Afghanistan

Summary of needs

Afghanistan’s economy is slowly recovering, yet it remains extremely fragile: fiscal pressures, a widening trade deficit, and persistent poverty and food insecurity continue to strain households¹. Multiple shocks, including four consecutive years of drought, recurrent natural disasters (earthquakes and flash floods), weak economic conditions, together with an increasing influx of returnees from Iran and Pakistan, are worsening food insecurity and putting pressure on livelihoods. The August earthquake in eastern Afghanistan further destroyed homes and assets, and displaced communities, increasing the number of households facing food consumption gaps.²

During the first projection period (November 2025 to March 2026), which coincides with the peak of the lean season, an estimated 17.4 million people, about 36% of the population, are projected to face Crisis or worse food insecurity (IPC Phase 3+) and will be in urgent need of life saving food assistance and emergency agriculture support. This includes 4.7 million people in Emergency (Phase 4).These results mark a significant deterioration compared to the same period last year, with an increase of 2.6 million people facing Crisis or worse, including additional 1.6 million people in Emergency conditions. Limited coverage of food assistance, a weak and contracting economy marked by high unemployment and falling remittances, and the compounded impacts of severe drought, recent earthquakes, and the large influx of returnees from Iran and Pakistan remain the primary drivers of acute food insecurity in Afghanistan.

The provinces with higher prevalence of food insecurity (IPC 3+) and severity (% of population in IPC Phase 4) include Badakhshan, Bamyan, Daikundi, Faryab, Ghor, Jawzjan, and Samangan. The most affected groups are drought-impacted communities, refugees, returnees, and displaced populations. Persons with disabilities and female-headed households face heightened vulnerability due to restrictions on women’s work and movement, while children remain among the most at risk due to malnutrition and limited access to essential services.

Natural hazards continue to compromise food security throughout Afghanistan. In 2025, nearly five million people, approximately 10 percent of the national population, were affected by environmental hazards. Climate and disaster events have increasingly driven livelihood-related displacement³. Communities were most likely to have experienced drought (39%), followed by heavy rain (31%), flood (25%), and heavy snow (25%). The 2025 drought is more severe and widespread than those of 2018 and 2021, affecting nearly half of the country’s provinces. It has severely impacted 3.4 million people across 65 districts, devastating food security, water access, and livelihoods (OCHA, 2025). Livestock losses due to drought and foot-and-mouth disease, along with failing rainfed crops and declining groundwater, have deepened rural hardship, particularly in Helmand, Daykundi, and Kandahar provinces, where repeated droughts continue to erode resilience and drive displacement.

According to the 2025 Whole of Afghanistan Assessment (WoAA), food (81 percent) and livelihoods (56 percent) remain the highest priority needs, reflecting deteriorating household access to food and income. Eighty-five percent of households experienced at least one shock in the 2025, driven largely by drought, which increased sharply from 34 percent in 2024 to 64 percent in 2025. Sixty-seven percent of households faced multiple shocks, while income per household member fell by 11 percent (to 1,000 AFN) alongside rising expenditure and debt. Economic stress, drought, floods, and earthquakes have contributed to livestock losses, reduced agricultural production, fewer work opportunities, and declining incomes.

Additionally, the WoAA indicates that humanitarian assistance coverage has further contracted, falling from 34 percent to 24 percent of households, with support to female-headed households decreasing from 43 percent in 2024 to just 25 percent in 2025. Women, returnees, and IDPs continue to face significant barriers to accessing livelihoods and essential services, heightening their vulnerability to food insecurity.

Food prices have declined due to harvests, lower global commodity prices, and the appreciation of the Afghan currency. Overall, in 2026, prices are expected to follow normal seasonal trends, gradually rising in winter as local harvests become unavailable. Snow-blocked roads and difficult transport conditions are likely to disrupt supply chains, causing localized price spikes, while rising diesel prices following restrictions on low-quality fuel imports continue to increase transportation costs. Cross-border clashes between Afghanistan and Pakistan have further disrupted trade flows, halting imports and exports through key border points and heightening economic uncertainty. Additionally, with an estimated 2.4 million undocumented returnees expected in 2026 (IOM, September 2025), demand for basic services in high-returnee areas may exceed local capacity, worsening living conditions and increasing vulnerability for both returnees and host communities.

