“We thought displacement would last a month, but it has now been two years. We still live in a tent with hardly any income and are unable to afford proper healthcare.”
— Displaced woman in the Northwest.
SUMMARY OF NEEDS
Food insecurity
Food insecurity remains high, characterized by 8.5 million people facing acute food insecurity and crisis-level coping mechanisms (40–50 per cent) in conflict- and earthquake-affected areas, especially among IDPs and non-displaced stateless people. This is further exacerbated by disruptions in food production.
Negative coping strategies
Negative coping strategies and mental health concerns are increasing, especially among IDPs and stateless people including children, with high rates reported of child labour, early marriage, as well as increased risk of survival sex for women and girls, raising concerns over their ability to withstand additional shocks.
Acute malnutrition
Acute malnutrition is rising, with widespread deterioration in Chin, Kachin, Kayin, Rakhine, and Sagaing, driven by displacement, poor health/WASH access, food insecurity, disease, and inadequate child feeding.
Inadequate access to safe water, sanitation and hygiene
Inadequate access to safe water, sanitation and hygiene drives high risks of acute watery diarrhoea (AWD)/cholera and other waterborne diseases, particularly for IDPs and non-displaced stateless people living in overcrowded spaces.
Alarming decline in access to health care
Alarming decline in access to health care is resulting in an unprecedented increase of outbreaks, excessive illness and death among vulnerable people with medical conditions.
Many households struggled to meet their basic needs
Many households struggled to meet their basic needs, and their current circumstances continue to expose them to heightened protection risks and ongoing human rights violations.
Conflict-related protection risks
Conflict-related protection risks remain acute and disproportionately impact children, who face recruitment by armed actors, are being killed or maimed. Women and girls remain at increased risk of gender-based violence.
Widespread destruction of homes and civilian infrastructure
Widespread destruction of homes and civilian infrastructure, especially in the Northeast, Northwest, and Southeast, are triggering acute shelter needs. Mines and explosive ordnance risks remain high, affecting people and access.
A third of school age children are not attending formal schools
A third of school age children are not attending formal schools; with out of school prevalence highest among non-displaced stateless and internally displaced children.
Post-earthquake debris and waste obstruct critical humanitarian access routes
Post-earthquake debris and waste obstruct critical humanitarian access routes, posing severe safety and protection risks for affected communities.
Shocks, impacts and people affected
Nearly a third of the entire population of Myanmar—16.2 million people (out of whom 8.4 million women and 5 million children)—will need humanitarian assistance in 2026. While the 2025 HNRP scope included the entire country, the scope for 2026 focuses only on the areas affected by the two major humanitarian shocks (conflict and earthquake), which amounts to two thirds of the country (227 out of 330 townships). The reduction of people in need relative to 2025 is entirely the result of moving to this shock-informed scope of analysis to define the crisis and geographic areas affected and making critical adjustments to the baseline population projection using enhanced calculations. The PiN change by no means indicates any improvement in the humanitarian situation. If applying the same scope and adjusted population projection to the 2025 HNRP figures, there would be no significant difference between the 2025 and 2026 PiN figures (both at 16.2 million).
Conflict is a key driver of protection and overall humanitarian needs, with assessed households in conflict-affected areas reporting heightened levels of security-related movement restrictions, and a majority being impacted by explosive ordnance. Myanmar has also been classified as one of six global hunger hotspots of “very high concern” in the November 2025 Hunger Hotspot report. The report warns that acute food insecurity is deepening in 16 countries, with Myanmar among those facing the most severe risks. Crisis-level coping mechanisms remain high (40–50 per cent) in conflict-affected areas, especially among the 70 per cent of the population that depend on the agriculture sector for their livelihoods.
Conflict dynamics constrained children’s access to formal schooling across the country in 2025, with more than half of assessed IDP, returnee and non-displaced stateless children reporting they did not attend formal schooling in the 2024-25 school year, largely due to conflict-induced school closures. The health system has deteriorated with large parts of the population unable to access basic health care; 74 per cent of those are among non-displaced stateless households. Shelter needs are particularly high in the Northwest, Rakhine, and Southeast, with more than 40 per cent of the population without adequate shelter. Households continue to be faced with unsafe water sources, poor sanitation and disease transmission, with overall needs increasing due to new displacement and system deterioration. Disruption of early disease detection and immunization services poses a significant risk of deadly disease outbreaks with regional impacts. The gendered impacts of displacement are severe. Women and girls face heightened risks of exploitation during flight, at checkpoints, and in informal shelters. Female-headed households are disproportionately represented among newly displaced and face greater barriers accessing assistance.
Amid these deepening needs, people’s coping capacities are rapidly being exhausted, pushing many over the brink and driving up displacement and mortality.
Inter-sectoral severity of needs and people in need
People in need
The 2026 HNRP focuses on meeting the needs of four population groups:
- IDPs
- Returned, resettled, and locally integrated IDPs
- Non-displaced stateless people (Rohingya make up the majority of this group)
- Other shock-affected people with humanitarian needs
More details on these population groups, as well as on data collection, assessment and analytical methods used, are available in the methodology section in Annex 4.1. More information on situational and risk monitoring can be found in the Coordination, Thematic and System Support section in Chapter 3.
