1.2.1: People in need and severity
The Joint and Intersectoral Analysis Framework (JIAF) 2.0 methodology was applied to review sector-level and inter-sector-level severity of needs, ensuring alignment with global standards and consistency between sectors. According to the JIAF 2.0’s needs and severity analysis for 2026, humanitarian needs remain high across all sectors, and all 14 governorates across the country have people in need of humanitarian assistance with the highest severity of needs concentrated in 85 sub-districts across 12 governorates that have extreme inter-sectoral levels of needs (level 4); while 177 sub-districts have been classified as having severe levels of needs (level 3) across all 14 governorates. Notably the numbers of sub-districts with extreme levels of need declined from 132 in the last planning cycle to 85 in 2026, while those with severe levels of need increased from 136 to 177. This indicates that while some areas have seen improvements, with needs shifting from extreme to severe levels, humanitarian needs remain widespread and significant, affecting a high number of locations at a slightly lower but still critical level of severity.
Governorates in Northwest, Northeast and southern parts of the country continue to have the highest severity of needs and numbers of people in need. These parts of the country also host the bulk of IDPs, and some parts were affected by both conflict and natural disasters in 2025. Aleppo and Idlib governorates were impacted by both the harsh winter conditions and flooding.
Displacement and returns of IDPs and refugee returnees are among the key drivers of humanitarian needs in areas with the highest severity of needs. Displacement dynamics in Syria during 2025 were complex and fluid, characterised by the coexistence of large-scale returns and new, localised displacements. While significant numbers of Syrian refugees and IDPs returned to their areas of origin throughout the year, including organized departures from Lebanon, Jordan and Al-Hol camp, and spontaneous returns to multiple governorates; new displacements continued to occur as a result of conflict and natural disasters. The governorates in the southern parts of the country including As-Sweida, Dar’a and Quneitra were impacted by conflict and witnessed new displacements. Rural Damascus and Dar’a received additional new IDPs from As-Sweida and parts of Dar’a, adding onto their existing caseloads. The Coastal governorates also recorded some new displacements in 2025 triggered by the March violence and environmental shocks including the wildfires in July and August 2025; while Aleppo, Al-Hasakeh and Idlib experienced seasonal flash floods and harsh winter conditions that impacted the IDP camps. New displacements were also recorded in east rural Aleppo as a result of waves of conflict.
As-Sweida accounted for the highest proportion of displacement outflows (51 per cent), followed by Idlib (20 per cent), and Aleppo (12 per cent). The increase in movements from As-Sweida to the search for more suitable, weather resistant shelter during the harsh winter months as living conditions become increasingly challenging. Dar’a Governorate recorded the highest proportion of displacement inflows (41 per cent), followed by Idleb (22 per cent), and As-Sweida (18 per cent). Displacement-related vulnerabilities exist amongst IDPs living in dire situations in unfinished or informal shelters, including Bedouin communities in Rural Damascus, who lack adequate shelter, sanitation, and protection services.
In 2025, some 1.4 Syrian refugees returned, and more returns are expected in 2026. The returnees have primarily settled in Aleppo, Damascus, Homs, Idlib, and Rural Damascus, although significant numbers have also been recorded in Ar-Raqqa, Dar’a and Hama, amongst other governorates across the country. This was in spite of significant humanitarian challenges that Syrians continue to face in return areas including, infrastructural damage, a deteriorated economy, inadequate access to essential services and a lack of livelihood opportunities. Additionally, the harsh conditions of the 2025-2026 winter season had devastating effects on IDPs, returnees and vulnerable residents residing in inadequate shelters–mostly damaged houses, incomplete buildings and tents with Aleppo, Idlib and governorates in northeast Syria disproportionately affected.
