Afghanistan

Afghanistan is experiencing one of the largest return-related displacement crises globally. In 2025 alone, more than 2.61 million Afghans returned from Iran and Pakistan, driven by security developments, geopolitical tensions, including between Israel-Iran in June, forced deportations, and deteriorating protection and livelihood conditions in host countries. The scale and geographic concentration of returns is a core driver of inter-sectoral severity in 2026, particularly in eastern border districts, western reception corridors and major urban centres where returnees overlap with drought-affected, food-insecure and service-constrained populations.

Between 1 January and 30 November 2025, more than 805,000 Afghans returned from Pakistan following widespread raids, arbitrary detentions and forced deportations throughout the year. Returns from Pakistan surged in April 2025 following the enforcement deadline for undocumented Afghans, with pressure further escalating in July 2025 after confirmation that PoR cards would not be renewed.

Returns from Iran peaked in early July 2025, driven by regional instability and worsening socio-economic conditions. Between 1 January and 30 November 2025, more than 1.8 million returns originated from Iran, placing disproportionate pressure on western and central return corridors.

This scale of movement has placed extreme pressure on border points, transit facilities and high-return provinces at a time of widespread economic fragility, food insecurity and service overstretch. Humanitarian partners expanded reception capacity at key border crossings, providing medical screening, protection services, food, WASH, registration, legal counselling and transportation. However, needs extend beyond initial reception, particularly in the first 30–60 days after return, when households face acute shelter, food, health, protection and livelihood gaps. The onset of winter conditions in late 2025 will further erode coping capacity among newly returned families. Nearly all returnees arrive without assets, savings or viable shelter options, and many have lost documentation and livelihoods during displacement. Many lack social, cultural or familial ties to their areas of return. Women and girls now comprise approximately 42 per cent of arrivals, heightening risks related to access to education, livelihoods, essential services and protection.¹ Highly vulnerable groups are prominent among returnees, including women-headed households, which account for 9 per cent of all undocumented returns from Iran and Pakistan.²

Returnees face some of the lowest income levels recorded across population groups, averaging AFN 6,623 ($101) per month, compared with AFN 8,475 ($130) among host communities.³ In high-return districts, returnee unemployment reaches 80–95 per cent. Debt is now nearly universal, affecting 88 per cent of returnee households, 85 per cent of IDPs and 81 per cent of host communities, who are often indebted to relatives, money lenders or their landlords.⁴ Financial distress is driving severe trade-offs with over half of returnee households reporting forgoing medical care to afford food, while more than half lack adequate living space or basic bedding. Moreover, rental prices have increased by 100–300 per cent in some return-affected districts.⁵

Return pressure has been most acute in Balkh, Faryab, Herat, Kabul and Kunduz provinces, where absorption capacity is already overstretched. In August 2025, a rapid, non-exhaustive ISET mapping identified 36 larger ISETs (with a total population of 258,616 people): nine with populations between 10,000 and 40,000 in Daikundi and Nangarhar provinces, and 27 with populations between 1,050 and 5,950 in Baghlan, Balkh, Faryab, Herat, Jawzjan, Kandahar, Khost and Sar-e-Pul provinces.⁶ These ISETs are hosting returnees from previous waves as well as returnees that arrived in recent months. In addition to the larger sites, there are hundreds of smaller ISETs, many of which are of a temporary nature. A June 2025 UN-Habitat estimate indicated that more than 9 million people are living in ISETs across the country. These locations are facing acute shelter shortages, heightened risk of eviction, and severe strain on health, education and WASH services, alongside overloaded food systems and local markets.⁷

Health facilities face persistent medicine and staffing shortages, particularly affecting maternal, child and emergency care. Schools in several high-return districts are operating beyond capacity, with some areas reporting that the teacher to student ratio has risen to 1:70 following the enrolment of returnee children, while 1:30 to 1:40 is considered normal according to the Ministry of Education.