The decrease by 5.7 million or 26 per cent in the overall number of people in need since 2025 can be entirely accounted for by the focused scope of analysis and adjusted baseline population projection. Within the 16.2 million people in need, the categories have significantly shifted. The number of IDPs is expected to rise from 3.6 million to 4 million, an 11 per cent increase. This means that among the four population groups (IDPs, IDP returnees, non-displaced stateless people, and other crisis-affected people with humanitarian needs), many people in need who were previously in non-displaced categories are now displaced, leading to an expected increase in vulnerability and severity of need. Across all groups, women, adolescent girls and boys, lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender persons, older women, and women with disabilities consistently face the highest barriers to accessing assistance due to security concerns, discriminatory norms, and documentation barriers. Their differentiated needs will require targeted approaches within the response.
Severity of needs
The main drivers of needs severity are the conflict and earthquake, resulting in the destruction of basic services (such as communications, education, and health) in the affected areas. A total of 16 townships out of 227 townships within the scope of analysis are in the highest category of needs severity (level 5, catastrophic). These townships are all located in conflict-intense areas across 9 regions and states, including 5 townships in Rakhine, 3 in Tanintharyi, 2 in Kachin, and 1 township each in eastern Bago, Kachin, Kayah, Kayin, Magway, Sagaing, and southern Shan. The catastrophic need severity level signifies extreme conditions where urgent, life-saving and protection assistance is required to prevent widespread suffering, and it indicates a complete breakdown of essential services, with most of the affected population facing immediate, life-threatening risks.
Based on the intersectoral needs severity analysis, more than half of the non-displaced stateless people are in the catastrophic severity level. A total of 25 per cent of IDPs and 23 per cent of IDP returnees are also in the catastrophic severity level. The sectors mostly driving the highest level of needs severity are Protection, Shelter, and WASH.
Humanitarian outlook and risks
The Index for Risk Management (INFORM) for mid-2025 ranks Myanmar 16th out of 191 countries, with a “very high” risk classification driven by extremely high scores for natural hazards and conflict intensity. If the current trajectory is not reversed, the humanitarian situation in Myanmar is expected to remain extremely dire in 2026.
Likely evolution of the humanitarian context during the planning period
Conflict is expected to continue escalating
Conflict is expected to continue escalating. Ahead of any post-election efforts toward peace talks, all parties are likely to increase military action to strengthen their position and to pressure the other side to submit.
High displacement rates
Increasing or sustained use of airstrikes and shelling will keep causing displacement and forced migration resulting in high displacement rates and complex movement patterns, including cross-border displacement.
Challenging access negotiations and delivery of aid
Fragmented territorial control is expected to persist in several areas and security conditions in contested areas are likely to remain volatile and unpredictable. This situation will likely result in challenging access negotiations and delivery of aid to contested areas and non-SSPC controlled areas with increasing pressure to not provide assistance into these areas.
Continued economic challenges
Continued economic challenges such as high inflation and unemployment are expected. Possible increased foreign investment from countries like India and China could create some employment and may resurrect some sectors. Without a lasting ceasefire, development will remain limited and far below pre-military takeover levels.
Escalating protection risks
Escalating protection risks, especially in conflict areas, including risks of explosive ordnance, grave violations against children, denial of humanitarian assistance and increased gender-based-violence.
Increased risks for humanitarian organizations being targeted
Increased risks for humanitarian organizations being targeted if post-election recognition of these organizations by line ministries does not materialize.
Worsening climate disasters and epidemics
Worsening climate disasters and epidemics likely to exacerbate humanitarian needs in absence of control or mitigation measures and erosion of communities' resilience, compounded by the lingering impacts of the earthquake.
High levels of acute food insecurity
The combined effects of conflict, economic crisis, and monsoon floods are expected to drive persistently high levels of acute food insecurity as well as critical malnutrition situations in hotspot areas, such as northern Rakhine.
Affected communities’ priorities and preferences
Wai Hmya Par, Myanmar’s consolidated community feedback platform, recorded well over 30,000 feedback cases across 14 regions and states in the third quarter of 2025, highlighting persistent unmet needs and the lasting impact of the March 2025 earthquake. Most feedback centred on requests for assistance, particularly cash and food support, as households struggled with inflation, market disruption, and reduced aid. While cash was valued for its flexibility to meet urgent needs such as food, health care, and shelter repair, in-kind assistance remained essential in areas affected by inflation or limited market access. Communities also prioritized education, WASH, and livelihood recovery, while calling for greater transparency, timeliness, and communication in aid delivery.
Similarly, the 2025 multisectoral needs assessment (MSNA) found that only 17 per cent of surveyed households had received aid in the past year, highest being 90 per cent of IDPs in Kachin and Kayah, and the lowest being 1-2 per cent in Yangon and Mandalay. Despite high satisfaction levels (97 per cent) among recipients, communities continued to report critical challenges, including insufficient income (41 per cent), food insecurity (20 per cent), and psychological distress (16 per cent). Priority needs identified were livelihood/employment (55 per cent), food (46 per cent), and healthcare (31 per cent), highlighting the urgency of a flexible, equitable, and needs-based response addressing both immediate survival and long-term resilience of affected communities.