Afghanistan

Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan Afghanistan 2024 / Humanitarian needs

Crisis overview

Two years have elapsed since the Taliban De-Facto Authorities (DfA) assumed control in 2021, with Afghanistan remaining caught in the aftermath of decades of war, recurrent and now- prolonged drought, and escalating poverty. The effects of political transition, economic contraction, and diminished development assistance have amplified protection risks and humanitarian needs at the household-level, with women and girls bearing the brunt of the impact.

Due to the multifaceted challenges facing Afghanistan, the humanitarian landscape remains complex, addressing it require concerted efforts from humanitarian and development actors, recognizing the unique features of the Afghan context.

Governance and Infrastructure

The current government in Afghanistan is internationally unrecognized and lacks a clear constitutional basis. DfA rule, which is based on a strict interpretation of Sharia Law to govern Afghanistan, is enforced through extensive social and cultural policies that restrict the rights of women and girls, place severe limitations on freedom of expression and assembly, and in many cases direct violence toward individuals with dissenting views. Following the political transition, there have been at least 800 documented instances of extrajudicial killing, torture and ill-treatment, arbitrary arrests and detention and enforced disappearance of former government officials and former Afghan National Defense and Security forces. UNAMA documented 1,600 violations in detention of detainee rights, of which 49 perc cent comprised torture or ill-treatment of detainees. Furthermore, journalists, activists, and members of minority communities have faced threats, harassment, violence, arrests and arbitrary detentions, raising serious concerns about the state of human rights in Afghanistan. Women and girls have faced significant setbacks in terms of access to education and employment, with many subjected to forced marriages and other forms of gender-based violence. Since August 2021, the DfA have issued more than 40 directives restricting women’s movement and ability to participate in education, the workforce, economy, and public life. In December 2022, the DfA banned Afghan women from working for national and international non-governmental organizations (NGOs), later extending the ban to Afghan women working for the UN in April 2023. While confronting and directly contravening humanitarian principles, these directives have been inconsistently applied, with humanitarian partners experiencing a degree of practical cooperation with the DfA which has enabled Afghan women to continue working across the entire spectrum of the response, albeit with some geographical differences, additional expenses and labour-intensive negotiations to secure local authorizations. Limited state capacity to manage challenges, including natural disasters and climate change, further complicates the efforts of humanitarian and non-humanitarian actors to meet the diverse needs of the population. Inadequate investment in infrastructure following the political transition and subsequent reductions in international development assistance, present challenges across all sectors, affecting water infrastructure, agricultural support systems, dams, flood protections, public health, education facilities, electrical and natural gas supplies, and roads. Deteriorating infrastructure, non-operational equipment, and inadequate maintenance of facilities at Kabul International Airport pose a significant hazard for inbound and outbound movement within the country. These challenges come as Afghanistan faces increased demand for services – the consequence of rapid population growth, continued high-levels of population movement and urbanization – and dwindling resources. Already, the capacity and coverage of basic services, such as healthcare, safe drinking water and education assistance, is inadequate to meet the needs of 23.7 million people.

Security

The security landscape in Afghanistan has dramatically changed since August 2021, with a significant decrease in active fighting; concomitant improvements in physical access for humanitarian actors; a reduction in conflict-related shocks to 2 per cent in 2023, down from 60 per cent in 2021; and a significant decrease in civilian casualties. Nevertheless, pockets of armed clashes persist between the National Resistance Front and DfA forces, concentrated almost exclusively in Panjshir Province, along with periodic attacks by Non-State Armed Groups (NSAGs), such as the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in northern provinces bordering Pakistan. The threat posed by the Islamic State of Khorasan (ISK) is also unlikely to be eradicated, and while no meaningful expansion in territorial control is foreseen, they are expected to retain their capacity to carry out mass casualty incidents. Indeed, while the overall number of attacks, perpetuated by ISK and undetermined actors, has declined since mid-August 2020, those occurring since then resulted in more civilian casualties, suggesting an increased in lethality, UNAMA reports. Despite the overall decrease in civilian casualties since the political transition, deliberate attacks employing improvised explosive devises (IEDs) continue to be a leading cause of civilian harm. Between August 2021 and May 2023, UNAMA recorded 3,774 civilian casualties, 75 per cent of which were caused by indiscriminate IED attacks in populated areas, including in places of worship, schools, and markets. Unexploded ordnance and landmines were the second-leading cause of civilian casualties during the period, demonstrating the continued threat that explosive hazards pose to the physical and mental wellbeing of the civilian population, affecting land use, impeding development and generating psychological fear among communities. Afghanistan has one of the highest levels of explosive hazard contamination in the world, with more than 60 people – mostly children – killed and maimed every month. While the legacy of IED contamination in Afghanistan begins before 2001, more recent conflict has continued to worsen the situation, with Uruzgan, Kunduz, Hilmand, Kandahar, Kunar, Badghis, Faryab, Nangarhar, Ghazni, Farah, Maidan Wardak, and Samangan provinces among the most severely impacted. Households dependent on agriculture-based livelihoods, including farmers, shepherds and herders, are particularly at risk of the threat posed by explosive hazards, as are asylum-seekers, refugees, vulnerable migrants and returnee populations that lack knowledge about the areas they are returning to. Based on Mine Action projections, 3.9 million people (including people living within 1 km of explosive hazards) will need mine action services in 2024.