Food Assistance and emergency agriculture support combined with above-average 2025 harvests helped prevent even more people from falling into severe food insecurity. Despite this food insecurity levels remain above those prior to 2021. Humanitarian funding continues to significantly reduce despite the need for food and emergency agriculture assistance remaining high. This has led to reduced packages of assistance for only a portion of the most vulnerable. Access to sufficient and quality inputs to the most vulnerable farmers remains a challenge. Climate models indicate a 71% probability of La Niña during October–December 2025, decreasing to 54% during December 2025–February 2026.These effects are expected to be amplified by the ongoing multi-year drought, now persisting for five consecutive years since 2018. Above-average daily temperatures will persist through May 2026, with the likelihood of extreme temperatures two to three times higher than normal. Such conditions will likely accelerate snowmelt, reduce snow-water equivalent, and limit water recharge for spring irrigation, while higher evapotranspiration rates increase soil-moisture stress and water demand for winter crops.

During the winter period which coincides with the lean season, the mountainous regions, especially in the northeast (Hindu Kush and Pamir ranges), will likely experience heavy snowfall, which can lead to localized road blockages and transportation challenges affecting access to food. In contrast, the lower plains and southern regions are expected to face drier conditions with relatively lower precipitation, which may hinder winter wheat sowing and other agricultural activities. These areas include Helmand, Kandahar, Nimroz and Uruzgan, among others. Groundwater will continue to be the primary water source, mitigating surface-water shortages but threatening long-term sustainability. Persistent drought and warm temperatures will also limit pasture recovery and constrain agricultural and livestock productivity, reducing household food access and resilience throughout the upcoming year.

Response strategy

FSAC’s response addresses food insecurity through life saving food assistance and emergency agriculture, targeting 11.9 million and 6.7 million people, respectively, out of 17.4 million in IPC Phase 3+. Populations that will be assisted include natural disaster-affected communities, refugees, returnees from neighboring countries such as Iran and Pakistan, and displaced communities, people with disabilities, female-headed households, and children, all highly vulnerable due to restrictions on movement and work.

Overall, the FSAC’s priority response activities in 2026 build upon the positive impacts of food security and emergency agriculture assistance since 2021 when the food insecurity levels sharply rose. For 2026 humanitarian response, the FSAC partners will continue to provide lifesaving food assistance and emergency agriculture support, recalibrating the response given continued high needs, improvements in some segments, and reduced funding forecasts.

1. Lifesaving Food Assistance

In 2026, FSAC partners will aim to target 11.9 million people of the 17.4 million projected to be food insecure, across the 34 provinces, based on their fragility, diverse shocks, and severity of food insecurity across the country. The October 2025 IPC analysis for Afghanistan shows widespread food insecurity across the country, with seven provinces in IPC Phase 4 and 33 out of 34 provinces having 5–20 percent of their populations classified in Phase 4. This makes it difficult to phase out assistance in specific geographic areas. Although food security outcomes improved between 2021 and 2025, drought and other compounding shocks have pushed vulnerability levels back up as of November 2025 and into 2026. Due to current funding constraints, FSAC partners will aim to maintain broad coverage, while prioritizing a highly targeted approach for short term emergency food assistance in hotspots of food insecurity. Increasing ration sizes or extending the duration of assistance would significantly raise costs and could potentially double funding requirements. Due to limited funding amidst high needs, for 2026, FSAC partners will aim to reach more of the most vulnerable populations through further recalibration of humanitarian food assistance.

