People in Need and Severity
Building on the reprioritization of the 2025 HNRP, which sharpened the focus on severity, access constraints and protection risks, analysis of People in Need (PiN) for 2026 was structured around four main issues, driving humanitarian and protection needs in Ukraine:
- Prolonged exposure to active hostilities, affecting the most vulnerable people who remain close to the front line;
- New displacements and evacuations from high-risk areas;
- Strikes affecting people and critical civilian infrastructure across the country;
- Severely vulnerable groups: including among the displaced as well as older people and those with limited mobility who remain in institutions and are at risk of missing out on any form of support.
This issue-based approach enables a flexible response that can adapt to sudden shifts in the geographic scope and intensity of hostilities, evolving displacement patterns and aggravating conditions, such as winterization needs and disruptions to power, heating and other critical services.
In 2026, 10.8 million people will be in need of humanitarian assistance, compared to 12.7 million in 2025. This includes around 1 million people in the territories occupied by the Russian Federation. At an aggregate level, this represents a decrease of approximately 15 per cent in the overall number of people in need. This reduction does not signal an improvement in conditions. Rather, it reflects a more vulnerability-driven analysis centred around four key issues and increasingly focused on the most vulnerable groups. It also takes into account shrinking humanitarian funding and recognizes that some evolving needs are no longer humanitarian in nature but instead fall within the remit of longer-term recovery and development systems.
In front-line areas, the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance has remained constant throughout the year. The highest severity of needs (severity phase 5) is concentrated in Chernihivska, Dnipropetrovska, Donetska, Kharkivska, Khersonska, Sumska and Zaporizka oblasts due to the intensification of shelling, drone and missile attacks, damaged housing and infrastructure, loss of basic services and economic hardship. Approximately 3.5 million people living within 0–50 km of the front line are affected, with an estimated 3.1 million people requiring humanitarian assistance in 2026. Over 90 per cent of affected people within 0-20 km of the front line and northern border—nearly 1.3 million—are in need of assistance. In the 20-50 km zone, this proportion remains high, at around 87 per cent of affected people, about 1.7 million people.
Front-line shifts, and the expansion and escalation of hostilities prompted new displacements and evacuations in 2025. Government data indicates that approximately 130,000 people were evacuated between June and October 2025 with support from authorities and humanitarian partners, while many more fled on their own. Based on the 2025 displacement and evacuation trends, up to 504,000 people are projected to be newly displaced in 2026, including through new evacuations. The most vulnerable among the newly displaced, including those fleeing insecurity through evacuations, are expected to require support throughout their displacement journey, from departure and onward to hosting areas, including transit centres and collective sites. As people who fled on their own remain more invisible to authorities and the humanitarian community, there is an increased risk of them relying on negative coping strategies.
Across the country, repeated strikes continue to erode safety, disrupt services and increase vulnerability. Military strikes have direct and indirect impact on people’s lives and livelihoods. While the majority of strikes occurred in front-line and rural areas, urban centres face significant disruptions to centralized services, including electricity, heating and water. They also affect administrative and social services, as well as education, even though schools are being repaired. Trend analysis estimates that up to 2.7 million people could be affected by strikes in 2026, requiring humanitarian assistance to cope with displacement, service interruptions, life-threatening burns/injuries, mental health trauma, damage, insecurity and protection risks.
Humanitarian conditions for the most vulnerable displaced people and severely vulnerable groups continue to deteriorate as displacement becomes increasingly prolonged. Pockets of severe and extreme need persist across all regions of Ukraine, with protection-related risks particularly acute among the most vulnerable displaced people. People at risk of exclusion from social protection networks, including older people, people with disabilities or chronic illnesses, single-headed households and children and women at risk, face the greatest barriers to services and safety. Conditions are especially critical for 50,000 people in 1,200 collective sites, where substandard living environments persist. In total, 2.7 million vulnerable people in prolonged displacement and severely vulnerable groups who are at risk of not being covered by social networks are estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance in 2026, including those with complex needs and risk profiles who have not been receiving life-saving assistance.
The most vulnerable groups consistently include older people, women, girls, children, single-headed households, people with disabilities and minorities, including Roma and LGBTQI+. Men and boys also face challenges in accessing aid, including health care and psychosocial support, due to stigma around mental health and fears of military mobilization.
In occupied areas, households are exposed to rights violations and face acute challenges in accessing essential services and humanitarian assistance, amid significant movement restrictions. Household composition further heightens vulnerability, with larger household sizes, a higher proportion of older people and many households including people with disabilities. Most people in these areas have never relocated and endured one or more changes of control, compounding protection risks and limiting coping capacity.
Hostilities (Jan-Oct 2025)
Civilian casualties (Jan-Oct 2025)
Community Priorities, Preferences and Capacities
“After my husband died, everything became very difficult. With a small pension, I simply cannot manage on my own. Food, utility bills, medicines … It’s impossible to cover everything with what I receive. I recently had a stroke, so I have to be even more careful with my health. When I applied for cash support and received it within two weeks, honestly, I cried. It was such a relief to know I would be able to cope, at least for a while,” said Valentyna, a 74-year-old retired woman from a front-line town in Kharkivska Oblast.