Fragile Economic Recovery

Financial hardship brought about by economic decline, the reverberating effects of forty years of conflict, and recurrent drought-like conditions are the predominant drivers of humanitarian need in Afghanistan today. The World Bank reports that nearly half of the population—48 per cent—lives in poverty. Increased labour demands have outpaced supply resulting in a doubling of unemployment rates and a 25 per cent increase in underemployment. With one in three young males currently unemployed and women facing limitations to the right to work, both economic well-being and social cohesion are damaged. Fragile economic conditions are expected to continue contributing to acute food insecurity in 2024, affecting approximately 15.8 million people. Following a 20.7 per cent contraction in 2021, the economy contracted by a further 6.2 per cent in 2022. The economy has somewhat stabilized since then with decreased inflation in 2023, an easing of supply constraints, and wider availability of market goods. Between 1 January and 23 October 2023, the Afghani (AFN) appreciated by 20 per cent against the US dollar, making the Afghani the best performing currency in the world in the third quarter of 2023. However, these macro-economic improvements have not translated into better outcomes for all Afghans, with 80 per cent of families earning less than USD $1 a day per household member, leaving the vast majority of the population highly susceptible to shocks. In 2023, 65 per cent of families reported directly experiencing an economic shock, a 20 per cent increase compared to 2022, the Whole of Afghanistan Assessment (WoAA) reports. Unemployment rates remain high, particularly among Afghan women, with 58 per cent of women household members lacking employment opportunities. Moreover, women-headed households are more reliant on unstable sources of income – such as daily labour, loans, and donations – to make ends meet. Likewise, the WoAA revealed that women-headed households and recent returnees are showing a worsening of needs compared to 2022 and are more likely to resort to emergency coping strategies. In 2023, 31 per cent of women-headed households and 34 per cent of recent returnees utilised emergency coping strategies to meet their basic needs, compared to the national household average of 22 per cent.

Timeline of events
Timeline of events

December 2022 - November 2023

Food Security

While 2023 witnessed marginal improvements in food insecurity following the provision of substantial levels of food and livelihoods assistance over the 2022/2023 winter, Afghanistan continues to experience high rates of hunger and malnutrition, amid difficult climate conditions, limited income generating opportunities for its growing population and ongoing barriers to basic services. In 2024, an estimated 15.8 million people will experience crisis and emergency levels of food insecurity through March (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC 3+). The onset of El Niño in January 2024 is expected to increase agricultural availability and production, with above-average rainfall and a close-to average harvest anticipating during the coming year. However, households will still be recovering from years of drought-like conditions and will remain highly vulnerable. Ultimately, food security improvements will remain dependent on socio-economic conditions, as well as the availability of seed and fertilizers to support agricultural production at the right time and in the right locations.