Response strategy: If sufficient funding is received in 2026, FSAC partners plan to assist 6.2 million people during the winter lean season (November – April), including 4.6 million people facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) levels of food insecurity during the projection period. During the summer and post-harvest period (May – October), FSAC partners will provide short term emergency food assistance in hunger hotspots, with a particular focus on preventing families facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) levels of hunger from falling into Catastrophe / Famine (IPC Phase 5) levels of hunger. FSAC partners will assist 3.1 million people as part of the hotspot response modality.

1. Duration of assistance and rations: Households targeted for winter lean season assistance will receive 6 months of assistance, whereas households targeted as part of the hotspot response will receive only 3 months of food assistance. Food assistance rations for all vulnerable households, whether IPC Phase 4 or Phase 3, will be provided at 50 percent of the required amount.
2. Response to sudden onset shocks and undocumented returnees: In addition to assistance in hunger hotspots, FSAC partners aim to assist 275,000 people affected by sudden onset natural hazards, 1,555,571,000 undocumented returnees from Iran and Pakistan, and 21,242 Pakistani refugees in 2026. People affected by sudden onset natural hazards will receive 2 months of food assistance at 100 percent food rations, while undocumented returnees from Iran and Pakistan will receive 1 month of food assistance at 100 percent food rations.
3. Demographics: Out of the 11.9 people that FSAC plans to assist in 2026, 1,429,394 are people with disabilities, which is 12 percent of the total caseload. Therefore, the overall number of people targeted for food assistance (in-kind and cash) is 11.9 million people (Boys-3,237,420, Girls-3,102,638, Men-2,926,909 and Women-2,644,651).

Should FSAC not receive sufficient funding to implement the above strategy, Partners will be forced to drastically reduced planned beneficiary numbers and the planned duration of assistance. This forced re-prioritization would include foregoing a winter lean response for 6 million people and, rather, focusing solely on providing shot term emergency food assistance (3 months) to vulnerable households residing in hunger hotspots.

2. Emergency Agriculture Support

The Seasonal Food Security Assessments indicate that 89 percent of the people in Afghanistan rely on agriculture as the main source of food and overall livelihood. Among them, about 85 percent of the population surveyed own livestock and over 80 percent own or can access agriculture. This implies that providing support for emergency agriculture assistance (crop and livestock) is important to improving the food security situation of the most vulnerable households in Afghanistan.

For the 2026 emergency agriculture support, provided by FAO and other partners, prioritised activities for the 2026 response including packages for wheat cultivation, livestock protection, cash plus livestock assistance and backyard vegetable cultivation. These are essential to generating income and protecting productive assets of the most vulnerable households included female-headed households. Due to the high prevalence of plant pests and animal disease outbreaks, such as Lumpy Skin Disease and locust infestations, containment measures are planned for 2026. As part of Anticipatory action framework early warning system will be integrated to address shocks proactively.

The 2026 HNRP requirement for emergency agricultural assistance aims to reach 55 percent of rural households facing acute food insecurity (IPC 3+), similar to the 2025 plan. This planning is informed by three factors: (1) targeting aligned with IPC projections; (2) efficiency gains; and (3) the strategic transition from humanitarian assistance to basic human needs support, intended to address the underlying drivers of chronic food insecurity and strengthen the resilience of poor, vulnerable households.

The wheat seed allocation has decreased by 86 percent from 2024 to 2025 (from 840 000 households in 2024 to 136 450 households in 2025). According to (APR-MAIL, 2025), the 2025 wheat harvest was approximately 5.4 percent less than in 2024 (4.54 million MT compared to 4.8 million MT) further compounded by a 2.6 million increase in the national population this year. Under the 2026 HNRP, FSAC will prioritize wheat support for households directly affected by shocks such as droughts, floods, and returnees.

Persistent drought and warm temperatures during the first quarter of 2026 will limit pasture recovery and constrain agricultural and livestock productivity. FSAC’s emergency agricultural assistance therefore includes an increased requirement for emergency livestock assistance, which will keep livestock healthy (animal feed + emergency animal health) to keep animals productive, particularly regarding milk and meat production, and will reduce risks of distress selling, noting that emergency support to the livestock sector has a strongly positive impact on vulnerable including women. The emergency livestock package ensures livestock are vaccinated, treated and fed so they remain a viable asset for extremely vulnerable households. There is growing evidence that animal feed interventions directly contribute to reducing child malnutrition.