The unavailability and inadequate access to essential basic services also continues to drive up the humanitarian needs in the governorates hosting large numbers of IDPs and returnees. Years of conflict have left Syria’s basic service infrastructure on the verge of collapsing due to damages sustained during the conflict and lack of maintenance. Additionally, active hostilities, and targeted attacks, continue to cause significant damage to civilian infrastructure including–houses, schools, health facilities, places of worship, arable land, livestock, agriculturerelated infrastructure, and water infrastructure. These attacks and damage to civilian infrastructure collectively undermines civilian’s access to shelter, and livelihoods; further compounding Syria’s basic service provision, and access gaps-adding to the country’s overall reconstruction burden. Notably the World Bank’s national wide damage assessment estimates total reconstruction needs at about $216 billion with roughly $108 billion in direct physical damage to buildings and infrastructure. This frame’s Syria reconstruction is a long-term, large-scale financing challenge.
Communities of Return Index (CoRI) map
1.2.2: Priority needs and preferences of affected populations
While the perspectives of people affected by the crisis in Syria continue to shape and inform the humanitarian response, MSNA findings indicate that communities reported disparities in coverage and targeting of assistance based on criticality of needs. Of the 27 per cent of households who received assistance, IDP-returnees had higher coverage (48 per cent) along with IDPs (35 per cent) compared to host communities (22 per cent), reflecting some degree of vulnerability-based prioritisation. The findings also indicated a substantial geographic disparity in humanitarian assistance coverage in Syria ranging from 90 per cent coverage in As-Sweida driven largely by the July 2025 crisis, and only between 6–7 per cent in Al-Hasakeh and Dar’a. This underscores the uneven access to assistance across governorates and the need for more equitable distribution.
High preference for cash-based assistance and livelihood support
While food assistance constitutes 64 per cent of support received, the majority of affected households identified cash-based assistance as their top priority, cited by 85 per cent of respondents. Livelihoods and employment support was also ranked as a key priority by 58 per cent, reflecting a growing preference for recovery oriented and selfreliance focused assistance. Aligning response modalities with these expressed priorities will be critical to enhance the effectiveness, dignity and sustainability of humanitarian assistance.
The 2025 MSNA findings, and CCCM return intention surveys indicate that inadequate shelter and insufficient household items remain among the most critical multi sectoral needs for IDPs. At least 76 per cent of households identify damaged housing as the primary barrier to return. Affected populations also report a decline in essential services in areas disproportionately impacted by housing damage, further exacerbating vulnerabilities.
Community engagement activities and MSNA findings further highlight persistent access barriers. According to the MSNA 2025, 91 per cent of respondents reported paying for health services, increasing to 95 per cent among returnees. High costs of medicines, transportation expenses and prolonged waiting times continue to limit access to healthcare services.
1.2.3: Humanitarian outlook and risks
Humanitarian outlook
In 2026, humanitarian needs in Syria are expected to remain high due to the protracted and new displacements, protection risks, sporadic conflict, inadequate access to essential basic services, food security crisis, malnutrition, socio-economic challenges, and the aftermath of the environmental shocks including the drought-like conditions, wildfires, and floods. Due to funding reduction, humanitarian assistance will remain incommensurate to the needs and therefore targeting will have to be prioritised and the limited resources will be allocated to address the most critical needs in areas with the highest severity of needs.
Population movement
At least 378,000 IDPs in camps and informal sites expressed their intent to return to their homes of origin in 2026. According to UNHCR, between 1 million 1.6 million Syrian refugees are expected to return from neighbouring countries and beyond; at least 60 per cent are vulnerable and will require humanitarian assistance to facilitate their transportation and reintegration. These returns are occurring amidst limited absorption capacities due to lack of adequate basic services in the areas of return, shelter related challenges, limited livelihood opportunities and strained community resilience. Many host communities continue to absorb IDPs alongside returnees, placing additional pressure on health care, education, water systems, and social protection services. Facilitating sustainable returns and reintegration of vulnerable IDPs and refugee returnees, necessitate investments in return areas to ensure availability and access to essential basic services, emergency shelter support and livelihood support.