Vulnerable people in different regions of Ukraine report daily hardship shaped by shrinking incomes, rising prices and limited access to essential services as a result of the war. Economic strain dominates nationwide, with nearly one in three households identifying insufficient income as their most urgent challenge, while others point to difficulties accessing health care or securing enough food. These pressures are most severe for people close to the front line, where 35 per cent of households report that they cannot meet their basic needs, and 17 per cent cite persistent safety concerns.
Older people face the steepest barriers, in particular those with chronic health needs and limited mobility. Women-only households, especially those caring for children or older relatives, consistently report higher needs related to food security, income and essential household items. Women in front-line areas reported significant shortages of clothing, hygiene supplies, cleaning products and heating fuel. Disability remains the strongest and most consistent predictor of severe vulnerability. Households including a person with disabilities report markedly higher needs across all sectors, prioritizing uninterrupted access to medicine, energy, disability-related support and accessible health care.
Displaced people face compounded risks, with one-third lacking stable housing, struggling with rent, service gaps and protection risks, especially for households headed by women, those with members with disabilities, or chronically ill members and older-person households. Food insecurity is particularly high among displaced households with children and those with persons with disabilities. Those trends have also been confirmed in the consultations with IDP Councils, Organizations of People with Disabilities (OPDs) and Associations of Older People (OPAs), as well as need for tailored information on evacuation and assistance available in hosting areas, improved accessibility in transit centres and collective sites, specialized services for the most vulnerable displaced people requiring care, including those in western and central Ukraine. Children face unique vulnerabilities, including disruption to their learning and development; children in alternative care and children with disabilities are among the most affected.
To cope with mounting pressures, households reduce spending, cut food quality and deplete savings, while displaced households resort to severe coping strategies at nearly twice the rate of non-displaced families. Those with the least capacity to absorb shocks, older adults, women caregivers, families with disabilities, low-income rural households and people living closest to active fighting, face widening gaps between their needs and what they can realistically access or afford.
Many people express appreciation for aid (75 per cent): the satisfaction levels among displaced families reaching up to 81 per cent. In front-line communities, residents expressed frustration by the lack of follow-up communication or sustained engagement by humanitarian organizations after the assessment. Cash remains the most preferred form of support for 79 per cent of households, regardless of location or demographic. Social media is the most trusted channel for information on aid (40 per cent) across all groups, though older households still prefer television.
Satisfaction of households with humanitarian assistance received
Humanitarian Outlook and Risks
“There was this bright flash in the sky, like a fireball, and then a loud explosion. I couldn’t reach the shelter because of my knees, so I waited under the canopy until my daughter pulled me down to the basement. Just moments later, another blast shook everything. By morning, the windows were gone, and the roof was torn apart. You live like this every day, under fire, but still trying to hold on. This is my home. I don’t want to leave,” said Zoia, 71, from Donetska Oblast.
The context in Ukraine in 2026 will remain highly volatile, shaped by ongoing hostilities, recurrent damage to critical civilian infrastructure, constrained access and seasonal shocks. Key risks include potential escalation of hostilities, continued strikes on energy and civilian infrastructure, large-scale displacement, deepening multi-dimensional vulnerabilities, declining access, operational capacity and environmental hazards. Hundreds of thousands of additional people could be at risk of displacement if the front line moves towards populated urban areas. Extreme weather conditions during winter and summer further intensify vulnerabilities as ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure result in rolling power outages and disruptions to heat/cooling and water supply.
The Government of Ukraine’s Strategy of State Policy on Internal Displacement 2023-2025 expires at the end of 2025, with an expedited revision process being led by the Ministry of Social Policy, Family and Unity. In 2025, there have been significant changes to the key ministries and legislative and policy frameworks relating to internal displacement, including the issuance of Resolution No. 1307 on evacuations, which are critical for humanitarian actors engaging in responses, notably pertinent to evacuations and displacements, to ensure complementarity with Government systems and advocate for protection of internally displaced people.
Humanitarian access will remain unpredictable due to hostilities, with movement restrictions and security incidents affecting humanitarian personnel and their assets, potentially forcing delays and temporary suspensions of operations in high-risk areas. Access to vulnerable people in occupied areas is anticipated to remain extremely challenging.
Any changes in the context, including a ceasefire agreement, would require a revision of response. Declining humanitarian funding and reduced availability of skilled staff, including due to mobilization, impact response capacity. The war’s enduring impact on mental health, housing, social cohesion and essential services will shape people’s lives for years to come.
The humanitarian situation and evolving needs will be continuously monitored to inform strategic planning and operational decision-making in support of the strategic priorities. Estimates of people requiring evacuation and post-strike assistance are based on recent trends and will be regularly reviewed through ongoing surveys and assessments by humanitarian partners.
Humanitarian and security conditions in front-line and affected areas, including access to services, infrastructure damage, protection risks and displacement trends, will be analyzed through ongoing situation monitoring, protection monitoring, rapid assessments and population surveys. Data will be consolidated through existing coordination mechanisms and shared via established platforms to support timely analysis, including tracking winter-related conditions and emerging needs.