The emergency agriculture activities complement humanitarian food assistance to ensure food gaps of the most vulnerable people are covered, while considering seasonality and the vulnerability of households. Food assistance is scaled up during the peak of the lean season which coincides with the winter when food needs are highest, whereas emergency agriculture assistance addresses livelihoods and food availability for the most vulnerable households during the harvest and post-harvest period. During the harvest and post-harvest period, food assistance will be focussed on hotspot areas only and targeting the extremely most vulnerable households. Food assistance and emergency agriculture support significantly contribute to improving food consumption, dietary diversity for nutrition and reduces protection risks for the most vulnerable households. About 50 percent of the FSAC response is intended to be delivered through Cash Voucher Assistance (CVA), whereas the rest will be in-kind.

FSAC will continue to lead emergency preparedness and contingency planning efforts, coordinating with partners to project the most critical needs and identify key gaps. During this period, FSAC will work with the Afghanistan Humanitarian Fund (AHF) and the Inter Cluster Coordination Team (ICCT) to jointly plan funding allocations for rapid responses in high-need areas.

FSAC will collaborate closely with BHN. While their scopes and timeframes differ, both initiatives align under the Humanitarian Development Peace Nexus. FSAC focuses on addressing immediate needs and preventing acute shocks, whereas BHN strengthens resilience and livelihoods to reduce chronic food insecurity. Together, they provide a coordinated approach that meets urgent needs while building long-term community capacity.

Through engagement with regional focal points and early warning actors, and by maintaining continuous response monitoring, FSAC will support partners’ preparedness efforts by providing timely information and advocating with stakeholders for resource mobilization. This coordination role will enable partners to conduct assessments, preposition supplies, and carry out simulations to strengthen overall systems. In addition, FSAC will begin engaging in anticipatory action approaches, starting with planning for the anticipated La Niña conditions in 2026.

Targeting and prioritisation

FSAC targets vulnerable populations in IPC Phase 3 and 4 across both urban and rural regions of Afghanistan. All 34 provinces across Afghanistan face various shocks and vulnerabilities related to food security. Guiding criteria for targeting at geographic level for both humanitarian food assistance and emergency agriculture will include provinces with higher prevalence levels of food insecurity (IPC 3&4 populations) and severity (higher prevalence of IPC 4 populations), as well locations receiving high number of returnees, displaced people and locations that will be impacted by shocks.

Assessment data from Seasonal Food Security Assessment (SFSA), WoAA, and Data in Emergencies (DIEM) consistently highlight the severity of food insecurity throughout the country. Food Consumption Score (FCS) results show high levels of food stress: SFSA reports 26 domains in Phase 4 and 19 in Phase 3; WoAA reports 21 domains in both Phase 4 and Phase 3; and DIEM reports 14 domains in Phase 4 and 20 in Phase 3. SFSA further indicates that more than 94% of households have no women engaged in income-generating activities. Female-headed households are disproportionately affected, relying more heavily on emergency coping strategies and facing greater difficulty in recovering from drought, price shocks, or income loss.

FSAC has developed a response plan to ensure proper resource requirements to reach the most vulnerable and food insecure people. Geographic targeting will be based on real-time monitoring of food security at the sub-district level across Afghanistan. Humanitarian Food Assistance partners, led by WFP, will consistently monitor the food security situation across Afghanistan and proactively identify hunger hotspots at risk of extreme food insecurity, with a particular focus on preventing families facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) levels of hunger from falling into Catastrophe / Famine (IPC Phase 5) levels of hunger.