Health
The health sector’s risk assessment based on an all-hazards approach and using WHO’s Strategic Tool for Assessing Risk (STAR) identified 27 risks for the near to medium-term future. Very high and high risks include vector-borne diseases (such as leishmaniasis), epidemics, faeco-oral diseases (such as AWD/ cholera), situations of armed conflict, displacement, financial crisis, power outages and clean water supply with implications on the functionality of health facilities and public health. All these are potential hazards that could overstretch the already weak health system and have direct consequences on vulnerable communities, pregnant women and girls, and other patients, increasing morbidities and mortalities.
Water and environmental issues
In 2025 climatic and human-caused shocks affecting natural resources, particularly water, have intensified and exacerbated the humanitarian impact. Insufficient rainfall and historically low water levels in the Euphrates River have reduced access to water for drinking and domestic use for over five million people, in addition to substantial harvest and income losses, an increase in waterborne diseases, AWD/cholera outbreaks and compounded protection risks. Severe and long-term drought-conditions persist in Syria and poor vegetation conditions reflect several months of drier than normal precipitation seasons and above normal temperatures.
Recovery programming and support
The Government of Syria will finalise and launch its National Recovery Strategy during the first half of 2026, which aims to facilitate, scaling up recovery and reconstruction efforts. It’s successful roll out and implementation will lay the required groundwork for transitioning from emergency relief to recovery, reconstruction and development assistance. In addition, the government’s ‘no camp in 2026’ policy initiative will harness the authorities to actively support the transitioning IDPs away from prolonged encampment towards more sustainable, dignified living arrangements and where feasible durable solutions. Syria’s economic recovery will likely continue on a more positive trajectory, albeit still challenged with liquidity related constraints especially as the country transitions to a new currency, efforts to ease the sanctions on Syria will continue, along with the gradual reintegration into the international economy. Development aid will gradually flow into the country and will help bridge some of the basic service gaps, strengthen government capacity, and help determine the pace of reductions in humanitarian needs and response efforts.
Key risks and hazards
The 2026 needs and response analysis draws on a forward-looking assessment of risks and hazards, in addition to assessed needs. During the past year, the humanitarian community responded to seven categories of emergencies, both conflict and natural disaster related. The joint analysis of sectors and inter-sector working group and the government’s Ministry of Emergency and Disaster Management (MoEDM) and other technical line ministries, the following key risks and hazards have been prioritised for preparedness purposes in 2026. Each risk has been evaluated using a structured approach that takes into account likelihood and impact. Monitoring will be done on a rolling basis to inform prioritisation. In the 2026 HNRP, Sectors have allocated at least 10 per cent of their overall requirements to support emergency preparedness.
Situational monitoring
Sector-specific assessments, rapid needs assessments (RNAs), and the annual MSNA will continue to serve as a primary source of data for analysis, complemented by secondary sources and ad-hoc assessments which continue to be an important tool to monitor the evolution of needs through a set of agreed indicators. They will be complemented by regular needs and context monitoring efforts at both inter-sector and sector level, including on population movement, the functionality of critical service infrastructure, market prices and currency fluctuations, trends in humanitarian access, conditions and multisector response in IDP sites of last resort, among others.
The IDP Task Force will generate data, and analysis on IDP movements and snapshots at the community level to inform the ongoing operational response. The Population Task Force generates data and analysis. Population baselines will be updated, generating ‘best estimates’ of the number of people living within the administrative boundaries of Syria at the community (admin four) level, gender disaggregated data, as a common reference point for the humanitarian community. Situation monitoring related to population movements, intentions and shelter conditions will continue in 2026 primarily through IOM’s Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) and the Camp Coordination and Camp Management (CCCM) Sector mechanisms. The evolution of related needs will continue to be monitored though assessments coordinated at intersectoral level and more frequent localised assessments coordinated through clusters. WFP supports market price monitoring and issues monthly reports; while FAO supports monitoring of drought and other environmental risks that affect food production and promptly shares the required alerts. OCHA and HAWG will continue to enhance access monitoring and reporting systems.
Risk matrix
Seasonality of events and risks
