Both slow and rapid onset weather events greatly impact food insecurity. The first half of the year was marked by the peak of El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon that can bring weather disruptions across the world through high temperatures and an excess or deficit of rainfall.
The current episode, which started last June, quickly evolved into a strong event, causing devastating floods in East Africa and droughts and wildfires from Latin America to the Pacific. Its effects, compounded by the impact of climate change on global temperatures, contributed to making 2023 the hottest year on record, 1.45°C above pre-industrial averages.
This prompted the appointment by the UN Emergency Relief Coordinator of Reena Ghelani as the Climate Crisis Coordinator for El Niño / La Niña response, under the auspices of the Inter-Agency Standing Committee.
Where are we now? El Niño has peaked but its impacts persist
According to the World Meteorological Organization, El Niño reached its peak in the first quarter of the year and may reach neutral conditions between April and June, but its impact will be felt throughout the year.
The consequences affect millions across the world. Five million people were affected by El Niño-induced floods in Eastern Africa, while high temperatures and dry conditions caused crop failure and wildfires in Colombia, Bolivia, Brazil and Chile. In the Asia-Pacific region, the situation is improving except for a few countries experiencing severe drought, such as the Philippines and Timor Leste – where 27% of the population is now food insecure.
According to the analysis by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Analysis Cell, the biggest area of concern is currently Southern Africa. In January / February, the region recorded its lowest rainfall in four decades, threatening livestock and the upcoming harvest and flooding is currently affecting the region. The drought is happening in a context of heightened vulnerabilities linked to previous climate shocks, a cholera outbreak and high food inflation. Over 16 million people are now food insecure across the region. In the central part of the region, across Botswana, Zambia and Zimbabwe, more than half of the crops have reportedly failed.
While El Niño is a naturally occurring phenomenon, climate change is exacerbating its impacts. IFRC reported for example that in the Marshall Islands, the consequences of the drought were worsened by rising sea-level, which has contaminated water wells.
Preparedness and early action
Since the early warning signs in 2023, the international community has stepped up to support Government-led efforts in anticipating, preparing for El Niño-induced disasters and responding to its consequences. This has included various disaster risk reduction efforts, such as contingency planning and anticipatory actions, including cash transfers, the distribution of drought-resistant seeds and the provision of safe water in drought-affected areas.
The UN Central Emergency Response (CERF) allocated over $45 million for early and anticipatory action, including recent allocations in Zimbabwe and Madagascar. The Food and Agriculture Organization initiated a $160 million Anticipatory Action and Response Plan for 34 countries, while the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) targeted 16 million people in East and Southern Africa. Other preparedness and response efforts included the World Food Programme in Southern Africa, the International Federation of the Red Cross (IFRC), the Start Network and ICRC.
The coming months will be crucial to scale up response efforts in the countries most at risk.
At the same time, as our understanding of ENSO episodes and our capacity to forecast its impacts improve, it becomes critical to strengthen the coordination mechanisms that trigger early action interventions.
Such episodes are predictable and early action has proven efficient, cost-effective and more dignified, yet these types of response remain largely underfunded. As experts warn of a possible shift to La Niña in the coming months (62% chance of transition by July-August), it would be crucial to harmonise early action mechanisms and secure pre-arranged funding, to mitigate its worst consequences.
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