FSAC partners continue to use cluster Vulnerability Criteria for Beneficiary Identification to allocate assistance. The Cluster will work with partners to strengthen the criteria to reach the most vulnerable, based on the October 2025 Afghanistan IPC analysis, in addition to other assessments such as SFSA. The criteria used for beneficiary selection continue to include recently displaced people, people without social support, families affected by different shocks, large families with low incomes, lack of productive assets, high dependency ratio, lack of income through daily wages, major deficit in crop and livestock production. Other key criteria for targeting include households with people with disabilities, female-headed households, and those with high food-based coping strategies.

Reaching the maximum number of people is critical to prevent the food insecurity faced by families in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) to deteriorate to IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe / Famine) levels. Nonetheless, should funding levels be insufficient, FSAC partners will be forced to further reduce numbers of beneficiaries targeted and the duration of assistance planned in 2026.

For emergency agriculture assistance, the number of households will be reduced relative to the funding received. Emergency agriculture activities will prioritize winter wheat packages, livestock support, backyard vegetable cultivation, and emergency responses to pest and disease outbreaks. These initiatives aim to safeguard food production alongside food assistance.

FSAC focuses on emergency food security and agriculture interventions, addressing immediate humanitarian needs. In contrast, the BHN approach targets longer-term recovery and resilience, tackling the underlying drivers of vulnerability in agriculture and livelihoods through sustained support, investment, and systems strengthening. While distinct in scope and timeframe, both are complementary FSAC prevents acute shocks from escalating into crises, while BHN programming builds the resilience and self-reliance needed to reduce chronic food insecurity over time

Promoting accountable, quality and inclusive programming

In 2026, the FSAC and its partners will continue to place Accountability to Affected People (AAP) at the center of all programming, reaffirming their commitment to a humanitarian response that is transparent, inclusive, and responsive to community priorities. FSAC recognizes that the effectiveness and credibility of humanitarian assistance depend on the extent to which affected communities meaningfully participate in decisions that shape the support they receive. Therefore, FSAC will work to ensure that community engagement is not treated as a standalone activity but is integrated across all phases of the response from initial assessments to planning, implementation, monitoring, and evaluation.

A key focus for 2026 will be the strengthening of participatory mechanisms that allow communities to voice their needs, preferences, and concerns. FSAC and its partners will apply diverse and context-appropriate tools, such as household needs assessments, direct consultations, focus group discussions, community mapping exercises, and post-distribution monitoring (PDM). By systematically collecting and analyzing community feedback, FSAC aims to promote adaptive programming, where interventions can be adjusted in real time to improve relevance, timeliness, and overall impact. These mechanisms will help ensure that programming decisions are grounded in evidence, aligned with evolving community priorities, and sensitive to the local context.

To enhance the responsiveness and transparency of the complaints and feedback system, FSAC will continue to collaborate closely with Afghanistan’s First Nationwide Humanitarian Call Centre, AWAAZ Afghanistan. This partnership operationalizes AAP through a clear and functional feedback referral pathway (AWAAZ → FSAC → Partner → FSAC → AWAAZ), enabling two-way communication between communities and service providers. Through this structure, grievances and concerns received by AWAAZ are promptly forwarded to FSAC and subsequently to the relevant implementing partner for action. Once a resolution is reached, the information flows back through FSAC to AWAAZ, which then informs the caller by closing the feedback loop. This approach not only strengthens accountability but also fosters trust, as communities see their voices lead to tangible improvements.

FSAC partners will maintain a strong focus on gender-sensitive and socially inclusive programming. Women-headed households, persons with disabilities, minority communities, and other at-risk populations often face specific barriers to accessing assistance. FSAC’s gender-responsive vulnerability criteria will guide equitable beneficiary selection, while rigorous protection risk analyses will help ensure that interventions do not inadvertently heighten exposure to risks such as Gender-Based Violence (GBV), discrimination, or exclusion. Adherence to the Do No Harm principle will remain a cornerstone, encouraging partners to analyze potential negative impacts and design safer, more equitable interventions.

