SP3: Severity, people in need, planned reach and people prioritized
“My sister was visiting me that evening…We were just sitting on a bench outside, talking, when a loud explosion went off. We barely managed to run inside. Glass was flying everywhere; smoke filled the air, and the whole house shook from the blast. By morning, I saw the damage: the roof was torn, and the windows were shattered. My elderly neighbour’s home had burned down, and her husband was killed. They were such kind, sincere people... I still cannot understand why such a tragedy struck them. When the humanitarian teams arrived and brought materials to help us repair the house, I felt something I desperately needed: that I was not alone. In moments like this, hope is all we have,” — Lyudmyla, a resident of Kramatorsk.
Summary of Needs
Military strikes continue to be a major threat to people residing in Ukraine, either directly—risk to their life and property—or indirectly, by disruption of essential services due to damaged institutions or infrastructure. While strikes mainly occur in front-line areas, by the end of 2025, they have also intensified and expanded countrywide due to the usage of long-range missiles, now increasingly impacting areas distant from the front line. Geographic vulnerability in very high-risk zones and areas where the response capacities of local authorities in certain areas have been depleted are primary drivers of humanitarian needs. In addition, the coping capacity of the affected people is reduced by existing socio-economic vulnerabilities due to the war, especially for families with older people, people with disabilities and single-headed households.
Humanitarian needs vary by context and severity: people residing in rural areas face limited access to essential services, compounded by weaker local response mechanisms, including emergency medical services (EMS), increasing their vulnerability. In urban centres, while access to service is expected to be better, extensive damage to essential and critical infrastructure, including multistoried residential buildings, health care, education, water supply, electricity and heating systems, markets and shops, disrupts essential services. Population density in urban areas makes strikes more deadly, as many people can be injured or killed in a single incident. The depletion of individual coping mechanisms and institutional capacities due to repeated attacks demands rapid and coordinated humanitarian interventions focused on ensuring survival, protection and well-being of affected people and restoration of critical services.
Identified needs span a timeline of preparedness (training of responders, stock prepositioning, protection monitoring), immediate response to direct impact within the first 72 hours (food, cash, shelter materials, health services, psychosocial support, family reunification, information provision, specialized referrals and transportation assistance), as well identification of people requiring longer-term case management and medium-term recovery support of up to three months—mostly in emergency response to the indirect damage (humanitarian repairs of infrastructure, housing, rental support, livelihood restoration, insulation, legal assistance to restore personal documentation and claim compensation for damaged or destroyed property, case management, community support).
Accountability to Affected People (AAP) and cross-cutting analyses, especially gender, age, disability and protection risks, are integral to needs assessment after strikes and immediate response design. This ensures inclusivity and tailored timely assistance for vulnerable groups with real-time feedback mechanisms.
This Strategic Priority emphasizes inclusive, timely and coordinated humanitarian response to mitigate the impact of military strikes escalating in and beyond the front line and reinforces community resilience across Ukraine.
Scope of Strategic Priority and Managing Overlaps
Strategic Priority 3 considers a country-wide coverage, recognizing that strikes can occur anywhere in Ukraine, given the expansion and shifting nature of the war. While strikes are most frequent in the 0-20 km front-line zone, the response to direct and indirect damage will be planned to cover areas beyond these zones based on vulnerability (e.g., single-parent families, older people, people with disabilities, economic and social vulnerabilities, as well as heightened protection risks), trends, impact severity and local response capacity. Clear delineation and management of overlaps with Strategic Priority 1, due to the high intensity and frequency of strikes in the front-line areas, and with Strategic Priority 2, when large-scale attacks trigger evacuations, are integral to effective coordination and resource allocation. Population vulnerability analysis used for this Strategic Priority incorporates geographic considerations related to exposure to strikes, trends and scale of attacks, household composition (e.g., single-headed households, older people, people with disabilities), economic and social vulnerabilities, as well as heightened protection, GBV and exploitation risks. This multi-layered approach ensures targeted humanitarian assistance where resilience is most compromised. The scope includes immediate and medium-term responses to significant war-related destruction for up to three months, beyond which government-led rehabilitation and recovery efforts are expected to take over. Differentiated response packages within front-line and other affected zones are necessary due to variances in needs, systems readiness and cluster modalities. This strategic framing ensures coherent, inclusive and accountable programming aligned with evolving humanitarian dynamics.
