2.3 Planning assumptions, operational capacity & access, response trend

Planning assumptions

Given the high volatility of the situation due to elements outside the control of the humanitarian community, the 2024 response planning has been developed based on an analysis of the actual situation as of the last quarter of 2023 as planning assumptions, rather than hypothetical projections of the situation. It was also grounded on a realistic consideration of access and operational capacity (capitalizing on the existing response monitoring), which may be impacted by funding (and a lack thereof) and the evolving context.

Without a political solution, the coming year will likely see continued hostilities, the effects of unilateral coercive measures, and rapid economic decline, with significant implications for civilians, forced displacement, and vulnerability. Pre-existing regional conflict dynamics are likely to play a role in shaping the crisis. Humanitarian access is expected to remain the main constraint to reaching the most vulnerable people. Displacement is anticipated to continue at scale. While some displaced people may return home, millions will remain unable to do so, and humanitarian actors will need to ensure that host communities receive the necessary assistance to accommodate these families. Over time, more families, with fewer options available, may be forced to resort to desperate coping mechanisms.

Operational capacity

After April 2023, partners have a reduced operational capacity due to several reasons, e.g. high insecurity, loss or looting of humanitarian offices, relocation and evacuation of staff as per the duty of care commitment, access constraints primarily linked to high security risks, and bureaucratic impediments, etc. This has hampered the provision of assistance in several areas, particularly hot spot locations, while relief operations into and across Sudan are scaling up, albeit slower than needed.

Response trend

An average of 9 million people in Sudan received some form of humanitarian assistance during 2021 and 2022.¹ In 2023, the figure is projected to be almost halved as by the end of the year about 5 million people (27 per cent of the overall target) will have received life-saving assistance provided by over 160 humanitarian organizations.² Around 53 per cent of these organizations are national NGOs.³ There is a renewed call to support civil society in Sudan in all its diversity – from national NGOs to Emergency Response Rooms.

For more information about the operational presence please see the 3W Dashboard

For more information about the response monitoring, please see the Response Dashboard

Access challenges

Since April, humanitarian access has become increasingly challenging and complex, making it difficult for humanitarian aid to reach some of the most vulnerable people. The Emergency Relief Coordinator has called Sudan one of the world's most difficult places for humanitarian workers to operate.

Humanitarian access constraints in Sudan are multi-faceted and stem from conflict dynamics, economic factors, and bureaucratic impediments.⁴ Bureaucratic constraints affect both SAF-controlled areas and RSF-controlled areas. Travel permissions are difficult to obtain for cross-line and cross-border transport, leading to delays and preventing aid convoys from reaching those in need. The proliferation of checkpoints manned by armed groups and militias, increasing risk of EOs and poor infrastructure further complicates access.⁵

While access for international humanitarian agencies is a significant issue, staff, volunteers, and activists working for Sudanese civil society organizations (CSOs) and national NGOs continue to live and work in many of these hard-to-reach areas. They have been critical frontline responders over the past several months, despite direct attacks on CSOs.

In 2024, OCHA will strengthen and systematize humanitarian access reporting across Sudan in alignment with the global access monitoring and reporting framework (AMRF). Partners will analyze, discuss and share their access challenges through the Access Severity Mapping, which will be consolidated into periodic reports produced by the Humanitarian Access Working Group (HAWG) and shared with the HCT to inform strategic decision-making and advocacy work.