To promote dignity during distributions, FSAC partners will continue implementing safe distribution standards and protection-focused site planning. These measures include arranging separate waiting areas for men and women, ensuring the presence of both male and female staff to meet cultural expectations, and providing clear signage and crowd-management procedures. Such measures not only help reduce protection risks but also enhance accessibility for persons with disabilities, older people, and other groups who may require additional support.

Looking ahead to 2026, FSAC will also expand its investments in capacity building for partners. Training initiatives will cover AAP principles, gender equality, disability inclusion, Prevention of Sexual Exploitation and Abuse (PSEA), and child protection. These efforts aim to reinforce a principled and community-centered humanitarian culture across all partner organizations, ensuring that staff have the knowledge and tools needed to uphold humanitarian standards and deliver assistance in a safe, respectful, and accountable manner.

FSAC’s 2026 commitments reflect a holistic and sustained effort to ensure that affected populations are not just passive recipients of aid but active participants in shaping the humanitarian response that affects their lives.

Cost of response

The cost of inaction in 2026 would be significant, with far-reaching humanitarian, economic, and social consequences for Afghanistan. FSAC projections indicate that food insecurity and agricultural vulnerabilities will remain critically high, requiring urgent and sustained support. For 2026, FSAC has identified the need for US$ 651 million to reach 11.9 million people with life-saving food assistance, including 6.7 million people who will also require emergency agriculture support to protect their remaining livelihood assets and prevent further deterioration in household resilience.

While the relative stability of the Afghani has helped moderate the cost of food imports, this improvement has not translated into meaningful reductions in household food expenditure burdens. Staple food prices remain elevated compared to pre-crisis averages, and seasonal price spikes between now and February 2026 will exacerbate access constraints for already vulnerable households. Without timely assistance, these pressures will push millions deeper into food insecurity, erode coping capacities, and increase reliance on negative coping mechanisms such as debt accumulation, distress sale of assets, reduced meals, and withdrawal of children from school.

Food assistance in 2026 will remain a critical lifeline for millions of Afghans facing persistent high levels of food insecurity driven by economic pressures, limited livelihood opportunities, and elevated staple prices. FSAC partners will prioritize the most vulnerable households with life-saving food support designed to stabilize food consumption, prevent the use of harmful coping mechanisms, and reduce the risk of acute malnutrition. Assistance modalities including in-kind food, cash, and vouchers will be tailored to market conditions and seasonal needs, ensuring timely access to sufficient and nutritious food throughout the year. By addressing immediate consumption gaps, food assistance will protect household well-being, safeguard dignity, and serve as a foundation for longer-term recovery and resilience-building efforts.

Failing to invest in emergency agriculture support would also mean substantial losses in local food production, which remains essential for rural livelihoods and national food availability. A lack of support for wheat cultivation, livestock protection, and small-scale horticulture would reduce harvest yields, increase livestock mortality, and accelerate the depletion of natural and household productive assets. This would not only heighten immediate food shortages but also compromise the 2026–2027 agricultural season, raising future humanitarian needs and costs.

Moreover, inaction would weaken households’ ability to withstand shocks, leaving them increasingly vulnerable to price fluctuations, climatic hazards, and market disruptions. The consequences would expand well beyond the food security sector potentially driving higher rates of acute malnutrition, internal displacement, child labour, and gender-based vulnerabilities as families struggle to cope with rising economic pressure.

The cost of inaction in 2026 would far exceed the cost of delivering lifesaving and livelihood-protecting interventions today. Without the required US$ 651 million in resources, millions of Afghans would face deteriorating food consumption, reduced livelihood viability, and heightened protection risks, ultimately generating greater humanitarian needs and topping future response costs. Timely and adequate investment in FSAC’s 2026 strategy is therefore critical to prevent further crisis escalation and support pathways toward recovery and resilience.

Cluster Severity and PiN Calculation Methodology

Data availability in 2026 remains constrained across several critical sectors, particularly remittances, mining, and unemployment, limiting the precision of food security and livelihood analysis. While reliable information continues to be available for key staple commodities such as wheat and livestock significant gaps persist in data on cash crops, including fruits and vegetables, which restricts comprehensive agricultural planning. The 2026 SFSA was conducted across 33 provinces, with Kandahar (urban and rural) again excluded due to sustained access limitations.