Protection Crisis

Despite reduced conflict, Afghanistan remains a protection crisis, intensified by climate change-induced water scarcity. Women and girls continue to face heightened protection needs as a result of targeted policies which seek to restrict their movement and limit their involvement in life outside the home. Other protection risks include GBV, mines and unexploded ordnance contamination; unlawful impediments or restrictions to freedom of movement and forced displacement; risks to children including family and child separation, early marriage, and child labour; and psychological distress and emotional abuse. In 2023, following the bans that decreased access of women and girls to humanitarian and other services, the number of women and girls at heightened risk of GBV increased 30 per cent from 10.1 million to 13.1 million. In the absence of large-scale conflict, explosive ordnance—IEDs, explosive remnants of war, and landmines— remain leading causes of death. Climate and natural-disasters have contributed to internal and cross-border migrations, leaving many on the move searching for work, contributing to family separation. Moreover, child labour and marriage rates stand at approximately 19 and 39 per cent, respectively. The humanitarian crisis and its various stressors has had a severe impact on psychosocial wellbeing; nearly 60 per cent of households reported that a member of their household has experienced psychological distress, according to Protection Cluster monitoring. Further, the diverse ethnic and religious groups in Afghanistan face continued risks of violence, repression, discrimination, and marginalization, mirroring historical patterns. DfA directives targeting the media have also contributed to a narrowing of civil society space, while human rights violations against former government personnel and armed force members continue to be documented. In addition to gender, inequities by location, wealth, and legal status are acute, as are those related to age, ability, ethnicity, civil status, and sexual orientation. Together, these intersecting identities shape people’s access (or lack thereof) to basic services, decision making, representation, information, resources and protection. Population growth, internal displacement and migration, as well as high rates of cross-border returns, are placing additional pressure on already limited resources at the community level, especially livelihood opportunities and basic services, while also contributing to increased protection risks for the most vulnerable groups. Afghanistan’s population is estimated to pass 44.5 million in 2024, up from 36.8 million just five years ago, with 52 per cent of the population under 18 years old – one of the highest youth populations in the world. The population is expected to grow at 3.3 per cent per annum until 2030, one of the steepest rates in the region. Afghanistan's population faces increased strain on limited resources, livelihoods, and basic services. Additional population influxes, such as the one triggered by the forced and spontaneous return of undocumented Afghans from Pakistan, will only further compound an already fragile situation, while the unpredictability of movements across the Iranian border adds to uncertainties. In 2024, more than 978,000 Afghans are projected to return from Iran, with the majority returning to Herat, Kabul, Kunduz, and Mazar-e-Sharif. Furthermore, the threat of eviction remains omnipresent across several locations in Afghanistan, including in Badghis, Herat Kabul, Kandahar and Nangarhar, especially for those said to be residing on state land, increasing protection risks for protracted IDPs, conflict-affected populations, and residents of informal settlements, necessitating long-term reintegration solutions. Overall, an estimated 390,000 households reside in nearly 900 ISETs across the country.

Environment and Natural Disasters

Afghanistan is on the frontlines of climate change, ranking among the countries most at risk of crises and disasters due to their increasing frequency, intensity and severity, exposing millions of people to critical losses of livelihoods and assets. Afghanistan ranks fourth on the list of countries most at risk of a crisis, and sixth on the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index of countries most vulnerable and least prepared to adapt to climate change. Rising temperatures are rapidly altering precipitation patterns across Afghanistan, diminishing people’s access to water. Water scarcity impacts livelihoods, contributes to increased disease outbreaks and drives displacement. Three years of consecutive La Niña conditions, which brought below-average, irregular rainfall, resulted in drought conditions and floods across the country, threatening wellbeing of around 31 million people dependent on agriculture-based livelihoods to make ends meet. Desertification has affected more than 75 per cent of the total land area in the country’s northern, western and southern regions, reducing vegetation cover for pasture, accelerating land degradation and affecting crop farming in the last four decades. At the same time, flooding in 2023 affected nearly 27,600 people across 26 provinces, destroying agricultural land, crops, and infrastructure. While precipitation levels are expected to improve with the onset of El Niño, rain patterns could increase the likelihood of flooding of degraded land and landslides, or create fertile ground for crop pests. Future rain and snowfall trends will have a major impact on traditional livelihoods and settlement patterns. Already, water access is a critical concern, with 67 per cent of households reporting difficulties in accessing water, up from 48 per cent in 2021. Rural households are also having to travel further to meet their water needs –spending an average of 17 minutes to fetch water– while 42 percent of rural women in male-headed households cannot access water at all. Meanwhile, urban households are having to pay twice as much for water as than in previous years (up from AFN 158 to AFN 317). Moreover, multiple districts are now in catastrophic need of water and sanitation, where there is little prospect of near-term improvement. While El Niño may bring relief, it also poses sudden-onset disaster risks, requiring substantial infrastructure adaptations such as disaster risk prevention infrastructure. Afghanistan's susceptibility to earthquakes adds to the complexity, with recent seismic events underscoring the continuous risk. Located in a seismically active region, Afghanistan is prone to regular shocks, including those capable of causing substantial damage to homes and other critical civilian infrastructure, with densely populated urban areas such as Kabul and Jalalabad especially vulnerable. The vast majority of buildings in Kabul, and other Afghan cities, are adobe and masonry; approximately 30 per cent of these could be expected to collapse if expose to severe shaking, and 60 per cent would suffer damage. In October 2023, a series of three 6.3 magnitude earthquakes struck Herat province within the span of eight days, destroying and or causing major damage to around 40,000 homes and leaving 275,000 people in need of urgent shelter support. While unpredictable by their very nature, in 2024, humanitarian actors project that natural disasters, including floods, landslides and earthquakes, could affect 180,000 people.