Response Strategy
The multisectoral response to strikes addresses urgent humanitarian needs while supporting immediate and medium-term interventions, aligned with the 2026 HNRP's Strategic Objectives. In 2026, an estimated 2.7 million people affected by strikes will be supported with humanitarian assistance. Two response packages are envisioned for this Strategic Priority:
- The immediate post-strike response package prioritizes life-saving assistance within the first 72 hours after a strike. This package will ensure rapid access to cash, food, water, shelter, essential health services and protection measures, focused on stabilizing affected people. Interventions will aim to alleviate distress caused by injuries, displacement and loss of personal household assets, while safeguarding human dignity and rights. Special attention will be given to vulnerable groups, including female-headed households, affected children and their caregivers, people with disabilities and older people, and risk mitigations measures will be taken. By addressing acute survival needs, this package will primarily support the HNRP Strategic Objective 1 (SO1), to ensure timely and principled direct emergency assistance. Some activities will also support continuity or quick restoration of essential services and infrastructure under HNRP Strategic Objective 2 (SO2).
- The medium-term response package, extending up to three months, will focus on restoring access to essential basic services and light repairs of infrastructure critical for daily life. Response will include home and housing repairs, humanitarian repairs of community centres, education and health facilities, water and heating systems, alongside the provision of livelihood assistance. Protection assistance will focus on the provision of information, specialized referrals to GBV or Child Protection services, psychosocial support and legal assistance, while the most vulnerable groups will be supported through individual case management to address their complex needs. Humanitarian partners will support localization by building the capacities of service providers operating in areas most frequently affected by strikes, ensuring they are adequately trained in protection standards and well-versed in technical issues. Following strikes, disrupted community networks and weakened resilience will be addressed by reinforcing and establishing community mechanisms, including local structures and networks. These efforts will contribute to both SO1 and SO2 by fostering service accessibility and providing life-saving protection.
Preparedness and seasonal interventions will complement these packages as standalone activities, not limited to response timelines. These interventions will include multisectoral capacity building to ensure the adequate ability to respond to strikes, support to comprehensive contingency planning, system stability, prepositioning of critical medical supplies, including trauma and surgical kits, strengthening of community protection mechanisms, protection monitoring and targeted support for vulnerable people during winter months, especially heating assistance.
Modalities for delivering assistance will remain flexible, adapting to operational context and beneficiary preferences. Cash, vouchers, in-kind support and services are employed to best meet needs.
This integrated and phased approach will ensure humanitarian actions complement government efforts by filling critical service gaps during the emergency and medium-term phases, while upholding human dignity. Humanitarian actors will provide timely assistance to immediately save the lives of affected people, stabilize affected communities and address urgent needs. Long-term recovery activities beyond the initial three-month term, including reconstruction and sustained service delivery, are beyond the humanitarian scope and remain the primary responsibility of the Government authorities and development actors. A successful handover at the end of the three-month response, facilitated by collaborative planning and joint efforts during the emergency phase, will foster sustainability and resilience for affected people.
Targeting and Prioritization
Targeting will utilize evidence-based vulnerability criteria, considering geographic exposure, household composition, socioeconomic status and protection risks, guided by accountability to affected people.
The humanitarian emergency response prioritizes rapid assistance to people and areas where resilience has been critically undermined by strikes. Geographic prioritization will consider the trend, scope, severity and frequency of strike impacts, local response capacity and risk of recurrence. Coordination with local authorities will ensure humanitarian assistance targets the most vulnerable in locations where government capacity is overwhelmed. A vulnerability lens will ensure that support reaches those who are least able to cope. Priority will be given to people directly affected by strikes, households with vulnerabilities, such as single-headed households, those with economic vulnerabilities, those with social vulnerabilities, such as people with disabilities, chronic illnesses, and households with caregiving responsibilities for dependents requiring continuous support. People with heightened protection risks facing restricted service access or exposure to gender-based violence and discrimination will also be prioritized. Special attention will be paid to displaced people and people in remote areas with limited access to essential services.