Zimbabwe

Overview of the Situation

Context Overview

Zimbabwe is one of the countries in the region’s vulnerable agricultural belt and has frequently experienced the detrimental effects of El Niño in the past from 1982 to the present.

El Niño events have recurred irregularly, appearing every two to six years. Historically, El Niño events in Zimbabwe have been linked to disruptions of climatic patterns, including rainfall, resulting in both localized and widespread impacts on livelihoods and ecosystems. El Niño is a climatic phenomenon characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

In Zimbabwe, El Niño events have been associated with prolonged dry spells, reduced rainfall, and increased temperatures. These conditions often lead to droughts, water shortages, and crop failures, posing significant challenges to health, agriculture, and food security in the country. Despite receiving average rainfall across most of the main maize planting areas in late December and early January, most of the country experienced a catastrophic dry spell, lasting more than 30 days, in February 2024.

An estimated population of 6 million are expected to be food insecure in Zimbabwe during 2024-2025 lean season (January to March). The current El Niño induced drought is expected to impact the food and nutrition security situation, reducing food access and diversity, and thereby the overall quality of people’s diets. Poor rainfall led to partial or complete crop failure in most parts of the country–40 percent poor and 60 per cent written-off1 (i.e completely lost). El Niño drought is exacerbating existing socio-economic vulnerabilities, particularly in rural communities who are reliant on rain-fed agriculture.

The drought will only further worsen water shortages in Zimbabwe, exposing 2.6 million people to water insecurity. According to the 2023 Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee (ZimVAC) Report; even before the drought, 35 per cent of rural households were accessing inadequate to water services, while forty-five per cent of rural households were travelling more than half a kilometer to fetch water. El Nino has significantly increased the risk that even more people will be faced with water insecurity leading to longer distances and Moreso, another that 46 per cent of households do not use basic sanitation services (Rural ZIMVAC, 2023). Drought will increase the likelihood of poor hygiene practices and the risk of infectious and waterborne disease outbreaks, as the country is already battling with a cholera outbreak, linked to poor water, hygiene, and sanitation (WASH) service delivery. The current cholera outbreak in Zimbabwe, initially originated in February 2023, is still active in more than 50 districts. As of 8 April 2024, 31,391 cases and 591 deaths have been reported (2.2 per cent case fatality rate). Addressing critical water, sanitation, and hygiene challenges, through community engagement and participation, protection across WASH and Health, sector, and the capacity of the district Rapid Response Teams, will strengthen the country’s resilience and response capacity against future health risks of similar nature.

El Niño induced drought has a negative impact on health, nutrition, diarrhoeal diseases increase and elevated risk of malaria in dry areas. Overall, higher risks of disease outbreaks, hunger, heat stress, mental illness, infectious and respiratory illnesses were experienced during the 2015/2016 El Niño. In 2015/16 El Nino drought it was reported that pregnant women and girls are considered at high-risk for maternal complications related to drought. Health system challenges, such as poor quality of care, inadequate human resources, lack of essential medicines and supplies at service delivery points contribute to a high maternal mortality risk. More than 2.5 million people (2,531,340), including the elderly, children under age 5, persons with disabilities are more vulnerable to the increased health risks linked to the impacts of drought.

The deterioration of nutrition status will render children under age 5, as well as pregnant and breastfeeding women, more vulnerable, as they depend on higher energy and micro-nutrients intake. Poor nutritional status and consequent poor immunity of children under age 5 will further increase their vulnerability to infectious diseases, while pregnant and lactating mothers will be at risk of poor maternal and neonatal outcomes. The nutrition response will focus on strengthening prevention and treatment of all forms of malnutrition, directed at a population of 1.4 million.

The drought is heightening the risk of gender-based violence (GBV), sexual exploitation and abuse. During drought events, an increased likelihood of child-marriage and exposure to gender-based violence has been recorded. Meanwhile, limited access to water affects menstrual hygiene of girls, linked to reduced self-esteem at school, that has sometimes forced pupils to miss school during their menstrual cycle. Owing to long distances they resolve to walk to fetch water, the risk of abuse and sexual violence heightens. Similarly, the risk of exposure to domestic violence and intimate partner violence are also expected to increase, because of heightened family tensions caused by crop damages and income losses. Data from the 2023 National Food Security Rural and Urban assessment reports by the (Rural ZimVAC Report 2023) overlaid with data from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) 2019 suggests that GBV increases in districts with higher levels of food insecurity. Further climate mobility induced by the El-Nino drought will likely fuel irregular migration and create a source of human trafficking. This highlights the need to strengthen the integration of protection services/activities, especially into the Food Security Sector, to effectively address protection risks.

High levels of vulnerability and extreme poverty coupled with El Nino emergency will have a negative impact on the protection and well-being of children. Key expected challenges in emergencies will include higher rates of child marriages, Violence Against Children VAC/GBV, child labour, child migration, children left behind without parental care.

The current El Niño event threatens nearly 1.8 million learners across Zimbabwe's 72 education districts, with the most severe impacts to be felt by more than 1.24 million students, in 30 most drought-affected districts. Drought events frequently result in higher rates of school-dropout and absenteeism. Research indicates that due to the 2025/2016 El Niño, more than 45,067 children dropped out of school, 3,000 more compared to the annual average.2 Currently, the El Niño-induced drought may result in increased school dropouts, as families face increasing poverty levels, thus making it difficult to pay school fees. Other factors influencing school attendance rates during economic hardship include child-marriages, teenage pregnancies, child labour, population movement, hunger, drug and substance abuse, and a general lack of motivation and enthusiasm among students. Currently, climate-induced disasters have exposed 1,801,969 children at risk of protection issues due to weakened protective environment system, which risks of failing to meet increasing needs due to the forecast increased caseload.