Seasonality of events and risks

Seasonality of events and risks

Women and Girls

De-facto authority policies have effectively marginalized women and girls’ participation in education, employment and public life, whilse giving rise to additional protection needs. The restrictions imposed by the DfA have validated traditional gender norms and patriarchal culture, which have long reinforced discrimination against women and girls, increasing their vulnerability and leaving them disproportionately affected. Since the ban on female secondary school attendance was imposed, only 3 per cent of girls attend secondary school, while among boys aged 13-18, only 44 per cent are receiving a secondary education.

Institutionalizing these norms has led to increasing obstacles for women to access formal and informal legal mechanisms. Women and girls have become more vulnerable to greater disrespect, violence, and abusive social practices, and face increased family-and community-imposed restrictions. Due to restrictions in their ability to participate in the workforce and economy, women are becoming more dependent on humanitarian support. This has created a cycle of escalating needs, which in turn has further limited women’s economic capacities.

Peoples Priorities

To inform and support a people-centered response, the HNRP has incorporated priorities identified by Afghans To inform and support a people-centred response, priorities identified by Afghans have been incorporated into needs analysis and response planning through household and community surveys. Communities in Afghanistan have highlighted food as a top need which requires addressing, in addition to healthcare services, education, and WASH, according to the Afghanistan Community Voices and Accountability Platform. Nearly half of households stressed the importance of livelihoods support, followed by sufficient healthcare and access to safe drinking water and sanitation services. Together, these findings underscore the multi-dimensional and interwoven humanitarian and development challenges now confronting the population. Community feedback mechanisms continue to capture concerns related to women and girls’ access to education, basic services, and livelihoods opportunities. Particular attention must be paid to meeting the information needs of women and girls, and their ability to access appropriate feedback and complaints channels. Communities also highlighted the need for information on beneficiary selection and eligibility criteria to ensure that the most vulnerable groups, including women headed households and persons living with disabilities, are not left behind. Community engagement, consultation and information sharing with communities should continue to be strengthened to ensure transparency in aid distribution.

Context, impact and humanitarian needs

Crisis context
Crisis context
Shocks
Priority needs
Priority needs

as expressed by people in rural areas

Most Affected Groups

Exposure to shocks is felt across all population groups, highlighting the need for a response that is targeted accordingly. In the assessment of vulnerability, various indicators, such as income per household member, indebtedness, livelihood coping strategies, Food Consumption Score (FCS), reliance on unimproved water sources, adequacy of shelter, and school attendance, were utilized for comparison. Overall, the most vulnerable groups in Afghanistan include women and girls, recent returnees, households with a member with a disability, and rural households.

Despite improved food security due to lower commodity prices and a robust harvest season, certain households, including women-headed and recent returnees face ongoing challenges. Rural households, in particular, exhibit vulnerability across several indicators, with a higher reliance on unimproved water sources and lower income.

Women-headed households emerge as highly vulnerable, resorting to emergency coping strategies more frequently than male-headed households, and facing a diverse array of challenges including early marriage, lower Food Consumption Score, and higher child labour cases. Similarly, households with disabilities experience heightened vulnerability, marked by higher debt levels, increased reliance on negative coping mechanisms, and prevalent child labour.

