Afghanistan

Afghan Returnees

From October 2023 onwards Afghanistan has experienced a massive increase in the arrival of undocumented and undocumented Afghans from Pakistan. Growing tensions between the two neighbouring countries, intensified by a spate of terrorist attacks in Pakistan attributed to the Afghan community and an increase in TTP assaults, have led to a renewed repatriation effort by the Pakistan government which has warned it will forcefully expel more than 1.3 million Afghans by July 2024. Between 15 September and late December 2023, some 471,000 documented refugees (27,500) and undocumented Afghans (414,300) crossed the border, with numbers increasing from less than 200 per day in early October to more than 25,000 by early November.³ In 2024, more than 423,000 additional undocumented Afghan returnees and 60,000 documented Afghan refugees are projected to return from Pakistan, including an anticipated spike in forced returns in advance of the Pakistan elections.

In many cases, returning families are given as little as 24 hours to pack up their lives and businesses after spending decades in Pakistan. There are numerous reports of both documented refugees and undocumented Afghans being harassed, arbitrarily arrested and detained in Pakistan before being transferred to the border and deported. Many returnees are arriving in Afghanistan with few possessions, assets or social support networks, and have been left traumatized by their experience. The self-identified priority needs of Afghan returnees include livelihoods, advice and counselling, medical treatment, and access to education. Shelter needs are considerable among recent-returnee households with three out of four households facing shelter issues.

The surge in returns has overstretched existing services in return locations, including Kabul, Kandahar and Nangarhar, and severely hampered humanitarian capacity to adequately respond. Durable solutions and basic human needs investments in communities that are receiving returnees will be required to ensure longer-term assistance and service provision and to facilitate the prospect of reintegration at a minimum. Priority longer-term support includes rehabilitation of basic infrastructure, construction of transitional and permanent shelter, de-mining and provision of local livelihood opportunities. While the humanitarian response cannot address the underlying infrastructure or housing needs, it can provide a critical bridge to stabilise vulnerable people and communities and allow them to move out of immediate crisis.

Moreover, humanitarian partners will continue coordinating with basic human needs and durable solutions actors to facilitate information sharing, including assessment data, tracking of population movements and information on conditions in areas of displacement and return to strengthen joint analysis and planning for durable solutions. Humanitarian actors will also engage with communities and authorities to raise awareness and support efforts to find sustainable solutions for people, including by strengthening referrals of cases to durable solutions and basic human needs actors.

Persons Living with Disabilities

In the current humanitarian crisis, persons with disabilities are disproportionately affected, and face physical, communication, institutional and attitudinal barriers preventing them from meaningfully accessing life-saving assistance and developmental opportunities. Among those with disabilities in Afghanistan, approximately 14 per cent experience severe disability, with higher prevalence in the western region, central highlands and south-eastern region.⁴ Moreover, decades of conflict have added to the number people with disability in Afghanistan. Unexploded ordinance (UXOs) or explosive remnants of war (ERW) have injured and potentially disabled over 44,000 individuals.⁵

Households with a member with a disability face heightened vulnerability, exhibiting 25 per cent higher debt levels (AFN 59,876 vs the national average of AFN 46,530) and increased reliance on livelihood coping strategies (32 per cent vs 22 per cent of the national average). Child labour is also more prevalent in such households (23 per cent reported at least one boy working outside compared with 15 per cent of the national average).⁶ Limited infrastructure accessibility, inadequate healthcare, discrimination, and stigma hinder their integration into society. Tailored support, inclusive policies, improved healthcare, and societal awareness are essential for addressing their vulnerabilities and enabling comprehensive and meaningful integration into Afghan society.

Rural Households

Fragile economic conditions and three years of drought-like conditions have significantly impacted rural households, exhibiting vulnerability across multiple indicators. The share of rural households reporting barriers to accessing public services remains at high levels, amidst increasing quality concerns but improved market functionality. Rural populations particularly face availability barriers due to limited infrastructure, investing more time travelling to or waiting at public service points. Overall, 28 per cent of rural households rely on unimproved water sources (in contrast to 17 per cent of urban households) and have nearly 10 per cent lower income per person (AFN 1,651 vs AFN 1,802 among urban households), making them more susceptible to disease outbreaks and less resilient to economic shocks.⁷

Climate and Natural Disaster Risks

Overall, it is expected that severe and unpredictable weather events and natural disasters will continue in 2024 and beyond due to the impact of climate change, with severe knock-on effects on infrastructure and agriculture, heightening the risks of displacement to urban areas. Afghanistan, ranked globally as the sixth most vulnerable and least prepared country to adapt to climate change,⁸ faces concerning climate signals, notably a significant 1.8° Celsius increase in mean annual temperature from 1951 to 2010—double the global average.⁹ In 2023, natural disasters affected people in 26 out of 34 provinces.¹⁰ The nation's susceptibility to earthquakes, floods, droughts, landslides, and avalanches perpetuates an annual impact on an average of 200,000 individuals.

With anticipated El Niño conditions in late 2023 and early 2024, Afghanistan grapples with both promise and risk. The potential for above-normal rainfall presents an opportunity for drought recovery but simultaneously raises the specter of flooding and crop pests. At the same time, multiple districts in the Northern, Northeastern and Southern regions are exhibiting considerable WASH needs due to high drought stress, limited access to safe drinking water, low sanitation coverage, reported acute malnutrition, acute watery diarrhoea (AWD) outbreaks, and service gaps. Unfortunately, the prospects for near-term improvement in these areas remain bleak without sustained and high-value investments in WASH infrastructure, including sanitation systems and water resource management.

Compounding these challenges is the limited funding available to humanitarian actors, compelling them to undertake more rigorous prioritization, and delineate better between humanitarian and basic human needs activities. To that end, the 2024 Afghanistan needs analysis incorporated clear boundary setting by narrowing down the scope to core humanitarian activities and stricter targeting based on severity and vulnerability.