Global Humanitarian Overview 2023

Hundreds of millions of people face hunger as historic food crisis looms

The largest global food crisis in modern history is unfolding, driven by conflict, climate shocks and the looming threat of global recession. Hundreds of millions of people are at risk of worsening hunger. Acute food insecurity is escalating, and at least 222 million people across 53 countries are expected to face acute food insecurity and need urgent assistance by the end of 2022. There is also a gender dimension, with women more likely to be affected by hunger. In 2021, nearly 32 per cent of women in the world were moderately or severely food insecure, compared to nearly 28 per cent of men.

Starvation is a very real risk for 45 million people in 37 countries. As of October 2022, 989,000 people were already in Catastrophe (IPC/CH Phase 5): 301,000 of them were in Somalia, the remainder in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Haiti (which recorded populations in IPC Phase 5 for the first time), South Sudan and Yemen. On top of this, 60 million children worldwide are at risk of being acutely malnourished by the end of 2022, compared to 47 million in 2019. Syria – which uses a different methodology – is home to 12 million food insecure people, equating to roughly 54 per cent of the country’s population. Among these people, 2.5 million are severely food insecure.

Aid in Action

The countries facing catastrophic levels of hunger

Ethiopia
Tigray Region, Ethiopia
A health worker evaluates a child during a malnutrition screening for children and pregnant and lactating women, carried out by UNICEF and partners in Gijet.
UNICEF/Christine Nesbitt

Afghanistan is facing an unprecedented hunger crisis due to the combination of a collapsing economy, high food prices and persistent drought. Nearly 19 million people – 45 per cent of the population – are facing high levels of acute food insecurity between June and November 2022 – 6 million of them are in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). They include, for the first time since the introduction of IPC in Afghanistan, 20,000 people who are already facing Catastrophic conditions (IPC Phase 5) between March and May 2022 due to limited humanitarian access.

In Ethiopia, the effects of ongoing violence and conflict in 2022 are being compounded by one of the most severe droughts in the last 40 years. More than 20 million people are estimated to be food insecure in the country, including 13 million people in northern Ethiopia. The lack of updated IPC data remains a major concern. The latest available IPC projections were valid up to September 2021, indicating around 401,000 people in Tigray faced Catastrophic conditions (IPC Phase 5).

As of October 2022, Haiti recorded people experiencing Catastrophic levels of food insecurity for the first time: 4.7 million people are currently facing acute hunger (IPC Phase 3 and above), of whom 19,000 are in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Natural hazards continue to deliver shocks to an already vulnerable population, which is also facing a stalled economy, poor job prospects and a basic food basket that is out of reach for many Haitians.

In Somalia, an anticipated fifth consecutive season of poor rainfall, exceptionally high food prices, conflict, insecurity and disease outbreaks are causing dire conditions. Famine (IPC Phase 5) is projected among rural residents in Baidoa and Burhakaba districts and among displaced people in Baidoa town of Bay Region in southern Somalia, where malnutrition and mortality are already at alarming levels. Between October and December 2022, approximately 6.7 million people across Somalia are expected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). This number includes 2.2 million people who are expected to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and at least 301,000 people in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5).

The situation in South Sudan remains alarming, with almost two thirds of the population in the most severe phases of acute food insecurity (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above). While a significant scale-up in humanitarian response averted a famine-likely situation in 2021, at least 87,000 people are facing starvation and death (IPC Phase 5) as of October 2022.

In Yemen, earlier projections of 19 million people expected to be in acute food insecurity in the second half of 2022 may be less grim than anticipated. However, the country continues to experience acute levels of food insecurity. Economic crisis, a fragile truce that expired on 2 October, and elevated global commodity prices contribute to instability and hunger. Urgently needed assistance is complicated by increasing operational and food procurement costs, as well as supply shortages and access challenges.

Conflict remains the key driver of acute food insecurity. More than 70 per cent of people experiencing hunger live in areas afflicted by war and violence. In 2021, around 139 million people in 24 countries and territories affected by conflict and insecurity were facing Crisis levels of food insecurity or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above). In that same year, conflict was the key driver in three of the four countries with populations in Catastrophe (IPC/CH Phase 5) – Ethiopia, South Sudan and Yemen.

Food prices have been rising at an alarming rate since mid-2020 and now remain at a 10-year high, despite declining slightly in recent months. These fluctuations are unlikely to curb domestic food inflation in countries facing a toxic combination of tumbling currency value and high inflation: 99 countries have had year-on-year food inflation of 10 per cent or more, with food inflation exceeding 15 per cent in 63 countries, making essential purchases unaffordable for many people.

Economic shocks were the main driver of food insecurity across 21 countries. A total of 30.2 million people in these countries were in Crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above) in 2021, reflecting soaring food prices due to uneven global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, high inflation and widespread supply chain disruptions. This was even more acutely felt in sub-Saharan Africa. For example, by the end of July 2022, prices of staple cereals had doubled in parts of South Sudan compared to February 2022. When families do not have enough food to eat or enough money to buy food, they may resort to extreme coping mechanisms in order to acquire food, including family separation, child labour and child marriage.

Aid in Action

The triple crisis: Food, fuel and fertilizer

Ukraine
Dnipropetrovska Oblast, Ukraine
Olena Smahlyuk transports a sack of potatoes during a distribution of seeds and potato starter kits in Vodiane village. Olena is a pensioner and a caretaker of the local school.
FA)/Oleksandr Mliekov

The war in Ukraine – one of the world’s major breadbaskets – is compounding what is already a year of catastrophic hunger. Together, Ukraine and Russia supply 30 per cent of globally traded wheat, 20 per cent of maize and 70 per cent of sunflower supplies. A shortfall in export supplies is driving prices up, leaving import-dependent countries with higher food import bills – or less food to eat. Since the crisis in Ukraine began, food shipments from the Black Sea have been reduced and costs have grown significantly, with immediate impact on import-dependent economies. In addition, fertilizer prices are increasing to record levels. This will significantly affect countries’ ability to grow food, increasing food insecurity far beyond 2022 levels.

