The Pacific region is one of the world’s most disaster-prone regions. Eight of the Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs) – Fiji, Vanuatu, Tonga, Solomon Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of Marshall Islands (RMI), Cook Islands and Niue – are among the top 15 most at risk of disasters globally. They also range among the top 20 countries when it comes to high-average annual disaster losses by GDP. The region faces rapid-onset events (e.g. cyclones, floods, earthquakes and volcanic activity) and slow-onset events (e.g. droughts). Earthquakes along the intersection of the Australian and Pacific tectonic plates increase the risk of tsunamis to low-lying island communities and coastal areas. The recent volcanic eruption in Tonga and consequential tsunami highlight the region’s vulnerability and its impact globally.
Vanuatu
Registered nurse Enok Tarip and Dr Randy carry vaccinations via cold chain to Pele Island.
UNICEF/Arlene BaxDuring the last decade, disasters impacted about a quarter of the population in PICTs. Since 2014, the region has suffered several significant disaster events, including tropical cyclones (the latest were Tropical Cyclone Harold in April 2020, hitting Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji and Tonga, Tropical Cyclone Yasa in December 2020, and Tropical Cyclone Ana in January 2021, both making landfall in Fiji); flash floods (Tuvalu, Kiribati, Solomon Islands, all in 2020); and volcanic eruptions in Vanuatu in 2017 and 2018, and in Tonga in 2022. Drought is currently emerging as a major challenge for Kiribati and Tuvalu, with a State of Emergency declared for Kiribati. This demonstrates the ongoing effects of El Niño/La Niña throughout the region.
The Pacific has some of the world’s smallest and least-developed national economies, which results in disasters – including the COVID-19 pandemic – having a more serious impact, eroding development gains. Some countries’ capacity to effectively respond to disasters is challenged, and the economic impacts of emergencies are significant. This is compounded by the large distances and logistical requirements for a timely response to acute humanitarian needs. In 2015, Tropical Cyclone Pam caused widespread damage to Vanuatu, amounting to 63 per cent of GDP. It displaced an estimated 65,000 people and negatively impacted the livelihoods of over 80 per cent of Vanuatu’s rural population. The 2015-2016 drought in RMI caused significant disruptions to national production, with a loss of 3.4 per cent of GDP. In 2016, Cyclone Winston struck Fiji and caused damage and losses equivalent to 31 per cent of GDP. In 2018, Cyclone Gita caused economic loss to Tonga equivalent to 37.8 per cent of GDP. In January 2022, Tonga was devastated by a volcanic eruption and tsunami, which resulted in economic damage of approximately US$90.4 million.
Pacific Island countries have shown leadership in mainstreaming climate change and disaster risk reduction. In 2018, the leaders of the Pacific Islands Forum, recalling their vision and values for the Pacific under the Framework for Pacific Regionalism through the Boe Declaration, recognized climate change as the single greatest threat to the livelihoods, security and well-being of the peoples of the Pacific, and they reaffirmed the region’s commitment to advance the implementation of the Paris Agreement. More recently, through the draft 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent, the region is committing to, inter alia, “…pursue innovative measures to address climate change impacts and disaster risk…”. Further, it specifically reflects the intent of such commitment under two strategic areas: ‘Peace and Security’ and ‘Climate Change and Disasters’.
North Efate, Vanuatu
Mairah Tom (64) from Lelepa Community, receives a COVID-19 vaccination from registered nurse Rex Turi.
UNICEF/Arlene BaxPacific Island countries have now experienced large-scale COVID-19 outbreaks, and many countries in the region covered by the OCHA Office of the Pacific Islands have significant community transmission. Efforts by governments and humanitarian actors – including OCHA and the Pacific Humanitarian Team – are ongoing to mitigate the pandemic’s immediate effects on the most vulnerable segments of the population, as well as to address social and economic impacts, mainly through development partners and donors. Pacific countries are suffering from the severe socioeconomic consequences of having closed borders to international travel and tightening regulations around internal movement and economic activity. Pandemic-related travel restrictions continue to pose challenges for humanitarian operations, including disruption to movements of cargo by air and sea, and movement of humanitarian personnel. This became apparent during Tonga’s volcanic eruption and the subsequent tsunami in early 2022, and during the Kiribati and Tuvalu drought response efforts (the two latter ongoing by end of 2022). Localization of humanitarian responses has become an imperative due to these operational realities. While some countries are opening up, especially in the South Pacific, there are still challenges related to visiting countries with active emergencies without significant quarantine restrictions. Vaccination is now widespread, mitigating the impact of COVID-19 in the region.
With the exception of Tokelau, all countries and territories covered by OCHA in the region had COVID-19 cases in the last 2.5 years. Countries are acting cautiously when planning to return to a pre-pandemic situation, as the majority have vulnerable and overstretched health systems not equipped to effectively absorb rapid increases in hospitalizations. Significant job losses (mainly in tourism) combined with a sharp decline in remittances (a major source of income in many Pacific nations) are pushing people into poverty and seriously affecting resilience and coping mechanisms in case of disaster.
Natural disasters and climate change affect the most vulnerable people in the Pacific, particularly women and children, who are disproportionally affected. This is often compounded by the practice of traditional gender roles, gender-based and sexual violence, and people with disabilities’ access to humanitarian assistance.
Solomon Islands
This team works on data validation and entry at the Central Field Hospital.
UNICEF/Qoriniasi Bale Jr.Projected situation in 2023 and beyond
The collective impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing climate and disaster shocks on PICTs will pose major challenges for the region in 2023 and beyond. There will continue to be high exposure to a wide variety of natural hazards (cyclones, droughts, earthquakes, floods, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions), geographic remoteness and isolation, and dispersion across a large area. For PICTs, climate change means a higher possibility of more frequent and more intense tropical cyclones, more flooding, a steady rise of sea levels and serious erosion of the coastline, as well as a decimation of fish stocks and biodiversity in general due to rising temperatures in the oceans, jeopardizing the livelihoods of millions of people. As most of these countries are already the world’s most disaster-prone countries, additional and stronger calamities will put even more strain on the available resources of affected countries, the United Nations, humanitarian and development actors, and donors.
For the South Pacific’s upcoming cyclone season 2022–23, Fiji Meteorological Service predicted between five and seven tropical cyclones, with one to four expected to be severe (Category 3 or above). This outlook is greatly driven by the return of a third consecutive La Niña event, which is quite exceptional, and there is an increasing chance of above-average rainfall and subsequent coastal inundations, particularly in the South Pacific region. In the North Pacific, La Niña will cause prolonged periods of drought (as already seen in Kiribati, Tuvalu and parts of Cook Islands).
References
- An Overview of Climate and Disaster Risk Financing Options for Pacific Island Countries, PIFS, May 2021
- Global Rapid Post Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report, World Bank GFDRR, February 2022
- See at https://www.forumsec.org/boe-declaration-on-regional-security/