References

  1. UNAMA, A barrier to securing peace: Human rights violations against former government officials and former armed force members in Afghanistan, August 2023. https://reliefweb.int/report/afghanistan/barrier-securing-peace-human-r…- against-former-government-officials-and-former-armed-force-membersafghanistan- 15-august-2021-30-june-2023-endarips.
  2. Humanitarian Access Working Group (HA WG), 2023. UN Women has reported 50 such directives, of which the HAWG has identified 41 directly linked to humanitarian operations. See UN Women, UNA MA and IOM, Summary Report of Country-wide Women’s Consultations, September 2023. https://asiapacific.unwomen.org/en/ digital-library/publications/2023/09/summary-report-of-country-wide-womensconsultations# view.
  3. 2023 Whole of Afghanistan Assessment (WoAA).
  4. Between 15 August and 31 December 2021, three suicide attacks caused 753 civilian casualties, while in 2022, eight suicide attacks caused 600 civilian casualties. In comparison, between 1 January and 14 August 2021, eight suicide attacks caused 102 civilian casualties and in 2020 16 suicide attacks caused 557 civilian casualties. UNAMA Human Rights, Impact of Improvised Explosive Devises on Civilians in Afghanistan, June 2023.
  5. Ibid.
  6. Ibid.
  7. Country Task Force on Monitoring and Reporting, 2023.
  8. World Bank, Afghanistan Welfare Monitoring Survey, October 2023. https:// reliefweb.int/report/afghanistan/afghanistan-welfare-monitoring-survey-awmsround- 3-october-2023.
  9. World Bank, Afghanistan Development Update, October 2023. https://reliefweb. int/report/afghanistan/afghanistan-development-update-october-2023-uncertaintyafter- fleeting-stability-october-2023.
  10. World Bank, Afghanistan Economic Monitor, October 2023. https://reliefweb.int/ report/afghanistan/afghanistan-economic-monitor-october-30-2023.
  11. WoAA 2023.
  12. IPC, Afghanistan: Acute Food Insecurity Situation for October 2023 and Projection for November 2023 - March 2024, December 2023. https://www.ipcinfo. org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/en/c/1156740/?iso3=AFG.
  13. Afghanistan Nutrition Cluster. (2023). Risk Analysis Framework for Protection Mainstreaming into nutrition programs.
  14. UNICEF, Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey, June 2023. https://www.unicef.org/ afghanistan/reports/afghanistan-multiple-indicator-cluster-survey-mics-2022-2023.
  15. Afghanistan Protection Analysis Update, July 2023. https://www. globalprotectioncluster.org/publications/1487/reports/protection-analysis-update/ afghanistan-protection-analysis-update.
  16. Informal Settlement Monitoring, December 2023.
  17. INFORM Risk Index, 2024. https://drmkc.jrc.ec.europa.eu/inform-index.
  18. Notre Dame Gain Index. https://gain.nd.edu/our-work/country-index/rankings/.
  19. According to the 2022 FSAC Strategic Response Plan, 70 per cent of Afghans rely on domestic agricultural production for their food or income.
  20. World Bank, Afghanistan Capacity Development for Natural Resource Management, 2018. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/ pt/870281529935471121/pdf/Rangelands-and-Forests-in-Afghanistan-The- Foundation-of-Sustainable-Rural-Development.pdf.
  21. IOM DTM, 2023. https://afghanresponse.iom.int/report.
  22. 2023 WoAA.
  23. 2023 WoAA.
  24. OCHA , Afghanistan Earthquake Contigency Plan, 2020. https://www.unocha. org/publications/report/afghanistan/afghanistan-earthquake-contingency-planissued- nov-2020.
  25. Revised Herat Earthquake Response Plan, November 2023. https://reliefweb.int/ report/afghanistan/afghanistan-revised-herat-earthquake-response-plan-october- 2023-march-2024-issued-november-2023-endarips.
  26. World Bank, Afghanistan Development Update, October 2023. https://reliefweb. int/report/afghanistan/afghanistan-development-update-october-2023-uncertaintyafter- fleeting-stability-october-2023.