Extreme climatic and weather events were the main drivers of acute food insecurity in eight African countries, with 23.5 million people in Crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above). In Madagascar, severe droughts pushed almost 14,000 people into Catastrophic levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 5) between April and September 2021.

As needs increase, so do operational costs to help people in need. Scaled-up funding for cash, food and livelihood assistance remains an urgent priority, especially as the global food crisis has not yet reached its peak.

Aid in Action

Financing food responses through pooled funds

South Sudan
South Sudan
Welthungerhilfe/Peter Caton

OCHA’s pooled funds allocated more than $595.2 million to fight food insecurity in 2022. Of this, CERF allocated $200 million and the CBPFs allocated $395.2 million. The war in Ukraine disrupted food markets in 2022, and CERF responded with several dedicated multi-country allocations. In April, it provided $100 million to six African countries and Yemen. This was followed by two further allocations in May of $30 million for the Sahel region and $20 million for Sudan, in addition to several other allocations totalling $50 million to address the ensuing impact of food insecurity. These allocations allowed UN agencies and their partners to provide critical food, cash and nutritional help as well as other provisions, including medical services, shelter and clean water. Additionally, CBPF funding in Afghanistan, CAR, Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Yemen mitigated the spillover effects of rising food prices.

The Horn of Africa is experiencing one of its worst droughts in recent history, with millions of people experiencing severe food insecurity. In response, CERF, the OCHA-managed pooled funds, and the Ethiopia and Somalia Humanitarian Funds allocated a total of $194 million across Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia in 2022, including through Anticipatory Action frameworks. These funds enabled immediate responses across the region while also building resilience, thanks to the speed of allocations and reach through local and national NGOs.

References

  1. FAO/WFP, Hunger Hotspots FAO-WFP Early Warnings on Acute Food Insecurity, June to September 2022 Outlook.
  2. FAO, State of the Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2022, (SOFI), p. 30.
  3. FAO/WFP, Hunger Hotspots FAO-WFP Early Warnings on Acute Food Insecurity, June to September 2022 Outlook; FAO/WFP, Catastrophic hunger levels recorded for the first time in Haiti, 14 October 2022. IPC information from Ethiopia is from 2021, no newer information available.
  4. Save the Children, Global malnutrition crisis: a hopeless reality or time to get things done?, 13 October 2022.
  5. FAO/WFP, Hunger Hotspots FAO-WFP Early Warnings on Acute Food Insecurity, October 2022 to January 2023 Outlook; estimations based on CARI methodology instead of IPC.
  6. Afghanistan IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis: March - November 2022 (Issued in May 2022); FAO/WFP, Hunger hotspots FAO-WFP early warnings on acute food insecurity October 2022-January 2023.
  7. OCHA, Ethiopia Situation Report, 5 August 2022.
  8. FAO/WFP, Catastrophic hunger levels recorded for the first time in Haiti, 14 October 2022.
  9. IPC, Somalia: 6.7 million people across Somalia will likely face high levels of acute food insecurity, Famiine projected in two districts, 12 September 2022.
  10. IPC, Somalia: Acute Food Insecurity and Acute Malnutrition Situation July - December 2022, visited October 2022.
  11. IPC, South Sudan IPC Technical Working Group 2022. Acute Food Insecurity and Acute Malnutrition Situation for February - March 2022 and Projections for April - July 2022; WFP, South Sudan Situation Report #303, 31 July 2022; FAO/WFP, Hunger Hotspots FAO-WFP Early Warnings on Acute Food Insecurity, October 2022 to January 2023 Outlook.
  12. FAO/WFP, Hunger Hotspots FAO-WFP Early Warnings on Acute Food Insecurity, June to September 2022 Outlook.
  13. Ibid.
  14. FAO/WFP, Hunger hotspots FAO-WFP early warnings on acute food insecurity October 2022-January 2023.
  15. Food Security Information Network (FSIN) and Global Network Against Food Crises (GNAFC), Global Report on Food Crises 2022, mid-year update, May 2022; WFP, A Global Food Crisis; 2022: A Year of Unprecedented Hunger, last visited on 23 August 2022.
  16. Organized violence and armed conflict are key drivers of acute food insecurity in eastern DRC, Ethiopia, northern Nigeria, northern Mozambique, central Sahel, Somalia, South Sudan, Syrian Arab Republic, Ukraine and Yemen.
  17. Food Security Information Network, Global Report on Food Crises 2022 (GRFC), p. 7.
  18. FAO, FAO Food Price Index, accessed September 2022.
  19. WFP, WFP internal Corp Alert System, October 2022; Trading Economics, https://tradingeconomics.com/currencies, accessed on 21/10/2022.
  20. WFP internal analysis; WFP Chief Economist, International food commodity prices are retreating but simply not enough, August 2022.
  21. Food Security Information Network, Global Report on Food Crises 2022 (GRFC), p. 22.
  22. WFP, South Sudan Situation Report #303, 31 July 2022.
  23. PLAN - Child Protection and Child Security. An evidence review of the linkages in humanitarian settings.
  24. WFP, WFP Global Operational Response Plan: update 5, June 2022.
  25. Food Security Information Network, Global Report on Food Crises 2022 (GRFC), p. 23.
  26. Data as of 1 November 2022.
  27. This includes $2 million for Djibouti.