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Current Requirements (US$)$2.60 billion
Analysis of the context, crisis and needs
The humanitarian situation in Somalia continues to deteriorate. Despite recent progress, active conflict, widespread insecurity, recurrent climate shocks, disease outbreaks and increasing poverty are driving humanitarian needs and devastating the people of Somalia.
The recent escalation of the military offensive against Al Shabaab has significant humanitarian implications, including increased displacement and reprisal attacks. Ongoing military operations present on one hand an opportunity for expanded access into areas previously under Al Shabaab control, but on the other hand the increased likelihood of widespread insecurity and acute deterioration of humanitarian access. This uncertainty will require partners to exercise flexibility in programming to shift away from insecure areas and to enter newly recovered areas.
Furthermore, the current extreme, widespread and persistent multi-season drought is unprecedented. Following the historic failure of four consecutive rainy seasons, Somalia is facing a climatic event not previously seen in at least 40 years. The current drought has surpassed the 2010/2011 and 2016/2017 droughts in terms of duration and severity, and a fifth failed rainy season is projected by early 2023.
Gedo Region, Somalia Doolow
A doctor checks a young girl’s upper-arm measurement at Doolow Referral Health Centre.
OCHA/Yao ChenHumanitarian needs continue to grow. The number of people affected by the unprecedented drought has more than doubled since the beginning of the year. Currently 7.8 million people — nearly half of Somalia’s estimated population — have been affected. Displacement has increased threefold since the beginning of 2022, with more than 1.3 million people displaced due to drought.
The lives and livelihoods of the most vulnerable and marginalized people have been irreversibly harmed, and last-resort coping mechanisms have been exhausted. The drought has devastated the agriculture sector, which accounts for up to 60 per cent of Somalia’s GDP, 80 per cent of its employment and 90 per cent of its exports. Since mid-2021, one third of all livestock in the worst-affected areas have died. Conditions for crop and livestock production are expected to remain extremely poor until at least the start of the next rainy season in April 2023, if not longer, leading to further loss of livelihoods.
With only 57 per cent received of the US$2.27 billion needed to fund the response, critical response programmes have been stretched to breaking point. The humanitarian community is struggling to keep pace with the increasing scale, scope and severity of needs. An urgent infusion of funds is needed to respond to the most critical needs and mitigate the impending loss of life across Somalia in the months ahead.
Doolow, Somalia
Two girls at Kaharey IDP site.
OCHA/Yao ChenProjected situation in 2023 and beyond
The impact of the drought, widespread insecurity and increasing economic pressures are driving the country to the brink of famine. Between October and December 2022, famine is projected, specifically among rural residents in the Baidoa and Burhakaba districts and displaced people in Baidoa in the Bay region. In addition, several areas in central and southern Somalia have an increased risk of famine through at least December 2022. Without humanitarian assistance, more than one in three Somalis, or nearly 6.7 million people, are expected to face acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3) or worse levels through the end of 2023.
Acute malnutrition in children is on the rise. More than half of all children under age 5 will likely face acute malnutrition through mid-2023, including over 513,000 who are expected to be severely malnourished. The increased prevalence of communicable diseases directly contributes to rising levels of acute malnutrition.
Water shortages are at critical levels, exposing vulnerable people to additional risk. About 6.4 million people lack access to safe water, while only less than one third of people living in drought-affected areas are estimated to have access to essential health care. Reported cholera cases continue to rise compared to recent years, and measles cases have spiked.
Gaalkacyo, Mudug Region, Somalia
Women fetch water at a water trucking point in Kureyson village.
UN/Fardosa HusseinThe formation of a new Government and the peaceful transition of presidential power in May 2022 brought limited political stability. However, the security situation in Somalia remains extremely volatile. In addition to ongoing political and interclan tensions, the renewed intensification of military operations against Al Shabaab are likely to lead to increased displacement and impede humanitarian access. Overall, it is expected that up to 450.000 additional civilians will be displaced due to conflict in 2023. Protection concerns include widespread forced family separation, indiscriminate attacks against civilians, freedom of movement restrictions, forced recruitment and destruction of civilian infrastructure.
The drought, coupled with armed conflict, is having devastating consequences for women and children, who comprise more than 80 per cent of the displaced population. Women and girls are being forced to trek long distances to access water and shelter, which makes them more vulnerable to gender-based violence. There are also more unaccompanied and separated children in displacement sites compared to the same period last year. The drought has disrupted education for 2.4 million school-aged children. Experience from past droughts indicates that 90 per cent of children who lost access to education never returned.
Response priorities in 2023
Despite operational and access challenges, humanitarian partners reached some 7.3 million people with humanitarian assistance in 2022, which is 140 per cent more than the 3 million people reached in 2021.
Somalia HRP
Humanitarian needs continue to grow, with primary concerns around rising food insecurity and malnutrition, lack of access to water and basic sanitation, and the fragile health system’s capacity to manage disease burden. The overall response priority is to reduce excess mortality and avert famine through an integrated response. During 2023, more than 300 humanitarian partners will prioritize life-saving assistance for 7.6 million of the most vulnerable people by decreasing the prevalence of hunger, acute malnutrition, disease outbreaks and exposure to protection risks.
Through the Somalia integrated response framework, the humanitarian partners will continue to prioritize the most vulnerable populations, including those with minority clan affiliation, marginalized groups, and those residing in rural areas or areas with high access constraints.