Zambia

Situation Overview

Overview of the Situation

Zambia is experiencing the driest agricultural season in more than forty years, resulting in significant crop losses, increased livestock deaths, and worsening poverty. Over nine million people in 84 out of the 117 districts are affected according to the government crop assessment data.

The 2023/2024 rainfall season was characterized by late onset, prolonged dry spells, and high temperatures. This erratic rainfall affected crop and animal production. The prolonged dry spells in southern parts of the country coincided with crucial vegetative and flowering stages for staple and economic crops resulting in total crop failure. A total of 982,765 hectares out of an estimated 2,272,931 hectares of maize planted have been destroyed by the drought resulting in total crop failure. These dry conditions have resulted in a significant reduction in crop production in affected regions, with cereal production forecasted to decline by nearly 50 per cent. According to the Zambia Meteorological Department, the most affected regions are Central, Eastern, Southern and Western provinces of the country. These provinces have over the past five years contributed over 58 per cent of the annual national maize crop production. These provinces also host over 76 per cent of livestock, that is likely to experience decreased access to pasture and water.

The drought has also impacted areas where about 2.04 million people were already severely food insecure in IPC 3 and 4 and in need of humanitarian assistance beyond the end of the lean season (October 2023 - March 2024). According to the IPC analysis between October 2023 to March 2024 - an estimated 58,000 people were estimated to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and 1.9 million people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). A total of 67 of the 76 assessed districts were identified as hotspot districts IPC 3 (Crisis). The failed cropping season and extended lean period are likely to result in more people requiring urgent humanitarian action to reduce food gaps, protect and restore livelihood.
Food shortages and rising food commodity prices will hinder vulnerable peoples’ access to food, especially in rural areas where the level of poverty remains high.

Rising inflation, coupled with high food inflation, increasing prices of commodities will impede access to food for vulnerable populations: The country’s annual inflation rate increased from 12.9 per cent to 13.2 per cent in January for the seventh consecutive month since July 2023, while the year-on-year inflation was at 13.2 per cent in February 2024, higher than in February 2023 (9.6 per cent). The rising inflation was mainly been driven by the rise in the food inflation which reached its peak in December 2023. Annual food inflation for December 2023 was recorded at 14.2 per cent compared to 13.7 per cent in the previous month. This means on average, prices of food items increased by 14.2 per cent between December 2022 and December 2023. This outturn was mainly attributed to price movements in cereals. This trend is expected to continue given the failed crop and dwindling stock reserves making it less affordable for the poor to access staples.

Shortage of food due to depleting stocks, increasing commodity prices will increase the risk of malnutrition among the affected communities.

Zambia has one of the highest rates of malnutrition and stunting in sub-Saharan Africa. Reduced access to food, due to the failed harvest and rising commodity prices will increase prevalence of malnutrition in a country where 35 per cent of children under five years are stunted and 4 per cent of children under five years are acutely malnourished or wasted (have low weight-for-height), according to Demographic and Health Survey (DHS 2018). Affected families experiencing decreased incomes as a result of unavailability of income earning opportunities will have challenges accessing highly priced nutritious foods for their children thereby worsening the nutritional outcomes for these communities.

Drying water sources and decreasing ground water availability is severely impacting access to safe water for people in affected areas. About 3.5 million people will be targeted in support to access safe water. Currently, the country has at least 74.7 per cent of its population accessing water through improved sources however, the number is expected to reduce due to the drought.

Reduced access to safe water will increase the risks of waterborne diseases. The country is still recovering from a cholera outbreak that started in October 2023 and has recorded over 21,000 cases. Decreased access to water might lead to outbreaks of diarrhoeal diseases as well as other vector borne diseases. Zambia has regions that are also prone to Malaria which could increase once waters start drying up creating conducive breeding grounds for Mosquitoes.

The drought is having devastating consequences for women and children, heightening the risk of gender-based violence (GBV), sexual exploitation and abuse. Decreased access to water threatens not only human lives but could lead to increased protection risks for women and children as distances and times for fetching water increase due to drying water sources. Female headed households and adolescent girls are particularly vulnerable to increased violence, exploitation and abuse.

Zambia is among countries reporting high rates of child marriage, with prevalence of 29 per cent of girls and 2.8 per cent of boys, married by age of 18. Some districts affected by drought are among those identified as hot spots for child marriages. Stresses arising from the drought are likely to push the rates of child marriages higher. This will affect developmental gains in the attainment of education for children. The girl child will be disproportionately affected as in Zambia girls are more likely to be married off young than boys (DHS 2014).