Furthermore, periodic disruptions to telecommunications and internet services during data-gathering periods contributed to minor delays in field operations. To mitigate these gaps, the Technical Working Group (TWG) triangulated findings using WoAA, FAO’s DIEM, historical datasets, and partner monitoring information. In provinces such as Khost Urban and Helmand Urban, where updated WoAA data remained unavailable, SFSA data were used as the primary source. Farah’s Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) by Middle Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) data also faced gender-representation challenges due to low participation from female-headed households; therefore, the TWG maintained a reliability score (R2) with a note on limited female inclusion. The analysis applied a population estimate of 48.6 million people. Addressing these data shortcomings remains essential for strengthening agricultural planning, improving provincial-level needs estimation, and informing strategic decision-making.

The 2026 FSAC People in Need (PiN) figures are grounded in the IPC AFI analysis conducted in late 2025, which identifies populations requiring life-saving food assistance and emergency agricultural support for the 2026 response. This analysis considers diverse population groups, including refugees, returnees, protracted IDPs, and shock-affected residents particularly those impacted by sudden-onset disasters such as floods or drought-related crop failure. The IPC AFI draws on multiple cross-validated data sources, including the 2025 SFSA, FEWS NET climate and hazards monitoring, REACH’s WoAA, FAO’s DIEM datasets, the Wheat Balance Sheet, HFA data, WFP market price monitoring, and localized assessments from FSAC partners. These datasets, combined with updated information on displacement, nutrition, and local response capacity, form the analytical foundation for determining FSAC PiN and guiding operational prioritization for 2026.

Needs Analysis, Response Monitoring Strategy and Data Gaps

In 2026, the IPC AFI analysis will continue to serve as the primary planning and monitoring tool for FSAC, guiding prioritization, resource allocation, and response adjustments throughout the year. FSAC will conduct regular independent and joint field monitoring missions particularly in IPC hotspot areas to validate assessment findings, track evolving food security drivers, and analyze the impact of projected climatic factors, including anticipated La Niña related shocks. Core assessment tools will include the annual SFSA, the Pre-Lean Season Assessment (PLSA), and the biannual IPC AFI analyses (pre- and post-harvest), complemented by partner-generated and ad-hoc assessments such as WoAA and FAO’s DIEM.

Between IPC cycles, FSAC will employ a range of monthly monitoring tools to capture changes in context and emerging needs. These include Hotspot Monitoring, partner Post-Distribution Monitoring (PDM) data, and feedback and complaints mechanisms, which provide real-time insights into program effectiveness and population needs. Additional datasets such as market price monitoring, displacement tracking, and intersectoral monitoring will further support adaptive response planning and help ensure timely adjustments to cluster priorities.

With humanitarian needs remaining high in 2026 and funding constraints expected to persist, FSAC will intensify coordination efforts to minimize duplication and reinforce efficient use of resources. Regular gap analyses will support evidence-based prioritization and ensure that the most critical needs in high-risk areas are addressed first. Cluster partners will continue reporting response data through monthly 5W submissions on Report Hub, feeding into the HNRP’s monthly response reporting. The “traffic light” analysis approach initiated in 2024 will remain a core tool for highlighting district-level gaps, while partner presence maps will guide geographic deconfliction and reduce overlap in service delivery. In addition, partners’ internal electronic beneficiary management systems will help prevent duplication in targeting and ensure assistance reaches the intended households.

FSAC will also maintain close collaboration with the PSEA Task Force, AAP mechanisms, and Gender in Humanitarian Action GiHA to ensure that protection-related feedback especially concerns raised by vulnerable groups is systematically addressed. Trends emerging from these channels will inform continuous improvement of food security interventions and strengthen the overall quality, accountability, and inclusiveness of the 2026 FSAC response.