hostilities and explosive ordnance (EO) contamination caused civilian casualties and new displacement across the country. Attacks on critical infrastructure—including water stations, major access routes, electricity stations, gas and fuel plants, medical facilities, and farmland—have disrupted essential services, impacting access to water, electricity, and healthcare. These attacks, which add to years of breaches of humanitarian and human rights laws, including direct and indiscriminate targeting of civilians, have caused cycles of displacement of civilians, particularly from frontlines, and into north-west Syria where more than two million internally displaced persons (IDPs) already live in camps.¹ In north-east Syria, especially in areas east of the Euphrates River, access remains particularly challenging due to complex local political and military dynamics. Years of conflict have resulted in unprecedented levels of EO contamination, which continues to cause injuries and death across the country as civilians are trying to provide for their families or go about their daily business. From 1 January to 27 December, the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) documented incidents across Syria during which 766 civilians, including 92 women and 212 children, were killed as a result of the conflict, both in relation to the conduct of hostilities and outside such contexts.

Regional conflicts have increasingly impacted Syria. Hostilities in Lebanon since September 2024 have displaced about 562,000 people into Syria (63 per cent Syrians and 37 per cent Lebanese or other nationals), with almost 3,000 Lebanese refugees crossing back into Lebanon immediately following the ceasefire in Lebanon.² This influx has increased the stress on an already fragile humanitarian situation, straining Syria's limited resources and placing additional pressure on essential services. At the launch of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2025, the Regional Refugee & Resilience Plan (3RP) included planning figures from the Inter-Agency Emergency Appeal for the Influx from Lebanon to Syria, which was launched in October 2024 and runs until March 2025.

Syria’s economic crisis, characterized by soaring inflation, currency devaluation, and rising commodity and services prices, continues to drive needs across the country. The cost of living, as measured by the minimum expenditure basket (MEB), rose by 21 per cent in a year and more than tripled in just two years. Given this rise in costs, the minimum wage can only cover 16 per cent of the food component of the MEB, reflecting the growing challenges families face in meeting their basic needs. This economic hardship, combined with limited employment opportunities, is pushing more households into poverty and aid dependency, driving up response costs and eroding the impact of humanitarian efforts. Effects of the economic crisis impact female headed households and other vulnerable groups, such as women, adolescent girls, and persons with disabilities (PWD) more systematically, increasing the risks of various forms of gender-based violence (GBV) and the use of negative coping mechanisms, such as child marriage, child labour and sexual exploitation, among others. The World Bank’s economic update in October 2024 forecast that Syria’s gross domestic product will contract by 1 per cent in 2025, while extreme poverty is projected to increase from 33.1 per cent in 2024 to 37.4 per cent in 2025.

Syria’s vulnerability to climate-induced shocks is heightened by the long-lasting impacts of conflict and compounded by water scarcity. The average Syrian has access to only 355 m³ of clean water per year. A 15 per cent rainfall deficit in 2023 further restricted water access for 8.5 million people, including 1.8 million already severely affected. Increasingly frequent climate anomalies induce natural hazards–such as prolonged, extreme heatwaves and winters as well as erratic rainfall, and unpredictable cycles of drought-like conditions and flooding–exacerbate Syria's water scarcity and pose serious risks to human, animal, and plant health.

Since the change of authorities on 8 December, hostilities and insecurity remain active across Syria, particularly in the north-eastern parts of the country, resulting in movement restrictions and damage to vital infrastructure, including water stations, bridges, markets and service providers. Humanitarian access remains a challenge in parts of north-east Syria, with internal and external border crossings across Syria in various states of functioning. Movements of people and renewed displacement continue, with 627,500 people newly displaced in Syria, and more than 522,000 people having returned since this wave of displacement began on 27 November – with displacement having peaked at 1.1 million on 12 December.³ Across borders, UNHCR reported that more than 195,000 Syrians have returned to their country in one month since 8 December, with the primary areas of return being Aleppo, Ar-Raqqa and Dar’a.⁴ This large-scale movement of people also brought to light the gravity of the threat from explosive remnants of war. In the month of December 2024 alone, the number of casualties from EO tripled from previous months, with children accounting for about 50 per cent of casualties. In addition to insecurity and ongoing displacement, the economic situation remains dire across Syria, compounded by declining public services. While prices have stabilized, living conditions continue to be strained by reduced purchasing power and challenges with banking transactions and liquidity. Additionally, fuel, electricity and water shortages continue to be reported across governorates.

The shifts in the context, new displacement waves, and new needs arising necessitate an update to the figures related to humanitarian needs to enable the humanitarian community to design and implement an efficient and timely response. Therefore, the Whole of Syria (WoS) assessment & analysis working group (AAWG) has been revisited and revised to align with recent developments, an essential step for streamlining efforts, promoting coordinated assessments and data sharing, and ensuring consistency in methodologies among humanitarian actors. This will facilitate medium-term plans for a comprehensive needs assessment that is multi-sectoral, gender-sensitive and inclusive to enable evidence-based decision-making, guide resource allocation, and effectively establish response priorities to address Syria’s dynamic and multifaceted crisis. The AAWG includes representation from each sector and will be responsible for planning and implementing a multi-sector needs assessment (MSNA) to support the Humanitarian Programme Cycle (HPC) process for the WoS.